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Onwards...
I doubt if their is a breakdown it will come as quick as gfs shows,cold air is very dense and is hard to shift once established,and the met office aren’t keen on a quick breakdown to the cold spell
Originally Posted by: Argyle77
Yes, I would expect the High to do some ridging and the trough really struggle to move very far north.
Originally Posted by: polarwind
I'm hanging on for the GEFS to show just how popular the mild push from the south is.... please let it be an outlier!
Originally Posted by: kmoorman
the short version for my location shows the mild options aren't the majority, which helps.
Well the mean only shows the 0c 850hpa isotherm grazing Devon/Cornwall before dropping away to the south, so presume there are plenty of colder options than the Op in there.
Both the op run and the control run were very much on the mild side. Always a slight concern when both op and control follow each other so closely but there is a good solid cluster keeping it cold for ages.
And the control even goes back in the freezer at the end.
op and control progressive which is a concern but generally a good set of runs to prolong the cold
This is the best one
www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=180&mode=1&carte=0
What mild push? There is no breakdown on the GFS (outside of the extreme south)
We do not live at 850hpa. Winds are coming from the east until 384 hours.
This is as far as the mild air ever gets.
1) This is at 288 hours so what's the point in even bringing it up
2) Do you even live in SW England?
3) The winds are crossed! Even +2C at 850hpa can bring snow given the right conditions! Stop panicking.
GEFS 06z has shuffled back towards Siberia.
I sense by the beginning of next week we would have topped 45 pages in this new forum thread!?
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
We had over 50 pages in the last thread in less than 2 days. I think we'll be on another thread by then. Mind you, we'll no doubt have a dedicated short-term snow potential thread going by then, too.
Originally Posted by: SJV
It's like the old days of the forum!! :-D
As far as I know, there already is a dedicated snow potential thread for this month which was created as a way of trying to stop these threads from getting too clogged up. You might need to wade through 3 or more pages of the thread listings when you go to this forum's home page in order to get to that thread because there hasn't been anything posted in there for a while, and quite a number of new threads (mostly these threads and each new current conditions thread) have been created since then, or you can just click here to get to that thread. Furthermore, I also posted a reminder of that in this month's snow reports thread as well and I'm surprised that no-one has posted anything in there until now, given the latest model output.
Run 12 on the 6Z GFS is utterly Day After Tomorrow stuff. For a random spot in Oxfordshire I just clicked on, the 2m temperature stays below zero from 6pm on Feb 27 until 12 noon on March 7, when it reaches the dizzy heights of 0.2C. It then just touches 0.1C on March 8 as well.
The last thread only lasted about 40 hours so I would be surprised if it builds that slowly!
EDIT: Already said by others
Here's that 2m temperature chart for posterity. Check out run 12.
Full size: https://i.imgur.com/FSAJiCZ.png
Link: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=277&y=127&run=6&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0
GEFS means. Incredible.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_120_2.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_144_2.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_168_2.png
Talking of March CET, the ECM ensemble mean for London kicks off with an ice day on March 1:
That ECM op run . Not seen a chart like that for years.