That would be my favoured solution Brian due to how GFS has been running with this scenario for the last few days and we all know when it’s the lone wolf in such situations it’s then proven to be the correct one. The ICON precipitation charts are not something I take all that seriously per se but are my main concern with this kind of set up. All conjecture up to now and like you say just another outcome to consider.

So, this morning's ECM for the SE was one of the coldest members in the pack regarding the low at the end of next week - it's running close to the 90th percentile on Friday onwards, with the majority of members bringing milder air in.

https://weather.us/forecast/2644544-leysdown-on-sea/ensemble/euro/temperatur850

(This is MBY, but you can search for your own location from that link).

That said, with a spread on Friday of 850s from +3C to -16C, it's far from settled yet!

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could well do, but we need a slice of luck for this to happen and well,  when we have to rely on Lady Luck for our small patch in the North Atlantic we haven’t got a good record at all. Some interesting fun and games for sure, could even turn into a memorable event for some. 

For what it’s worth the ECM op was on the milder side of average up here in the longer term http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?lat=57.2&lon=-2.2

 

In between the two locations (which is probably most places to an extent) may be in between?

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Temperatures in the south dipping quite widely below -15°C at the surface; -18°C the low!!!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gem/171_uk2mtmp.png?cb=920

I mean...really? Would have to be over deep, powdery snow under intensely clear, dry, still air.

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So. All up in the air for Friday and Saturday then!

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Just very little ppn altogether. Too far from the coast. 

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Epic ECM OP again this morning, although note Darren's and Michael's comments regarding it being one of the colder solutions.

GFS much more keen on spinning a vigorous low up over us, although it takes a day or so to warm the air up enough for rain to replace the snow in the far South and South East. Before then very cold, convective snowfall for the East, maybe some inland areas if/when streamers set up. There is still some colder clustering in the ens, although the majority favour milder air winning (note the milder air is still sub zero on the TWO London ens for a few days after the low incursion, albeit I guess a bit warmer towards the coast).

Personally I'm going with:-

1) Enjoying what snowfall I see.

2) Probably getting irrationally jealous of snow reports from further up the East coast, who with a longer sea fetch may get buried.

3) Keeping half an eye on model expectations for Thursday onwards. This will involve not reacting to 'it's all over' type comments which I expect to start appearing by 12z's on Monday

At present I'm very much in the 'it'll end up further south and/or with much less of a mild push' than is being modelled camp. Ideally what we'd get is it slowly drifting towards us bringing organised snowfall to the South and maybe parts of Wales and the Midlands, before it drifts East and helps to pull a renewed shot of cover air over us. Kinda like the ECM Op

(P.S Can't resist the 1st thing 850s for Kent area from ECM again - Sunday = -1c, Monday -9/10C, Tuesday -13/14c, Wednesday -13c (note small feature over Kent!). Thursday -15/16c, Friday -6/7c, Saturday -13c, Sunday -11c, Monday -9c, Tuesday -10c. Just crazy prolonged depth of cold)

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A great post because that literally does sum up the possibilities well. It will certainly be a shame if it came to the former scenario but given ECM, ICON and the METO forecasts, along with some old fashioned experience of similar evolutions, I would say that the latter scenario has the edge right now. Of course, the cold pool will be somewhat diluted from the end of the week as all ENS show this and is to be expected because that Low will mix in milder air even if it stays well to the far S and hits Iberia. With a trend to the block retrogressing towards Greenland, it is highly likely for a renewed injection of cold to eventually filter down from the N/NE and if the Low does stay further S on this ocassion, there will likely be further attempts down the line.

As is often the case, the heaviest and certainly the most widespread snows do arise from these attempts but the price to pay is weather-induced anxiety. Is it worth it? I'd say yes. Given that many places, especially to the W and some C areas will initially be very cold but essentially dry with very little if any snow cover, the idea of a cleaner/drier continuation of the E'ly/deep cold pool isn't the best solution in the absence of a half decent snow cover. If risk 1 pays off, we will probably be more cautious with any subsequent attempts because it perhaps is better to protect what you have rather than gamble on double or nothing...

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Starting to be general consensus that an area of low pressure will approach from the SW as we go into Thursday. What it does from there is still up for grabs but really worth watching if this deepens into something more major. Blizzards, drifts, East Coast flooding co-inciding with very high tides.
So much to look out for!
In the meantime, we have our progression into the freezer and the effects from that, whatever they may be in your area.
Will have trouble keeping up!

Quite a number of synoptic similarities to 2010 this week including the potential for a procession of lows to slip East from the Azores providing significant snowfall for some or a quick and dirty breakdown to the start of Spring - interesting to see how the end of the week plays out. Would be interested to learn from some of the more knowledgable members if they have any thoughts on meteoscale and/or polar low opportunities which I understand are notoriously hard for the models to forecast much in advance. I seem to recall the significant snow we saw in Lincolnshire in the first week of Dec 2010 came from such a feature - something like 30cm in a short space of time. Wonder if conditions are conducive to a repeat performance this time around? (Asking for friend!)

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Id rather not as I’m slap bang in the middle of it.

OPENING A NEW THREAD READY FOR THE 06z AT 09:18>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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