theweatheroutlook

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Karl Guille
22 February 2018 13:05:25


op and control progressive which is a concern but generally a good set of runs to prolong the cold


This is the best one


www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=180&mode=1&carte=0


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Lol, 12 days on continuous snow for the Channel Islands.  I'll take that!!

St. Sampson
Guernsey
Gavin D
22 February 2018 13:05:34

North sea looks primed and ready to deliver on ICON 06z


Rob K
22 February 2018 13:11:12
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 

It does make me wonder if there is a link between low solar activity and the intensity of SSW events?


Could well be, although wasn't there a SSW in Jan 2013 which led to the cold March? Activity wasn't too low then.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Vortex
22 February 2018 13:15:18


 


Could well be, although wasn't there a SSW in Jan 2013 which led to the cold March? Activity wasn't too low then.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


True, and there are other years where an SSW has occurred when activity was high, but there may be a correlation with the more intense SSW's.  I'll have to do some more checking 

Thetford
Norfolk
ASL: 45 m or 148 ft
Gavin D
22 February 2018 13:20:48
Judah Cohen‏ on Twitter "Polar Vortex currently over western Canada is predicted to make its way to a more favored location over Northern Asia by end of next week, will help open the door for the return of colder air into the Eastern US."

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/966662739375611905 
Polar Vortex
22 February 2018 13:25:32


 


 


True, and there are other years where an SSW has occurred when activity was high, but there may be a correlation with the more intense SSW's.  I'll have to do some more checking 


Originally Posted by: Polar Vortex 


 


I cheated and found this on the Metoffice website: https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/


Dave Britton says:
22 January, 2013 at 4:45 pm

1) Does the Met Office correlate a SSW with any solar activity change?
It is not possible to ‘correlate’ a single SSW event with solar activity but there is evidence that solar activity can alter stratospheric winds which are intimately related to sudden stratospheric warmings.


 


Edit: In any case it does bode well for the next 2 winters, when solar activity is predicted to decrease further.


Thetford
Norfolk
ASL: 45 m or 148 ft
Polar Vortex
22 February 2018 13:33:27


 


Those stats are incredible for end of Feb / beginning of March 

Thetford
Norfolk
ASL: 45 m or 148 ft
fairweather
22 February 2018 13:37:36

A better set of GFS ensembles on the 06z in my opinion. Short term mean has certainly dropped back a degree or so and halted the slight rising trend. Furthermore, if most places get some early snow cover the rise in 850's will be less critical as the surface cold will have more of an influence. I can see any snow cover persisting well into March especially if there is not too much sun.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Notty
22 February 2018 13:39:07
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 

It does make me wonder if there is a link between low solar activity and the intensity of SSW events?


From Spaceweather - http://spaceweather.com/


The absence of sunspots heralds the approach of Solar Minimum. Sunspot numbers rise and fall with an ~11-year period, slowly oscillating between Solar Max and Solar Min. In 2018, the pendulum is swinging toward a deep minimum expected to reach nadir during the next 2 years.


Space weather changes during Solar Minimum: Cosmic rays increase, Earth's upper atmosphere cools and shrinks, and auroras may change color. Indeed, Solar Mimimum isn't nearly as dull as it sounds. Stay tuned.


 

Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Gavin D
22 February 2018 13:51:10
Liam Dutton is saying the snow could be dry whilst good for drifting it would be poor for snowman building
warrenb
22 February 2018 13:52:45

Liam Dutton is saying the snow could be dry whilst good for drifting it would be poor for snowman building

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


Just trying to work out what this has to do with the models.


 


Model Discussion thread people, not having a go Gavin as the last almost page have been more media that model

Tonbridge 45m 
NickR
22 February 2018 13:56:33
SJV
22 February 2018 14:10:00

Nicked from The Eagle who posts on the other side. Mouthwatering 00z NMM animation 


rickm
22 February 2018 14:14:51


 


Remind me where you can click on the map.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


 


Click on 'Retour a la carte' at the bottom then select your area


 

Whiteout
22 February 2018 14:17:44

What would have been really good in the lead up to this is Darren's (Retron) analysis of the mornings output each day. I used to find those very informative, shame he stopped doing them 


Didn't Gibby do them for a while too? Haven't seen him on here for ages.

