theweatheroutlook

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tallyho_83
31 January 2018 11:04:39


The latter stages of the GFS are also quite fun to look at, total fantasy of course but it ends with virtually the entire British Isles (and indeed much of Europe) snow covered. A big contrast to the T0 chart which shows the dire lack of snow cover across Europe right now.



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Indeed and cold enough too! But this doesn't look like the sustained or prolonged bitter cold from east just cold polar maritime. 


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Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


nsrobins
31 January 2018 11:14:46


 


If you squint, you can just see the line of cold rain down the middle of the chart over Portsmouth 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Very funny 😉☃️


I do urge caution despite the significant change in the outlook today. The old adage ‘if it can go wrong it will’ can haunt even the most avid model freak. Until the UKM text upgrades prospects I’m not buying it.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Solar Cycles
31 January 2018 11:21:04


 


Yup - this has to be one of the most remarkable charts I've ever seen - not for sheer depth of cold, but simply because I can't recall a situation where we've had -10C from the east while simultaneously having a large wodge of -10C from the NW.... that, to me, would seem a recipe for a snowfest where the two airmasses meet!



Originally Posted by: Retron 

I think it was during the 60s the last time it happened.

Solar Cycles
31 January 2018 11:22:26


 


Not by that time point. Snow all the way to the south coast and beyond, right down into Brittany on the TWO chart viewer.


Even the snow depth charts show lying snow right to the south coast, within the limits of the low-resolution blockiness.



Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Guess where MBY is. 😜

John p
31 January 2018 11:23:38

@TWOweather

Too early to be confident but my view is the likelihood of heavy and disruptive snowfall hitting parts of the UK during the next 7 days is quite high. Some areas *could* be in for their most wintry spell of the season.

@liamdutton

Based on what info? 🤔

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


A very strange response from Liam Dutton I must say.

Camberley, Surrey
The Beast from the East
31 January 2018 11:33:24


 


A very strange response from Liam Dutton I must say.


Originally Posted by: John p 


It looks mostly rain to me inspite of the uppers


The cold air has not been established ahead of it 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=78&mode=2&carte=0


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
31 January 2018 11:36:36

Pert 10, Bring it


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=10&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
31 January 2018 11:39:39

pert 15 a proper easterly still cant be ruled out but looking at the ens, none of them look mild. the diving trough seems the most likely option but still cold


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gavin D
31 January 2018 11:43:05

@TWOweather

Too early to be confident but my view is the likelihood of heavy and disruptive snowfall hitting parts of the UK during the next 7 days is quite high. Some areas *could* be in for their most wintry spell of the season.

@liamdutton

Based on what info? 🤔

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Further reply from Liam


The 06Z and 18Z runs of the GFS are never worth taking much notice of because they include fewer observations in the initialisation than the main 00Z and 12Z runs. As a result, the reliability of the output isn’t particularly good. And, it’s the GFS...

Rob K
31 January 2018 11:49:15
Certainly some very cold runs in the ensembles. Three or four bring -12C 850s here in the short term. Pert 19 is particularly frigid at the surface.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
JACKO4EVER
31 January 2018 11:51:20

@TWOweather

Too early to be confident but my view is the likelihood of heavy and disruptive snowfall hitting parts of the UK during the next 7 days is quite high. Some areas *could* be in for their most wintry spell of the season.

@liamdutton

Based on what info? 🤔

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


well with some forecasting agencies saying 5c feels “bitterly  cold” we can assume he means some snow on northern hills and the odd flake of sleet down to the M4 corridor?


unless he has mythical information that we can’t see, I find that quite amazing 

Rob K
31 January 2018 11:54:19


 


Further reply from Liam


The 06Z and 18Z runs of the GFS are never worth taking much notice of because they include fewer observations in the initialisation than the main 00Z and 12Z runs. As a result, the reliability of the output isn’t particularly good. And, it’s the GFS...


