Quite a few GEFS members that are getting me the teeniest bit excited. This is Number 5.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP05EU06_126_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP05EU06_126_2.png

There is no way in hell that setup would be dry! ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

They certainly look like that to me too, Joe.

This current period of model watching is the most fascinating that I can recall since late November 2010, when the models were starting to firm-up on the synoptic set-up that led to the beginning of the major freeze. We have been teased at times since now and again, but this feels different somehow, to me anyway.

Yes, consistent ensemble mean at the moment.

I agree about it being more likely that it's a northerly flow; in London with an easterly it's generally quite cloudy and generally you don't see overnight minima in the -3 to -5 range, certainly without snow cover.

Hi Joe, the ensemble mean is pretty much the same as yesterday's 12z.

Certainly a fascinating period of model watching. I'm oscillating between keen anticipation and trying to be disinterested (not very successfully) until everything gets into the more reliable timeframe. I'd say the dramatic shift from mild to very cold on Thursday is a given but it's always been a mug's game to try to predict showery activity and disturbances until a day or two out.

Absolutely agree. 😊

It does look like the coldest December period since 2010 is possible based on the output of the last few days but the bar is set pretty low on that one. The ensemble data set still says colder than average with a decent chance of one or more spells of wintry weather. A couple more days will probably be needed before we can have high confidence about wintry weather at the end of the working week. It is however nice to have something to get excited about as long as we realise there is a chance that it may come to nothing, and I think most people do realise that.

Yes white meadows -glanced at 0h runs which i thought were heading for slight downgrade.Went out for a three  hour walk  came back to find a good GFS with LP much better paced than the 0h and on  top of that some very good GEFS  ensembles both later this week and out in FI.

Will be waiting for the fax output later today(and country file forecast)

I think someone's being a little optimistic there

Just looking at the GFS it shows a decent amount of shower activity for the coasts, as you'd expect in a northerly type set up. Outside of this you're looking at maybe some more organised showers penetrating inland but down South conditions would be marginal - might well see falling snow but interesting amounts seem unlikely here at this stage. Scotland, maybe exposed parts of Northern England and higher parts of Wales etc could get some decent falls though as things stand.

Still, get enough cold air over us and then see what happens - surprises can and do crop up that brings more widespread snowfall. Think it was January last year we had a LP drifting down from the North West that seemed likely to bring snow to some in the North and possibly the Midlands and in the end my neck of the wood got 5-6cm out of it, which wasn't really expected initially.

Hopefully we are at least getting closer to being confident in the initial transition to a Northerly - just what happens shortly after that that's up in the air. Could still be a 2-3 snap and flatten out, although even if this does happen there's enough amplification in the pattern that I dare say it wouldn't be long before another window of opportunity would arise

I often see this phrase on these threads "the other side"; I presume this refers to NW?

Taking all of the models into account I can see why they might reach that conclusion. It seems the most likely based on the current output but other areas are available :-)

Yes, thanks for that stating of the blatantly obvious. 

Similiar theme to previous runs on the 12z GFS so far (out to day 5)

For the end of the week GFS 12h seems to have LP further east than  the 06h with  slightly more N/NW flow.Will see how the ENS shape up.

Very wintry GFS and MetO 12z output so far. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

overnight Thursday into Friday is looking “interesting” for some. 

GFS 12z seems to be following a similar pattern to the 06z as it heads into FI.

Yes very snowy run for Scotland even some snow for the south. Another snowy reload past day 10? stunning winter charts from the GFS once again. 

Wouldnt be at all surprised for there to be some thundersnow in places. Cracking runs! 

Sounds good!