Good point although I suspect the WRF might be erring too much the other way, given that it also shows rain in northern Scotland away from the high ground, even when the -10C isotherm makes landfall!

An interesting southerly track for a low, but the difference of even dozens of miles for that track will make a big difference to people's experience of the event. I don't see lowland snow accumulating to the north of it as a certainty, either, it's not that cold.

Medium and longer term, the models are reluctant to show high pressure to our north and east, so any prolonged cold spell seems unlikely, even if the bookies have cut odds on a white Christmas. Just a rather unconvincing mid to north Atlantic ridge on ECM at T+240, a long way off.

Well, looking at the 00Z charts from GFS and ECM this morning, I would punt on the weather being seasonal, rather than stellar  - either too dry or on the wrong side of marginal for lying snow. One of the issues (which others have alluded to) is the lack of a deep cold pool to tap into - so even when the synoptics look perfect, the uppers are not quite cold enough for lowland snow.

The hills and mountains in Scotland, Wales and northern England, should get something though and the Staffordshire moorlands should also be favoured.

On the other hand, it is a pleasant change to just get something seasonal (provided it is not just relentless cold rain, which it does not look like being).

I’m not sure what makes more nervous at the moment, waking up and checking the cricket score or waking and checking the models...

I think that the key issue here is whether heights rise to the north of the projected track of the LP predicted for Sunday.  ECM doesn’t show any and it has the Azores high slightly further north: the inevitable effect is the LP doesn’t really slide at all. GFS has so little energy in the first slider that it misses to the west and fizzles.  As you say UKMO is in the middle.

Until the models work out whether there’s any WAA ahead of the potential LP/slider they won’t know the track. Assuming it is a slider then the nothing/snow/rain boundaries won’t be resolved until very much closer to the (any) event.

Beyond that it looks like at least cool to cold but I think this weekend’s developments are key in determining the mid-term prospects for extended cold v something more messy.

Either way it’s fascinating.

Yes, a very good ECM op run IMO if it's snow one is wanting to see.

Slight shift in the LP? or looks like SW of UK/Wales and IRELAND goes back to a having NW wind direction come Saturday!? Cold northerly doesn't reach us until Thursday night - thus one day of a northerly and wintry showers if we get any and that's Friday!? Looks pretty poor for frost as well. Thankfully after this one day event it looks like there could be more to come.

Huge upgrade for snow up north!!  Marginal for the Chilts but v. interesting times.

This Azores HP is the problem is it not? 

Nice to see a proper split PV

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000

The latest METO faxes suggest suggest some enhanced shower activity partic for north Scotalnd

Seems to be rather a shortage of cold air around on this GFS run. Looks pretty good for high ground in the north. Also signs of renewed ridging as shown on ECM.

Edit: cracking easterly in FI.... for Italy 

Agree re shortage cold air-neither the Sunday slider or the Wednesday one 206h seem to have cold enough uppers -the coldest uppers being Friday/Sat this weekend.

Pretty uninspiring run really, although we end up with a UK high and lower heights over the Med/SE Europe which is not a bad pattern really, at least more promising than the Euroslug of yore. With my optimistic hat on I'd say it's setting up for a Scandi high :)

An odd looking chart~!? This ends with HP.

Friday afternoon looks good for any snow showers in SW but will most probably be soft hail or sleet!? - Still the spine' of country remains dry.

The ECM ensemble mean at T+240 shows a remarkably strong signal for mid-Atlantic upper and surface ridge and a trough in the North Sea. The usual caveats that the mean can be a blend of radically different outcomes will still apply - the clusters will be interesting.

The 850s look OK as well - not sure about the boot over Nth America trying to kick the mild wave our way...

Agreed, its looking good for snow for us. Put it this way, I wouldn't be betting against it happening for here.