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NMM keeps the snow line a little further north, but further south than yesterday. This is the 00Z, 06z is on the way out.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
How ironic - So expect to hear north of the M4 a lot in the forecasts - Interesting how a motorway can separate our weather.ha! The fact the snow is literally from the M4 northwards.
As expected the track of Sundays slider is completely unknown...options also include it not developing!
Maybe the gridpoints are along that line!
Originally Posted by: Steve Murr
The M4 runs very close to the 51.5 degrees north line of latitude, so I suspect that is the reason. (The underlying grid of the GFS model is still 0.5 degrees AFAIK, although certain variables are higher resolution.)
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.gif
Monday looks cold over the snow fields of Oxfordshire .............no doubt will change .Its in touching distance but I have a nagging feeling it will edge further SW nearer the time
Originally Posted by: Gooner
The fact it's virtually to scale ha!
06z not quite there yet but it does look like NMM has also shifted south.
It's about 0.15 deg horizontal out to 10 days internally.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/doc.php
On TWO I can flip between data sets without recompiling. At the moment the 0.25 deg (highest available) data sets are used out to 96, then 0.5 deg to 180 and then 1 deg to 384. NCEP had capacity problems when they introduced the 0.25 deg data sets a few years ago. I suggested they should only make the higher res sets available at short range because that is where the real value is. However they were already committed to going out to 384 and had budget to upgrade their infrastructure.
Quick question since I am at work - please could someone update with the latest on the Stratosphere and forecasts?
I am sure that will give us a clue as to whether the pattern is expected to flatten in the coming weeks or not.
Strat continue to look cold:
NMM 06Z... a further correction south. Going going gone?
Thanks for the Strat update Brian. Only comment I shall make is that the 10hPa output has the centre well to the east of its normal residence and is that the start of a Start warming appearing in the North Pacific headed towards Alaska?
A nice cold NWLy feeding snow inland
Can anyone help me spot Portsmouth on this map?
Probably about the only moment I don't want snow so should verify. Someone traveling by car from Oxford to meet me for a lunchtime Christmas drink!
Just going back to the GFS ensemble, after the uptick in temperatures at the end, the cluster has trended colder again on the 06Z, although the control and operational are still on the milder side. For Sunday's low, the operational run was just about the coldest (for London) and therefore presumably at the southern end of the range.http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017120606/graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.gif
Still only 20% give snow for London from Sunday's low.
GEFS again has blocking to the East and north east, but looks like a milder wetter period before that
Personally a cold easterly at Christmas would be perfect. I cant remember the last time I experienced a cold Christmas day
IMBYism
ECM ensemble. The 00Z GFS was as expected very mild compared to the mean, but there are a lot more mild members than there were last night.https://fs.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2017_12/28F82FA7-2253-4964-81B4-072C5DE2965E.gif.478f580a5448a6bc82981117b9b366d0.gif
Sunday still very uncertain, with some members pushing above 10C for London and others barely scraping past freezing.
I think I'm in que sera, sera territory for this cold spell now with the uncertainty still present. Bring it on!
12z now rolling let the roller coaster begin!!