Can you get buried under rain?

ECM still doesn't want to get involved in any cold for the southern half of the country - two dry and chilly days and then cold and wet and soon turning a tad milder and wet. No thanks Reading. Try harder on the 00Z!

Yes, you’re right Joe. Simply put less cold uppers are needed in a continental flow but also to an extent when 500hPa heights are lower. Parameters such as 850-1000hPa partial thicknesses and dew point values are especially useful I find but they are not quickly available for the ECMWF charts.

Having said that I could post every parameter under the sun and Beast would still take the most dismissive negative view.  I can fully understand why but its not always objective.

For those who think ECM t+168 would bring rain... 😳😳😉

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20171210-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-f/20171210-1800z.html

As a rule in these slider-type situations the main dividing line is which side of the track of the LP you are.  Anywhere to the south and west is almost certainly going to see rain. Anywhere well to the east and north should get something wintry, especially with elevation. It also depends on how much the cold air gets mixed out by the turbulence of the approaching LP and trough, and conditions near the surface (snow cover). Even the timing of the arrival of the precipitation can matter: overnight frost then incoming cloud is preferable to the front arriving in the afternoon.

It's all a bit academic at this range but I'd guess you might be safe to draw a line from NE Scotland down towards the East Midlands and then to The Wash. East of that something wintry, especially with height. Anywhere else I'd guess cold rain with maybe transient sleet.

I may be overly optimistic - I wonder what Darren's view is?

Actually, bin those snow depth maps - it is rain.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20171210-1800z.html

😂

Fine details. 

As Darren has said before and I could kick myself for not saying it the important part with the sliders is to have south easterlies at the surface so that the low drags colder and drier air ahead. 

This has been said on the other side 

I'm still struggling to see why the charts are showing lows "sliding" to the southeast when there is no block (either surface or upper) to the east to stop them heading on their usual track. What is steering the jet in the absence of a block?

Are you in contact with the "dear departed"?

There's enough analysis on TWO, thanks!

Was there much of a block in March 2013? I thought we had modest "steering" height rises to the north but I could be VERY wrong.

Country file forecast not much detail on any snow but coastal showers mentioned and middle spine of country largely dry.Temps around 3-5c.S eems a bit of a downgrade compared to what GFS charts  are suggesting.

I'll say it again - lack of heights to the south is key.

when did a TV forecast ever show conditions as severe as a GFS chart? :)

The professionals know their onions.  NWly, classically dry for the majority.  Wintry showers in prone areas, snow above 1000 feet. Cold couple of days then gradually less cold with risk of rain, snow on northern hills.  Typical winter fayre.

I’ve lived here long enough to know that a setup like this would deliver snow to inland areas, even if it isn’t very much. I appreciate it won’t necessarily snow in your area.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_2.png

Without intending to sound arrogant I’m not sure why anyone would expect the Countryfile forecast to say anything different about a northerly flow at that range. “Wintry showers on the coast” is the obvious phrase. 

And I’m also not suggested that the above charts won’t change. They might. 

Indeed. 

Snow above 1000ft?  It looks colder than the northerly we just had. Did you put in an extra zero (or two)? Most of the charts show a substantial swathe of the country with a snow risk to essentially sea level. 

True for GFS but definitely not for ECM. The "precip type" charts linked above showed "mixed rain and snow" at best for all in England except the highest hills of Yorkshire. 

lol your getting a battering for this comment and rightly so , you should know better Rodg....Over the last few days I’ve watched you tube weather forecasts from snowy periods around the U.K.  The detail shown on a Sunday is nothing like what’s shown 5 days later....it’s impossible to be accurate 

you should know that

Based on their snow maps I’m not convinced by their output to be honest. 

Spot on

on the recent output id put money on with you its snow to low levels