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fairweather
31 January 2018 13:05:21

Irrespective of how poor the 06z run might be  (has this been widely noted before?) in my opinion it is still the best 06z ensembles  we've had this winter. It has a short spell of agreement for very low 850's and it lasts two weeks pretty much without going above -5C. Not had that yet this winter. I'm optimistic now of a long cold spell but neutral about just how cold or snowy.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
31 January 2018 13:08:10
If this low can run up the channel that would do me very nicely indeed on a Sunday. Time to test the winter tyres before the real test on the 10th in Val D Isere!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_93_1.png 

Kingston Upon Thames
Saint Snow
31 January 2018 13:08:17

6z gives the following Snow Row 'chart':


 


1) Inverness   - 311


2) Newcastle   - 245


3) Norwich   - 203


4) Glasgow   - 199


5) Liverpool   - 187


6) Birmingham   - 171


7) Belfast   - 170


8) Edinburgh   - 162


9) London   - 150


10) Aberdeen   - 141


11) Cardiff   - 130


 


They're pretty astonishing numbers.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Russwirral
31 January 2018 13:12:07


6z gives the following Snow Row 'chart':


 


1) Inverness   - 311


2) Newcastle   - 245


3) Norwich   - 203


4) Glasgow   - 199


5) Liverpool   - 187


6) Birmingham   - 171


7) Belfast   - 170


8) Edinburgh   - 162


9) London   - 150


10) Aberdeen   - 141


11) Cardiff   - 130


 


They're pretty astonishing numbers.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 agreed - Liverpool in isolation is probably the snowiest Snow row GEFS ive seen since it was introduced a few years back.  I would say its probably 30% higher than the nearest record


 


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Solar Cycles
31 January 2018 13:15:57


 


I didn't think my remarks would create such a storm. I hold Liam Dutton in high regard but was a little surprised about how dismissive he initially was, although to be fair he has proved clarification with regard to the ECM scenario for early next week. His views on the GFS 0z / 18z cycles (which has been discussed here previously) are at odds with mine because the evidence I have seen suggests that statistically there isn't much difference in accuracy. The marginally (and it is marginal, see: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/vsdb/gfs2014_4cyc/) poorer performance of the 6z and 18z cycles is more than offset by the 6 hours time gap, so 6z + 114 is more accurate than 00z + 120.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I don’t get his remarks either and this misconception that the ECM is the best performing model is at odds for this little part of the world, for the NH yes but none of us are interested in that stat really.

Elstevio
31 January 2018 13:40:56
Norwich's snow row of 203( !!!) suggests our barren run of 5 years without meaningful snow on the ground is finally going to end? The GEFS ensembles have been suggesting a colder spell for a week or so now.
Aylsham, North Norfolk
Shropshire
31 January 2018 13:41:10


 


It looks mostly rain to me inspite of the uppers


The cold air has not been established ahead of it 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=78&mode=2&carte=0


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Yes establishing cold air AHEAD is always key and that doesn't happen this weekend , without it you need something exceptional to develop such as Dec 90 to see widespread heavy snow.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
kmoorman
31 January 2018 13:51:07

Despite some very encouraging upper air temps, for my location the lack of precipitation associated with this is a slight concern.


 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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Rob K
31 January 2018 14:01:24

Norwich's snow row of 203( !!!) suggests our barren run of 5 years without meaningful snow on the ground is finally going to end? The GEFS ensembles have been suggesting a colder spell for a week or so now.

Originally Posted by: Elstevio 


 


The snow rows don't necessarily mean lying snow, of course. Any run with a trace of precipitation with conditions conducive to wintry stuff falling will show up on the snow row. 


 


Down here this could turn out to be the snowiest winter with no lying snow in many a year! 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Russwirral
31 January 2018 14:06:00


 


 


Yes establishing cold air AHEAD is always key and that doesn't happen this weekend , without it you need something exceptional to develop such as Dec 90 to see widespread heavy snow.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


I dont think this will be an issue.  We're still in Jan, the front is due to arrive to most around the coldest point of the day, just before dawn.


 


The Front is looking more and more occluded too, it wasnt the other day.


 


 


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Shropshire
31 January 2018 14:18:45


 


 


I dont think this will be an issue.  We're still in Jan, the front is due to arrive to most around the coldest point of the day, just before dawn.


 


The Front is looking more and more occluded too, it wasnt the other day.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


That's not the issue , temps will rise sufficiently before the PPN arrives which will mean rain for all.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
nsrobins
31 January 2018 14:43:53


 


 


That's not the issue , temps will rise sufficiently before the PPN arrives which will mean rain for all.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


But ‘rain for all’ is clearly not what the current signals are suggesting, so where is your data source? Or is it, as I suspect, merely perception based on your bias for milder options. 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
31 January 2018 14:49:04


Down here this could turn out to be the snowiest winter with no lying snow in many a year! 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Shropshire
31 January 2018 15:07:36


 


But ‘rain for all’ is clearly not what the current signals are suggesting, so where is your data source? Or is it, as I suspect, merely perception based on your bias for milder options. 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


I'm not saying PPN won't turn to snow in places , but this will be essentially a rain event with some areas seeing wet snow fall.