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


That's true but the other morning output seems to have picked up on the signal: DWD and JMA both looking pretty wintry, and it's starting ti be picked up on the short-term hi-res models too.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
marco 79
31 January 2018 11:58:26
06z run is generally a cold run for most of the UK. It keeps most parts under -5c 850s . Going on that there may well be some surprise snowfall and not just limited to the North... Some very cold uppers pooling to our North and East for the first time this winter....one to watch..
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Retron
31 January 2018 12:00:39
I suspect Liam Dutton's remarks are based on the Met Office forecaster's discussion as much as anything.

Meanwhile EPS: this morning is a corker:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif? 

Those means were hovering around or just above 5C for the past few runs, so this is a last-minute upgrade by the looks of it!

Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
31 January 2018 12:02:08

Quite a decisive drop in the ensemble mean:



 


Compared to where we were last night:


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Karl Guille
31 January 2018 12:05:10
Can't remember the last time the 850hPA mean was below 0 in these parts across the 15 day spread on the ensembles let alone -3 to -5 but in 6 hours time I will finally see it!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018013106/graphe3_1000_218.0399932861328_251.01998901367187___.gif 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
roger63
31 January 2018 12:09:32

06z run is generally a cold run for most of the UK. It keeps most parts under -5c 850s . Going on that there may well be some surprise snowfall and not just limited to the North... Some very cold uppers pooling to our North and East for the first time this winter....one to watch..

Originally Posted by: marco 79 


At 144h the Scandi HP is trying to ridge SW whilst the Azores HP is trying to ridge NE a stand off.Looking at the ENS for 144,240 and 360h the easterly option is still in a minority

John p
31 January 2018 12:10:24
Just to clarify - those remarks about snowfall are from Brian on Twitter.
Liam is saying he finds it doubtful, which I find odd.
Camberley, Surrey
ballamar
31 January 2018 12:14:10

Just to clarify - those remarks about snowfall are from Brian on Twitter.
Liam is saying he finds it doubtful, which I find odd.

Originally Posted by: John p 


 


i think saying nothing in response may have been wiser

The Beast from the East
31 January 2018 12:18:29

I think Brian wants the call from the Daily Express, maybe he can be quoted on the front page tomorrow


"panic buy tins, we're all going to freeze"

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
31 January 2018 12:50:40

Just to clarify - those remarks about snowfall are from Brian on Twitter.
Liam is saying he finds it doubtful, which I find odd.

Originally Posted by: John p 


 


Ian Fergusson is a bit more bullish:


 


W COUNTRY A colder theme steadily emerging over coming days, but more markedly so as we move on into next week, with associated possibility of frost/ice/snow developing pretty much anywhere across the country.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Solar Cycles
31 January 2018 12:55:10


 


Further reply from Liam


The 06Z and 18Z runs of the GFS are never worth taking much notice of because they include fewer observations in the initialisation than the main 00Z and 12Z runs. As a result, the reliability of the output isn’t particularly good. And, it’s the GFS...


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

The Euros have hardly covered themselves with glory this winter either so to rubbish one model whilst ignoring the rest is a bit rich really.

Rob K
31 January 2018 12:56:56


The Euros have hardly covered themselves with glory this winter either so to rubbish one model whilst ignoring the rest is a bit rich really.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


And in any case, the ECM has -13C 850s here in less than a week's time!


 


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
31 January 2018 12:58:40


 


A very strange response from Liam Dutton I must say.


Originally Posted by: John p 


I didn't think my remarks would create such a storm. I hold Liam Dutton in high regard but was a little surprised about how dismissive he initially was, although to be fair he has proved clarification with regard to the ECM scenario for early next week. His views on the GFS 0z / 18z cycles (which has been discussed here previously) are at odds with mine because the evidence I have seen suggests that statistically there isn't much difference in accuracy. The marginally (and it is marginal, see: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/vsdb/gfs2014_4cyc/) poorer performance of the 6z and 18z cycles is more than offset by the 6 hours time gap, so 6z + 114 is more accurate than 00z + 120.  

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Whether Idle
31 January 2018 12:58:46


The latter stages of the GFS are also quite fun to look at, total fantasy of course but it ends with virtually the entire British Isles (and indeed much of Europe) snow covered. A big contrast to the T0 chart which shows the dire lack of snow cover across Europe right now.



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


But I thought winter was over

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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