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David M Porter
06 December 2017 09:32:20


I like the way ECM has ended up this morning 


No grumbles from me with the charts so far 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes, they look pretty good to me too Marcus.


The models sure look quite a bit better for cold prospects at the moment than they did at any time in either of the last two Decembers.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Notty
06 December 2017 10:05:20
GFS 06z seems to have moved Sunday’s slider further south still. Excellent IMBY but I’ve seen this before and it ended up sliding into France in the end.
Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
moomin75
06 December 2017 10:07:05
One word sums up GFS 6Z. WOW!!!!!!
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Saint Snow
06 December 2017 10:12:19

I'm not liking the southwards repositioning of the slider on Sunday. Terrible stuff



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
06 December 2017 10:13:07

GFS 06z seems to have moved Sunday’s slider further south still. Excellent IMBY but I’ve seen this before and it ended up sliding into France in the end.

Originally Posted by: Notty 


Yes I have a feeling that might happen. Thus far and no further, please!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Islander
06 December 2017 10:13:36


I'm not liking the southwards repositioning of the slider on Sunday. Terrible stuff


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I am and may long it continue!! 


Guernsey
Maunder Minimum
06 December 2017 10:14:10

Sunday looks good on the 06Z but Tuesday Wednesday next week, everything flattens and it rains.


New world order coming.
Rob K
06 December 2017 10:17:57


I'm not liking the southwards repositioning of the slider on Sunday. Terrible stuff


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

The pattern has been for a series of lows getting progressively further north so even if this one slips south it could still be next time lucky...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
06 December 2017 10:18:49


I'm not liking the southwards repositioning of the slider on Sunday. Terrible stuff


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I am liking it. As longer it doesn't correct too far south.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Downpour
06 December 2017 10:20:52


 


Yes I have a feeling that might happen. Thus far and no further, please!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Yes, GFS is a much better run for the south, it gives an all-snow event for the south-east (although dry/drier up north). As you say, these systems often end up 200 miles further south than progged five days out so this one could end up covering the orchards of Normandy in snow while leaving England in the dry/cold zone. 


 


Still, I'd rather risk it – anything is better than a cold rain fest. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
06 December 2017 10:22:22


Sunday looks good on the 06Z but Tuesday Wednesday next week, everything flattens and it rains.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


Deep in FI by then Maunder. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
SEMerc
06 December 2017 10:23:47

Posted elsewhere.


https://www.netweather.tv/forum/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/iconeu_uk1-1-120-0.png?06-11&key=0eb4754ec9306ddd32def2064a3d4ca6065e6d8b47259d23a1befcab76ddb26a

Downpour
06 December 2017 10:27:15


Posted elsewhere.


https://www.netweather.tv/forum/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/iconeu_uk1-1-120-0.png?06-11&key=0eb4754ec9306ddd32def2064a3d4ca6065e6d8b47259d23a1befcab76ddb26a


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


 


Would be nice but sadly it's the ICON – a cannon fodder model as I understand it?


Chingford
London E4
147ft
soperman
06 December 2017 10:30:58

The GFS 06z output is astonishing for the first stage of winter in my opinion.  The max temp for most is progged at 5/6 degrees throughout with a few ice days thrown in following the possible snow event on Sunday. Certainly seasonal and plenty of time for other features to develop.


Let's hope the trend to an elongated cold spell continues


Meto spot on with their recent updates so far.

Saint Snow
06 December 2017 10:34:54


Sunday looks good on the 06Z but Tuesday Wednesday next week, everything flattens and it rains.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


This doesn't look flattened:



 



 


It's only as we move into the low-res part that the pattern really looks like changing - and that's thanks to some serious cyclogenesis of a low near to Newfoundland (it absolutely bombs, deepening from a bog-standard low into a monster within about 36 hours)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Steve Murr
06 December 2017 10:40:52
Morning All

We have come a long way in 24 hours, that long way being down the M5 in terms of track

The 00z ECM from yesterday looks pretty isolated now although could just about still be in the mix-
The exit point of the low looks to be around Kent at the moment however in all reality with 96 hours to go it wouldnt be a surprise to see that be IOW-
If the system stays shallow then the cotswolds are possibly in the £ seat although track adjustments may see the Alpine regions of Devon may be the box seat as a 20/1 outsider...

S
Solar Cycles
06 December 2017 10:48:44


I'm not liking the southwards repositioning of the slider on Sunday. Terrible stuff


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

What I alluded to earlier the correction is being overstated IMO. All eyes on the 00z later to see if the southwards trend continues or the 06z is a rogue run. 

Gooner
06 December 2017 10:52:33

Weather type GFS Su 10.12.2017 18 GMT


Weather type GFS Mo 11.12.2017 00 GMT


IMBYism


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
06 December 2017 10:54:50
It does seem like the GFS is picking up a new trend to a flatter more Atlantic driven pattern in the latter stages now. On this run some blocking does build to the north but not close enough to the UK. Will be interesting to see whether the ECM ensembles also show this warm-up.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
06 December 2017 10:55:04


 


I am and may long it continue!! 


Originally Posted by: Islander 


 


Hope it goes further south - Looks like it will bring rain and the rain will turn to snow as it clears:


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


 


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


 


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Turning very cold behind the slider front as it clears SE-wards! Perhaps heavy wet snow but not settling if the ground is already wet and only settling on hills?



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
06 December 2017 10:56:40


Weather type GFS Su 10.12.2017 18 GMT


Weather type GFS Mo 11.12.2017 00 GMT


IMBYism


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Looking more promising for us in the south but many could just end up with cold rain or sleet south of M4!?


It will start off as snow then turn to rain and as it leaves it may turn back to snow and settle. Who knows!?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
06 December 2017 10:58:07

Can anyone help me spot Portsmouth on this map?  



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
06 December 2017 10:58:44

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.gif


Monday looks cold over the snow fields of Oxfordshire .............no doubt will change .Its in touching distance but I have a nagging feeling it will edge further SW nearer the time


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
06 December 2017 11:06:24

NMM keeps the snow line a little further north, but further south than yesterday. This is the 00Z, 06z is on the way out.


 



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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