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Rob K
05 December 2017 16:10:21

UKMO is flattening the pattern.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Looks OK to me at 120 hours, haven't seen the 144 yet. Similar to the GFS really but maybe about 12 hours behind (looks similar to GFS 108hr frame)


 


GFS brings colder air in behind Sunday's low giving a spell of back edge snow even for the south, perhaps. Pretty consistent pattern now.


 


Edit: 144hr UKMO now out. Not quite as much buckling in the jet as GFS but still not exactly flat.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
05 December 2017 16:16:21
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.gif 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
05 December 2017 16:16:28

ukmo at 144 not quite as good as gfs but not much in it. Wrong side of marginal at the moment though for many . frustrating 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
05 December 2017 16:18:28


ukmo at 144 not quite as good as gfs but not much in it. Wrong side of marginal at the moment though for many . frustrating 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Frustrating for those of us down south but I look forward to some epic snowdrift pictures from the Pennines 


 


Maxima of -3C for parts of the north on Tuesday on this run. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1714.gif 


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
some faraway beach
05 December 2017 16:25:14


 


We had a situation where one or two people thought even a marginal positive height anomaly over Scandinavia / Greenland necessarily implied high latitude blocking. It led to quite a lot of misplaced excitement if I recall correctly. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


But Rob K wasn't falling into the trap that "one or two people" (i.e. Matt Hugo) did, of assuming that pressure higher than normal is the same as high pressure. In fact, I can't think of anyone but Matt Hugo having made that blunder on here.


I found the chart Rob posted just a welcome reminder that there must be a few runs out there showing synoptics favourable for proper cold (while bearing in mind that some, inevitably, aren't).


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Tractor Boy
05 December 2017 16:32:46

 


Frustrating for those of us down south but I look forward to some epic snowdrift pictures from the Pennines  


Maxima of -3C for parts of the north on Tuesday on this run. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1714.gif 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I think it was Steve Murr that also mentioned this earlier, but sliders do have form in correcting south as the event approaches. Fingers crossed.



Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
warrenb
05 December 2017 16:33:21
So meto have released all these warnings for snow and ice, which BBC have just retweeted, and their own model now shows you need to be near a mountain for it to happen. Looking at GFS, it is pretty flat as well.
Rob K
05 December 2017 16:34:34

So meto have released all these warnings for snow and ice, which BBC have just retweeted, and their own model now shows you need to be near a mountain for it to happen. Looking at GFS, it is pretty flat as well.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


The warnings are for Friday into Saturday, not Sunday. Totally separate events. Friday = convective showers on the NW wind, which is quite deep cold. Sunday = low pressure arriving from the west and engaging with the cold air.


Friday will be cold enough that just about anywhere that gets precipitation has a fair chance of seeing snow, even in the SW.


It's the Sunday frontal event that looks like being north only, at this stage.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
05 December 2017 16:36:55

Weather type GFS Th 07.12.2017 18 GMT


Cold shows it hand on Thursday evening


 


Weather type GFS Fr 08.12.2017 18 GMT


Friday showers running down the SW into some central and southern areas


Weather type GFS Su 10.12.2017 06 GMT


Sunday morning the front hits the UK turning snow the further North you are


Weather type GFS Su 10.12.2017 18 GMT


Sunday evening , rain for most , moderate snow for parts of the North


 


Weather type GFS Mo 11.12.2017 06 GMT


Monday morning as the front moves away . Snow on the back edge


 


All  J F F of course


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Snowedin3
05 December 2017 16:38:00

So meto have released all these warnings for snow and ice, which BBC have just retweeted, and their own model now shows you need to be near a mountain for it to happen. Looking at GFS, it is pretty flat as well.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


 


Pretty sure the warnings are for the snow shower risk on Friday and Saturday?


 


Also, back in Jan 2013 when we had 6" across most the south and southwest, met office and bbc didn't allude to an event happening until 48 hours before. 


the bbc forecasts are available on youtube.


