MetOffice was predicting a >95% chance of precipitation (as snow) on midnight weds/thurs IMBY, which in my simple way I take as a less than 1 in 20 chance it won't rain/snow, heavy or not

It's now been replaced with 20% cloudy 🙂 - and this happens a lot, not just this time of year

I reckon the 95% has to be multiplied by their confidence in their current forecast surely, which changes the numbers a lot

Nothing.

One hail shower here today. GFS 12 bore precipitation charts were well off the mark. 

Must be grateful you got some meaningful snow now back on 10th December 2017 or else this would have been a another let down. Interesting how many parts of the south east saw snow twice or 3 times in first 2 weeks of winter then nothing since. First snowfall in London commenced on 30th Nov - as a flurry in central London.

Back to the here and now....!?

It's purely been just rain or hail showers here most of the day! Absolutely vile! Also it's not even cold and there is too much wind for any frost and when we do have a wintry shower the temperature rises above +3c thus being to warm for any snow to fall so we end up with rain followed by hail in heavier bursts then sleet as temps fall back to +2.5c after the shower passes then rise back up to +3c when another blustery shower approaches - So it's a case of rinse and repeat here in Exeter (East Devon).

This was exactly what happened in 2014/15, 2015/16 too! Last year was just as boring too, there was some soft hail/sleet end of January around 9pm and then we had a period of light snow followed by flurries and ice pellets untill 11am on 11th Feb! You would have thought things couldn't get worse than last winter for the south west!?

Tomorrow night it will cloud over with rain! Absolutely vile! Maybe FRIDAY we could see something wintry but who knows!? I bet you it will be the same as today/this evenings and tonight's weather of what was described in above sentence!

Another wintry potential missed for the SW - But not too as the cold snap in December when the midlands and Wales got 6-8" of snow and the SW missed out! We were not forecast to have any snow anyway so what can I complain about I guess!? 

Good to see southern Scotland esp the central belt get more snow too!

N. Ireland are doing very well for snowfall so far this year I heard!? Lucky so and so's!!

Well, nothing much apart from a thaw of what snow there was.

Clear skies and 4C?

Okaaaay...

Met Office forecast was appalling for our area...

Absolute crap here last night, despite my ramping.

As I mentioned in the model thread, I will take more note of the Euro4 model in future. 

You would think that -8C/-9C uppers blowing across a warm Irish Sea on a westerly would bring snow here (it certainly has in the past), but all we had was brief hail showers. Really disappointing.

Maybe the wind was too strong? Why that would make a difference I do not know, but in the past when we’ve had snow on a westerly, the main action has taken place when the wind has fallen light.

I used to get more snow when I lived in Stockport (80m ASL). Down here only 40m lower down, I’ve really noticed the difference the past few winters.

Really, really poor. Can’t remember the last time I saw a decent snowfall with snow lying on the trees etc. Must have been a brief fall in Jan 2015. I must admit I’m getting tetchy! 

I'd say that as they literally changed significantly during every hourly update they couldn't really get it very right or wrong. 

It's raining here at work about 170m asl and 4C. 

For tonight? The forecast says:

"Thickening cloud will bring a spell of snow overnight, locally heavy, giving accumulations for many. Although, rain or sleet may be more likely along the immediate coast. Very windy later. Minimum temperature 0 °C."

The graphics show heavy rain/sleet. They also show the warm sector very nicely (2C at 1am, 5C an hour later before dropping back almost immediately).

Yes Joe - yet another useless January for lowland England - at least Scotland is getting something out of this however.

The GFS run this morning is horrible, but at least it is realistic - offering no hope for coldies whatsoever - face it guys, we just have to forget about January being a winter month in England - it isn't these days - it is just an extended autumn month - utter rubbish.

Talking about rubbish, the ECM has been as useful as a chocolate teapot since its "upgrade" - as far as I can tell, GFS has been more realistic about our prospects than stupid old ECM which should be binned for leading us up the garden path so many times this winter - I shall never give ECM any credibility in future and I don't care about the verification stats. - for English winter prospects, ECM has been the very worst model this rubbish month of a chain of successive goddam awful rubbish useless non-delivering pathtic supposed to be winter Januaries which should hold their annual heads in utter abject shame!

Enjoyed that!

Yes the text forecast does not match with the graphics or GFS re the warm sector.  Automated forecast for further north like Durham shows continuous snow.

Not sure anyone has a clue what will happen tonight, but I get the feeling we will get some snow followed by rain.

After a quick skeg ((c) Sevendust) through the outputs, it looks like my wait to see an actual snow cover here at my back yard may well extend into its 6th year.

Still, it is being a fine and sunny morning as I type this, just a shame it's going to turn crap tonight with rain and yet more wind.

The forecasts have been spot on. Snow for Scotland and N. Ireland and the hills of the north of England.

What were you expecting from a cold westerly flow? What does history tell you?

Not here they weren't. But then they performed somersaults every 60 minutes. Why they can't just update then every three or six hours I don't know.

But I have to accept that a place like Leeds needs something a bit extra to get a decent dumping these days. Even elevation doesn't seem to crack it like it did when I first moved here 20 years ago.

I agree with that, and the lesson which I have learned from this is that in this part of the world, we don't always necessarily need to have that holy grail of a proper easterly from Siberia (which never seems to happen these days, and which has still never happened during this winter either) being fed in from a blocking high to our north, in order for us to get a lot of snow here.

Having said that though, this type of cold weather coming out of a cold zonality situation never tends to last for long because it is then, usually not all that long before the next weather system is once again bringing in less cold (possibly mild) air once again. The only way in which this type of scenario where we get a lot of snow can be sustained for any length of time, can therefore only really come from that holy grail of a proper easterly, and I'm hopeful that I will still be around on this planet for long enough to see that at some point in time before my own time here is up.

I think that’s a tad unfair Peter.

I have seen snow on a cold westerly flow here multiple times in the past. 

My lesson learned is to trust the Euro4 snow accumulation model forecast .

Was in Manchester yesterday Joe and only saw hail, a couple of snow showers here but any snow largely melted quickly, fairly standard for a set up with so much of a westerly element.

Look back at the charts for 29th January 2015. That gave a real dumping of snow to these parts. 

I don’t buy into these claims that snow is very unlikely (or impossible) here on a cold, westerly flow with very cold uppers.

I guess you win some, and you lose some. Lots of complex factors at play. 

Best setup for here remains a light westerly wind, cold uppers, and blocking over Iceland. 

But based on many of the parameters, we could have had a temporary covering here last night (supported by the UKV too). Like you say, it didn’t happen.