What's the ETA for kick off Steve? I want to make sure I can enjoy my pub lunch and sober up before I have to start watching radars 

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8/9 pm I reckon

It does look like an old school Kent classic maybe 10cm for those above 200m.  2 to 5 widely. Hoping for a bit in my location but probably to far north and west.

 

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8pm onwards mate.

RH interestingly has started falling away. 84% down from 88% half an hour ago. Dewpoints are falling.

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Showers are starting to be more frequent, blustery and wintry/graupel-like. It's currently hail/rain mix and 3.3 C with 85% H bringing dewpoint down to 1 C.

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This has an 80's feel. Heavy frequent graupel showers turning roads temporarily white now. 3.2c and falling.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/temps-reel/obs_villes.php?code2=6204

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/temps-reel/obs_villes.php?code2=7266

https://www.buienradar.nl/weer/de%20bilt/nl/2757783/buienradar/actueel

METARS from north sea platforms and Dutch radar (scroll out)

I'm not overwhelmed.

After 9pm there is a 12 hour window of "snopportunity".   Just Luck and colder air plus heavier precipitation required.

 

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As temperature falls down to 2.9 C, the humidity rises to 90% thus making the dewpoint higher at 2 C. Showers are still mostly as rain.

LOL.

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Some models show rain through out Ian.  Just saying...

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On the  radar they appear to be running NW - SE which was not what I was expecting. Thought they would be coming in more off the sea.

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Seems to be very much an East Kent affair so far - it's been dry since about 4:30am here and on the 50 mile loop out towards the East I did on the bike earlier there was only a couple of light rain showers.

Be a wee bit depressing if I see more falling snow from the NW'ly interludes we've had than the current Easterly

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Glad to see a bit of wintry action for the Kent crew. Don't forget to put your snow reports in the snow reports thread ❄
Meanwhile, talking of potential, the latest yellow warning for Mon/Tues has 1-5 cm over a larger area now

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Well, plenty of rain today - the closest to snow so far was a graupel shower this morning. Ironic, really, the 850s this morning were lower than anything forecast over the coming days, including tonight!

The showers have fizzled out here for now, but with the dewpoint still stubbornly above 2C it really doesn't matter.

With 850s as low as they're going to get (-8C), it's all down to diurnal cooling to turn the rain to snow. No, I'm not getting my hopes up!

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12z run updates for Tuesday’s front.. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_48_43.png

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam/hirlamuk-1-45-0.png?04-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/iconeu_uk1-1-44-0.png?04-16

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-1-44-0.png?04-17

Looking good for a light covering for those of us in the NW. GFS and HIRLAM most bullish. Nothing hugely substantial but it won’t be marginal apart from on the immediate coast. Maybe a cm or so.

Awaiting NMM, Euro4 and ECM.

Still definite opportunity for the front to completely fizzle before it reaches Greater Manchester, but this looks unlikely according to most of the NWP. Still time for change, of course. 

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12z Euro4 shows the front completely dying a death with little or no accumulation of snow across England. 

Looks likely to be a snizzle event if it verifies. 

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The front doesn't completely die on the EURO4, but it is very light. Some light falling snow at least.

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Don’t worry Joe, it could be worse, it’ll only get here if it is rain no doubt!

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Well I'm in hilly Derbyshire this week and apart from some sharp frosts I don't expect that much from the front on Tuesday afternoon. We might get 1 or 2cm if lucky. Thursday into Friday might give us some more but the air around that looks to be milder and will probably only give snow above 800ft (245m)

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2.3c now and rising but annoyingly the RH has climbed to 93% resulting in a dewpoint of around +1.5c.

The streamer has developed and its fairly strong. 8.6mm from it today. Unfortunately we've now lost the graupel and replaced it with a rain / sleet / wet snow mix at 35 metres above sea level.

We drop from -8c 850Hpa's and -2c 925Hpa's currently to -9c /-4c after midnight. Unfortunately this window of colder opportunity comes down to the luck of having a streamer suitably located for 6 hours.

Hopeful but feeling a little underwhelmed now.

I'm sure there was a time when -8c 850Hpa's used to give fairly decent snow opportunities. Not for now it seems.

 

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Just not cold enough Steve.....next time

 

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The Countryfile forecast was both encouraging and underwhelming.

Decent chance of snow showers in the SE (TS joking about how woefully London copes with even a hint of snow). Tuesday's front looks fine for a line from about South Wales to eastern Scotland. But that warm wedge is the floating turd in the water tank, bringing mostly rain. 

All in all another promising period of weather looks like sinking into mediocrity. 

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Judging by most of the model output I’d be surprised if your patch stayed dry on Tuesday. 

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Sleeting quite heavily and is trying hard to turn into as snow but is it so wet and sodden that it's going to take some doing for it to settle.

And temperatures has crept down a little to 1.9 C but the 90% H is keeping the dewpoint above freezing anyway.

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Just too warm here 2.2 , 0.7

Sleet, heavy stuff, a wintry mix.

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The GFS is consistently forecasting a more active front on Tuesday. 

18z http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_39_43.png

 

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