 


You cant trust a model more than 48 hours out. IT . WILL . CHANGE!


 


 


Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Tim A
05 December 2017 16:39:09
Met Office automated forecasts show some snow here Sunday and Monday and a high of 2c and 3c respectively so MOGREPS must back cold hanging on for central and northern areas of UK.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Rob K
05 December 2017 16:39:37

Anyway, my money's on the GEM version of the track for Sunday 



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
05 December 2017 16:45:29


Anyway, my money's on the GEM version of the track for Sunday 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Agreed - GEMs got it about right!


Simply going on the performance for Thursdays low, I wouldn’t put too much on a correction South now for Sunday’s system although it could happen - sometimes these tracks aren’t nailed until 12hrs or less.i


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
05 December 2017 16:52:56


 


 


I think it was Steve Murr that also mentioned this earlier, but sliders do have form in correcting south as the event approaches. Fingers crossed.



Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 


Steve Murrr = Murr Sausage?


 


At least the GFS ends with potential Scandi high building but then we lost the Greenland block. 



 


But still have blocking over the N. POLE.


 



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


warrenb
05 December 2017 16:55:12
Heights to the north have gone, on both Meto and GFS. You could see it happening on previous runs progressively on each run.
Rob K
05 December 2017 17:08:42

It's starting to look as though a less cold interlude is likely next week, but again we see signs of pressure rising in Scandinavia as we head towards Christmas.

Plenty of interest before then, if not for southerners (maybe).


 


Short ensemble for London out, note the 12C spread of 850s as early as Sunday, reflecting the uncertainty in the track of that low!



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
05 December 2017 17:32:03
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/run/2017120512/arpegeeur-1-78.png?12 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
roger63
05 December 2017 17:45:44


 


There is an issue with 850s but I don't think that's it. The issue seems to be that different scenarios have generally very different upper temperature thresholds. As a general guide these are the T850 threasholds for a few different scenarios:

Windless secondary low cold sector: -1C


Ana Warm/Occluded front: -3C


Convective snow Inland: -6C


Fast moving Ana cold front: -6C


Convective snow on coast: -8C


Kata front: -10C


 


The issue is that people use, rightfully, a benchmark of -6C or -7C for snow showers which works but then assume that its transferable to frontal snow events. It isn't. The vast majority of frontal snow events allow substantially warmer uppers than convective snow. The main reasons for this is humidity and wind strength. Convective snow is often associated with strong winds and a moist environment which means evaporational cooling is virtually non existent especially if you reside near the coast. However for the case of a windless secondary low with heavy precipitation falling into dry air; evaporational cooling is very significant indeed. Evaporation is ridiculously efficient at removing heat from the atmosphere; indeed snow is possible with positive uppers if the precipitation lasts long enough in a windless, increasing humidity, environment.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Quantum great post- full of very practical figures to help understanding of the key question rain or snow applied to different synoptics

GlenH
05 December 2017 17:49:35
Looking like a decent covering for many on Sunday:

http://www1.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/126_35.gif 
Rob K
05 December 2017 17:57:01

Quite a wide spread on the GFS ensemble. Op and control both on the milder side, and quite a few runs keep it cold.


 


As mentioned above, lots of spread on Sunday/Monday. Five runs showing some snow for London.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
05 December 2017 18:05:44
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_48_1.png 

I’m not surprised it has been named as Caroline.
bowser
05 December 2017 18:26:40
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_48_1.png 

I’m not surprised it has been named as Caroline.


been watching this aspect too. I'm due to fly into abz at 2030. Could be an interesting approach.

The Beast from the East
05 December 2017 18:27:28

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0


ECM 120


Still a long way out so it will change more south hopefully!


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
05 December 2017 18:29:00

ECM very similar to GFS, so some progress but UKMO not so good with the slider


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
05 December 2017 18:31:27

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0


Cant complain. the jet is diving south


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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