Huge difference in the intensity of the LP on this run, just shows nothing is settled at the moment

Certainly a greater bout of momentum being added in the 7-10 day range this morning, but it has no clear upstream source aside from the Canadian trough happening to align less well than was the consensus among operational runs yesterday evening.

This means there could be internal feedback at play within the models causing them to take a small correction and run too far with the impacts. As much as there exists potential for a more zonal spell even if we head down the overall more blocked route (it's quite common during the troposphere-stratosphere energy exchange period before the high-lat blocking response kicks in), a starting point just over a week from now seems too soon until if and when further evidence becomes apparent to the contrary.

Unfortunately there is no crystal ball here; the only way we can really get a good idea whether the models are overdoing an adjustment is to wait until the next few sets of runs have come out (full ones; 12z and 00z) and see what we're looking at by Friday evening.

Good thing is that in the meantime, we have plenty of potentially interesting weather events to keep our minds occupied 

Latest fax chart puts the occlusion in a line SE/NW from Anglesey to London, with the slider low centred over Birmingham.

I tend to look at all of them.

Anyone who has looked at the precipitation forecast charts will know they alter with every run, right up to T+0. Plenty of opportunity for optimism and pessimism in the next 72 hours.

Big difference on the 6z. It's positioning on this run means that milder air is dragged further north, leading to the snow turning to rain quickly for most of the PPN area all the way up to the far north of England (Cumbria/N Yorks-north stays as snow). Areas with decent altitude further south one would imagine should be fine, but a mess for the rest.

Just one run of one model, but I hope not a trendsetter!

Yes, and also the BBC TV forecasts which are usually quite good now

Dire stuff from the breakfast run (6z) which gives 90% of the UK population a drenching, and snow for only the favoured spots in the far north. Absolute horror show – no way to spin it I'm afraid. 

www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=0&carte=1

should be snow opportunities for the north west next week

Where are you seeing this? 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=1

upstream pattern not looking good. sadly normal service and flat westerly regime now very likely

www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=1&carte=1

THe americans have a stunning freeze up again. 

once the models agree on shifting the pv to Greenland, its game over unless we can get a scandi block in place

its become clearer that sunday is now a midlands north affair, but further south there may be opportunities next week and things may pop up in the northerly flow

I disagree with the positioning of the snow. Looks good for anywhere North of the N Midlands I think.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=0&carte=1

the ridge is more robust than the previous run, so a little encouragement as we wait for the ens

I don't think it makes much difference. The high res show a finer "zoomed" in grid but if they're zooming in on nonsense they will be less accurate than GFS. For example, if GFS is modelling the track of the disturbance more accurately the coarser precipitation grid will still be far more accurate than a high res model (e.g. Euro4) if that is running it across the south and is wrong.

Trouble is the northerly flow looks good on the height charts but then you look at the 850 temps and it's a tepid waft. 

And Brian my point is that surely a higher resolution model is more likely to get the track of a small low pressure system accurate than a broad-brush global model?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

this is good, we need to see more ens members like this 

this run restores the faith but it may be an outlier. lets see in an hour

This is our problem- HP over the Azores ruining the cold and snowy potential and modifying any northerly:

At least the PV is still split:

Also - Look how milder than average it is across Eastern Europe/Baltics into most of western and central Russia:

It';s only Siberia where the real cold stays put.

Looking positive into FI - GFS still flirting with an idea of HP building to the north and an easterly come the end of run albeit a slack one:

Yes another easterly set-up at the end of the run but it would be a complete waste of time with a "cold pool" of about -6C to tap into.

Unless we can get a 2010-style cross-polar flow from Siberia we're not going to get any deep cold to our shores in the foreseeable future (after today's northerly outbreak of course).