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Rob K
31 January 2018 15:17:52


 


 


I'm not saying PPN won't turn to snow in places , but this will be essentially a rain event with some areas seeing wet snow fall.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Some charts of the relevant parameters would help people to understand your reasoning.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Maunder Minimum
31 January 2018 15:25:14

Have been keeping out of here for a while, out of the constant frustration of chasing phantom easterlies. Things appear to be getting more interesting though, on which topic I shall post what is a growing model consensus on a major stratospheric, PV splitting event in the next 10 days (JMA 10hPa temperature profile for 10th Feb):


JN264-5_ygx7.GIF


If this does come off, any cold we get in the next week should be prolonged and amplified.

New world order coming.
hobensotwo
31 January 2018 15:28:46


6z gives the following Snow Row 'chart':


 


1) Inverness   - 311


2) Newcastle   - 245


3) Norwich   - 203


4) Glasgow   - 199


5) Liverpool   - 187


6) Birmingham   - 171


7) Belfast   - 170


8) Edinburgh   - 162


9) London   - 150


10) Aberdeen   - 141


11) Cardiff   - 130


 


They're pretty astonishing numbers.


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Is it possible to get th Channel Island figures?


Anything above 20 would be good for down here 

soperman
31 January 2018 15:36:17


 


Some charts of the relevant parameters would help people to understand your reasoning.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I think many will view the latest Meto week ahead video forecast as uninspiring- rain for all but the North on Saturday with a chance of sleet and snow on Sunday as it moves away on Sunday... then


Scandi High / Easterly  LESS likely and a chilly nortwesterly incursion follows bringing snow to Scottish hills


So, the model upgrades are overblown or Meto yet to catch up?


 


 

snow_dann
31 January 2018 15:43:42


 


 


I think many will view the latest Meto week ahead video forecast as uninspiring- rain for all but the North on Saturday with a chance of sleet and snow on Sunday as it moves away on Sunday... then


Scandi High / Easterly  LESS likely and a chilly nortwesterly incursion follows bringing snow to Scottish hills


So, the model upgrades are overblown or Meto yet to catch up?


 


 


Originally Posted by: soperman 


I think its because its yesterdays video which would be based on yesterdays Model Output. It seems the bigger switch to colder conditions occurred overnight and also on this mornings charts.

Saint Snow
31 January 2018 15:44:48


 


Is it possible to get th Channel Island figures?


Anything above 20 would be good for down here 


Originally Posted by: hobensotwo 


 


The Snow Row is a feature on the Chart section of TWO - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


It provides the GEFS graphs for a selection of UK & European cities, and the Channel Islands aren't amongst those. There is an option to click on a location from a map and get GEFS graphs for that location, but I don't think they include the Snow Rows.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
31 January 2018 15:53:37


 


 


The Snow Row is a feature on the Chart section of TWO - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


It provides the GEFS graphs for a selection of UK & European cities, and the Channel Islands aren't amongst those. There is an option to click on a location from a map and get GEFS graphs for that location, but I don't think they include the Snow Rows.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


You can click on the map on Meteociel and get a percentage snow chance along the bottom:


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php


For Guernsey there is some snow risk at every time point from Feb 4th to the end of the run.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
31 January 2018 15:54:57
Meanwhile 12Z GFS is coming out and the block to the east looks a bit weaker so far.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
hobensotwo
31 January 2018 15:57:00


 


 


The Snow Row is a feature on the Chart section of TWO - https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


It provides the GEFS graphs for a selection of UK & European cities, and the Channel Islands aren't amongst those. There is an option to click on a location from a map and get GEFS graphs for that location, but I don't think they include the Snow Rows.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Nice! thanks for that. Your right they don't contain a snow row.


However from glancing at the 850 temps from an IMBY perspective, the air source is gonna need to be from the East. Anything from the West even North West will probably need to be lower that -10, due to sea modification etc..  

Shropshire
31 January 2018 16:09:37

Rob on the train so can't post charts - Friday night and the UK is over 530 dam , upper air not cold enough to support snow eithrr.


Front edges in and dewpoints and temps nudge up a little further - rain 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
polarwind
31 January 2018 16:09:59


 


 


Not when the mild air is returning from the NW they haven't 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

..... and if the mild air doesn't make it? - which with the modelled synoptics is a possibility - hence the snow.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
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Dave,Derby

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