theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
22 February 2018 15:52:29
What is the record 850 drop in temp over 24 hours?? Does anyone know?
Rob K
22 February 2018 15:57:02
ICON 12Z also brings the low into play to the SW. 0C isotherm into Cornwall as early as 180.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
22 February 2018 15:57:49

ICON 12z 850's getting down to -16!


kmoorman
22 February 2018 15:58:05

ICON 12Z also brings the low into play to the SW. 0C isotherm into Cornwall as early as 180.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I take it that's not good news?

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Quantum
22 February 2018 16:01:28


 


 


I take it that's not good news?


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


If you are north of that isotherm expect 100% snow. If you are south expect freezing rain, ice pellets, sleet or snow. It won't rain properly until the uppers are +1C or above imho.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
22 February 2018 16:02:34


 


 


I take it that's not good news?


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


It means rain/ warmer :)

kmoorman
22 February 2018 16:04:19


 


It means rain/ warmer :)


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I guess I need to see where that line sits before I comment further

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
marting
22 February 2018 16:11:48
UKMO 144 is amazing
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png 
Quite something to behold
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Shropshire
22 February 2018 16:12:03

UKMO T144 out, the trouble with these easterlies is that they fall short of the East coast - of America 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
kmoorman
22 February 2018 16:12:31


 


If you are north of that isotherm expect 100% snow. If you are south expect freezing rain, ice pellets, sleet or snow. It won't rain properly until the uppers are +1C or above imho.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Rather than remain completely ignorant I had a look.  Not only is the upper warmth kept at bay the surface temps are bone chilling towards the end.


 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
SJV
22 February 2018 16:12:34


UKMO T144 out, the trouble with these easterlies is that they fall short of the East coast - of America 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Gorgeous isn't it 


edit: here's the link to it so it doesn't get lost:


UKMO 144 is amazing



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png



Quite something to behold
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 

Ally Pally Snowman
22 February 2018 16:12:57

-16c 850s into EA on the 144 ukmo. looks stunning 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
22 February 2018 16:14:00


 


 


I take it that's not good news?


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


Depends. If it gets too far it could bring mild air in and a general thaw in the south. If it gets just far enough then it could be blizzard time. 


 


BTW UKMO isn't messing about. 144 hrs and -16C into East Anglia. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
backtobasics
22 February 2018 16:14:28

UKMO 144 is amazing
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png
Quite something to behold
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 


Holy tulip!  


*Hang on that's not what i typed lol

squish
22 February 2018 16:15:44
I think I'm just going to sit back and watch. UKMO is stunning, but the GFS promises something quite special!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2018 16:15:55


ICON 12z 850's getting down to -16!



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Very odd to see Newfoundland getting a waft of secondhand cold air from Europe. Not often you see that!

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
22 February 2018 16:17:09

GFS 144 -15 into east looks snowy as well


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
squish
22 February 2018 16:17:56
GEM is on exactly the same lines. Looks like UK on for direct hit of that intense cold pool.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
22 February 2018 16:19:40
GFS has all of mainland U.K. except Cornwall sub -12c at 144. Looks like the low is being held further away to the south than the previous run.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
22 February 2018 16:20:03


Sounds to me like there's a lot of crucial data still to come then Steve


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Solar Cycles
22 February 2018 16:20:26
Much better output for most of the UK on this run if snows what you’re looking for, snow to the E and NE pushing across the country, usual caveats apply.😎
Joe Bloggs
22 February 2018 16:21:17

Stunning output so far, absolutely amazing. 


The -10C 850 hPa isotherm reaches the east coast at T+84. That's reliable territory and I think now it's full steam ahead for something very special. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_84_2.png


Expect early warnings from tomorrow IMO. 


 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
SJV
22 February 2018 16:21:20


Everywhere you look the output is incredible 


Rob K
22 February 2018 16:24:14

GEM is on exactly the same lines. Looks like UK on for direct hit of that intense cold pool.

Originally Posted by: squish 


 


GEM is crazy. -17C into East Anglia being pursued by a tongue of -20C out of Holland. 


Make that -18C at 168 hours in the Thames Estuary and the -20C a whisker away. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
22 February 2018 16:24:57


 


Rather than remain completely ignorant I had a look.  Not only is the upper warmth kept at bay the surface temps are bone chilling towards the end.


 


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


When you get deep cold like this 850s become completely useless to use as a generalized benchmark. They are still useful but you need to change your expectations. 0C is no longer your enemy.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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