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Rob K
22 February 2018 14:18:44


 


 


Click on 'Retour a la carte' at the bottom then select your area


 


Originally Posted by: rickm 


From the main GEFS Ensemble page at Meteociel click "Tableaux" at the top and you get the map to click. It only covers the southern half or so of the country. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Vortex
22 February 2018 14:21:30

I think the Norwich snow row is the best I've seen for Norwich for years and years 


Thetford
Norfolk
ASL: 45 m or 148 ft
Polar Low
22 February 2018 14:22:02

Thanks for that Rob I didn't know that was an option.



 


From the main GEFS Ensemble page at Meteociel click "Tableaux" at the top and you get the map to click. It only covers the southern half or so of the country. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

roadrunnerajn
22 February 2018 14:40:53

[quote=Tim A;977048]


 


 


Well the mean only shows the 0c 850hpa isotherm grazing Devon/Cornwall before dropping away to the south, so presume there are plenty of colder options than the Op in there.   


 


Great rain for me then🙄!!

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
Viking3
22 February 2018 14:45:48


 


From the main GEFS Ensemble page at Meteociel click "Tableaux" at the top and you get the map to click. It only covers the southern half or so of the country. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


For those north of Yorkshire, similar tables can be inspected for selected places on Weatheronline.


To access the tables go to -> Weather Maps -> Expert Charts -> GEFS TS -> Table [run 1-20] and select location and parameter from the list at lower left. Locations north of the top of the Meteociel map are Belfast, Newcastle, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Wick.


Many other European and worldwide locations can be accessed from this page.

Keith
Aboyne, Aberdeenshire
135m asl
Tractor Boy
22 February 2018 14:54:58


What would have been really good in the lead up to this is Darren's (Retron) analysis of the mornings output each day. I used to find those very informative, shame he stopped doing them 


Didn't Gibby do them for a while too? Haven't seen him on here for ages.


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


 


Agree. Yes, miss Gibby's daily updates. Its also a pity that we are missing the likes of Steve Murr, Bren and MVH in this lead up. Its like we are at long last going (or very likely) to get the holy grail synoptics that this forum has been seeking for 18 years. The contributions have been excellent from some, but it would be great if all those characters from the past were here for the party.


And, if we get a memorable spell as modelled, will the forum suffer a UKIP effect? I mean, will there be a decline because we all get what we have been waiting for?


Anyway, sorry for straying OT. Here's a chart...


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_144_1.png


 

Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
SJV
22 February 2018 14:59:59

Not long until the CRUCIAL 12z outputs. Not forgetting later on we have the equally crucial 18z and then the less crucial, but still quite crucial 00z's.


Assuming all goes smoothly with this afternoon's output we can breathe easy again. Any wobbles and, crucially, it'll mean tomorrow's output will be even more crucial.


We are also starting to get in range of the hi-res outputs which is crucial in terms of snow amounts/distribution 

llamedos
22 February 2018 15:33:46


Not long until the CRUCIAL 12z outputs. Not forgetting later on we have the equally crucial 18z and then the less crucial, but still quite crucial 00z's.


Assuming all goes smoothly with this afternoon's output we can breathe easy again. Any wobbles and, crucially, it'll mean tomorrow's output will be even more crucial.


We are also starting to get in range of the hi-res outputs which is crucial in terms of snow amounts/distribution 


Originally Posted by: SJV 

Sounds to me like there's a lot of crucial data still to come then Steve

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
squish
22 February 2018 15:41:15
ICON 12z looking good. The 00z run was intensely cold around +150/168. Orientation of high looks like the same is on the cards....
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Whether Idle
22 February 2018 15:44:57


Not long until the CRUCIAL 12z outputs. Not forgetting later on we have the equally crucial 18z and then the less crucial, but still quite crucial 00z's.


Assuming all goes smoothly with this afternoon's output we can breathe easy again. Any wobbles and, crucially, it'll mean tomorrow's output will be even more crucial.


We are also starting to get in range of the hi-res outputs which is crucial in terms of snow amounts/distribution 


Originally Posted by: SJV 



 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
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