A quick scan through of the postage stamps shows 5/6 easterly type members, albeit not all at the same time.

It's only the aforementioned P20 that goes all in, with the remaining attempts more with the UK on the periphery and a less impressive pull of cold air over us.

So still a chance of an easterly but not enough of a signal to get too excited by.

Hmm, GFS has gone off on one with this afternoon's run - one of those filled with sub 930 lows, which very rarely verify. Even so, heights rise to the NE briefly around day 9 - I daresay if it hadn't overblown the low thinjgs might have ended up differently.

I'd bet there are still some easterlies in the ensembles!

Well I thought even if it went Pete Thong' at least we would look forward to some nice dry cold crisp or frosty nights/morning first week of Feb but now look what we have more Atlantic crap - sorry but this is a 'new low' even by our standards. I thought we were on a 'high' at one point! Boom boom! Thank you drummer...! pun intended).

A 'NEW LOW' - Even by our standards:

Alaskan HP doesn't help - now the forecast looks mild and zonal followed by quieter weather for a day or two, then milder and unsettled then STORMY as seen below!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Let's hope so! Soon we will be giving up in search for cold and snow! Looks like the cold air will move down into N. America once again thanks to that Alaskan Ridge! Those in the USA must be spoilt for cold and snow - the fact it's a La Nina and they keep getting the cold air from the PV. If the 12z verifies, then it would be the second time we have missed out on the cold Arctic air but the 2nd time the USA has had the cold and snow.  

Out to 210hrs and they look rather poor. GFS seems to have decided the Atlantic jet is going to go into overdrive. 

Yeah seems have got a little excited with LP development on this one - it's interesting that they just get to Scandinavia and recurve back over Iceland/Greenland.

Tone that down a bit and the block to the east might build further North and we're in business. As you say I reckon there will be a few more ens that are more pleasing to the eye

Here is the GEFS12z update:

Couldn't be more different to the GFS 12z op run!

Could fade away again very quickly but I'm starting to think an interesting winter could be intent on going out with a bang. For the sake of balance I'll quickly add that you would have to be a complete mug to bet on a full throttle easterly at the moment.

s/e ea 12th Jan -19th Jan 1963 I saw it  ok pretty darn close

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=12&month=1&year=1963&hour=0&type=ncep&map=2&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

its all talk over netweather about being in the freezer at 168-192 until its in a reliable time frame in not buying it after last time as it all looked good in FI. in the words of MR BRIAN. dont be complete mugs.

One op, one run, 8 days.

Better than a slap in the face with a wet fish, but rather too far out to get hopes up.  If its still looking cold on Feb 5th by Thursday's 12z then we might be in business.

IMO ECM's 12z Op's longer term outcome has its genesis in what happens in the T+72 to T+120 period with the behaviour of that low, so I think the fate of that outcome will get decided quite quickly.

I thought someone would say that, but experience tells us that there are so many variables that have to coincide in the right way at the right time, and easterlies at this time of the year are so vanishingly rare these days, that I would say  that whilst the apparent key event is about 4 days out, that secondary factors such as the angle of any ridge Scandi ridge, and shortwaves that slow and divert the cold air reaching the east coast, will only became apparent at the sub t120 timeframe.

No, you have to wait til t96 before any confidence can be applied, and for that reason I'm firmly in the camp that says it simply will not happen.