theweatheroutlook

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Bertwhistle
01 February 2018 14:40:06


 


 


Following on from Bertwistle's post, here's that ensemble from the first page. The control run from Feb 1st on that chart is actually uncannily similar to the shape of the current ensemble mean, just a few hours early with the cold plunge 


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I don't think they are similar at all Rob; the consistency aside, as TBF we are now at T+0, the key differences are that between about the 4th and 7th, every member is below -5 at 850. The previous prediction had the majority of members around or above zero. The op hovered around the LTM and the control, whilst not exactly an outlier, sat in a loose pack with no clustering. All the clustering was >zero. The main message (apart from degree of certainty, given the different timescales) is that things looked normal or mild, quite clearly, on balance. They certainly don't today.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Solar Cycles
01 February 2018 14:50:10


 


It has the potential to be a classic snow event, with an occluded trough moving into a very cold continental airmass, with cold Pm air following behind. What we don't want is for the trough to stall too far west or weaken too much.  Nirvana would be for it to stall somewhere over the eastern half (IMBY).


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I think that’s  a distinct possibility Gandalf though Feb 96 saw one of our heaviest falls of snow in decades IMBY. The synoptics are slightly different this time around and I would not be surprised in seeing this becoming a decaying front once it hits the mainland.

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