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I like the way ECM has ended up this morning
No grumbles from me with the charts so far
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Yes, they look pretty good to me too Marcus.
The models sure look quite a bit better for cold prospects at the moment than they did at any time in either of the last two Decembers.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=2
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=102&mode=2
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=108&mode=2
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=2
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=2
Sunday slider shifted south above snow prediction from GFS which changes regional distribution.
Risk is that LP eventaully finished up too far south!
I'm not liking the southwards repositioning of the slider on Sunday. Terrible stuff
GFS 06z seems to have moved Sunday’s slider further south still. Excellent IMBY but I’ve seen this before and it ended up sliding into France in the end.
Originally Posted by: Notty
Yes I have a feeling that might happen. Thus far and no further, please!
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
I am and may long it continue!!
Sunday looks good on the 06Z but Tuesday Wednesday next week, everything flattens and it rains.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Yes, GFS is a much better run for the south, it gives an all-snow event for the south-east (although dry/drier up north). As you say, these systems often end up 200 miles further south than progged five days out so this one could end up covering the orchards of Normandy in snow while leaving England in the dry/cold zone.
Still, I'd rather risk it – anything is better than a cold rain fest.
Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum
Deep in FI by then Maunder.
Posted elsewhere.
Originally Posted by: SEMerc
Would be nice but sadly it's the ICON – a cannon fodder model as I understand it?
The GFS 06z output is astonishing for the first stage of winter in my opinion. The max temp for most is progged at 5/6 degrees throughout with a few ice days thrown in following the possible snow event on Sunday. Certainly seasonal and plenty of time for other features to develop.
Let's hope the trend to an elongated cold spell continues
Meto spot on with their recent updates so far.
This doesn't look flattened:
It's only as we move into the low-res part that the pattern really looks like changing - and that's thanks to some serious cyclogenesis of a low near to Newfoundland (it absolutely bombs, deepening from a bog-standard low into a monster within about 36 hours)
IMBYism
Originally Posted by: Islander
Hope it goes further south - Looks like it will bring rain and the rain will turn to snow as it clears:
Turning very cold behind the slider front as it clears SE-wards! Perhaps heavy wet snow but not settling if the ground is already wet and only settling on hills?
Looking more promising for us in the south but many could just end up with cold rain or sleet south of M4!?
It will start off as snow then turn to rain and as it leaves it may turn back to snow and settle. Who knows!?
Can anyone help me spot Portsmouth on this map?
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.gif
Monday looks cold over the snow fields of Oxfordshire .............no doubt will change .Its in touching distance but I have a nagging feeling it will edge further SW nearer the time
NMM keeps the snow line a little further north, but further south than yesterday. This is the 00Z, 06z is on the way out.