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kmoorman
23 February 2018 16:43:39


 


Agreed. People may initially think GFS is disappointing at first glance - but it could create severe disruption for significant sections of the country. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_174_25.png 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Is that showing snow depth?  Over how long? 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Rob K
23 February 2018 16:43:41


 


 


Hope it does end up like ICON as its stunningly snowy end. It's very difficult to know what it would look like at 7 and 8 though.


We mustn't lose sight on just how good the output is at the moment its unbelievably stunning from all models upto day 7.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


what I mean is that the high to our north gives up and allows northeasterlies in instead of the direct cold easterly flow. The duration of the easterly flow is being steadily eroded to a two-day wonder. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
23 February 2018 16:43:42


 


Agreed. People may initially think GFS is disappointing at first glance - but it could create severe disruption for significant sections of the country. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_174_25.png 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


And I very much doubt the gfs is leading the way here ECM ukmo and GEM all ahead of it in my view.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
23 February 2018 16:44:13


Nothing in 2005 here but 91 was excellent.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


We'll have to see. So hard to tell. 


We do need to remember that this cold pool is just so significant, the showers could be more widespread and potent than previous events. We're not in the most favoured area that's for sure - but I wouldn't rule anything out. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
NickR
23 February 2018 16:44:18


 


 


Yes you are pretty much in the sweet spot for snow there in the NE somewhere like Consett could get 100cm I reckon. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Consett, Tow Law. I agree 100cm is not impossible. They'll be cut off, no doubt.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Rob K
23 February 2018 16:44:44


 


 


Is that showing snow depth?  Over how long? 


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


It's the depth of lying snow at that time point. Take with large bag of salt. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
jhall
23 February 2018 16:44:56


From bitterly cold to bitterly disappointing in the space of 12 hours. 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


However by that point almost the whole country has a substantial snow cover, ao it might be a price worth paying. Of course this far out it's pointless to obsess too much about the detail. The low might pass further to the south, move more quickly north, or even never appear at all.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Joe Bloggs
23 February 2018 16:45:14


 


 


Is that showing snow depth?  Over how long? 


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


Yes amount of snow lying in cm on Friday 6pm.


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
kmoorman
23 February 2018 16:45:57


 


It's the depth of lying snow at that time point. Take with large bag of salt. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


It certainly looks like someone has applied salt in the SE corner

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
kmoorman
23 February 2018 16:48:30
The GFS Op once again (4th on a row?) goes for a much quicker breakdown from the South... on each of the previous occasions, it's been very much on the mild side of the ensemble. I wonder if that's still the case or do we have a new trend?
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Solar Cycles
23 February 2018 16:52:00


 


Agreed. People may initially think GFS is disappointing at first glance - but it could create severe disruption for significant sections of the country. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_174_25.png 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Lol, that’s the most depressing chart of the winter IMBY........ Everything’s gone green. 😜

Rob K
23 February 2018 16:52:24

The GFS Op once again (4th on a row?) goes for a much quicker breakdown from the South... on each of the previous occasions, it's been very much on the mild side of the ensemble. I wonder if that's still the case or do we have a new trend?

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


The GFS led the way with the original easterly idea so I'd probably back GFS over the others, albeit I think it may be overdoing the strength of the low pressure attack. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
23 February 2018 16:52:45


 


 


It certainly looks like someone has applied salt in the SE corner


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


GFS is notoriously progressive. I would wager a ton of salt that low is further south on the day.


Anyway, I’m not being drawn into a debate about 168hrs when we have 5 days of exceptional cold and snowy weather to deal with first. 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Joe Bloggs
23 February 2018 16:53:45


 


GFS is notoriously progressive. I would wager a ton of salt that low is further south on the day.


Anyway, I’m not being drawn into a debate about 168hrs when we have 5 days of exceptional cold and snowy weather to deal with first. 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Indeed.


And that 12z MetO run. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Polar Vortex
23 February 2018 16:54:34


 


It's the depth of lying snow at that time point. Take with large bag of salt. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Glad to hear it, only shows 2cm of snow for my location 

Thetford
Norfolk
ASL: 45 m or 148 ft
Nordic Snowman
23 February 2018 16:54:44


Incredible output yet again to be frank.


MetO is amazing. 


T+120 https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007 


T+144 https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1007


Brutally cold with a snow risk for many.


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Agree with that Joe.


Awesome charts from the METO 

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
jhall
23 February 2018 16:54:59


Lol, that’s the most depressing chart of the winter IMBY........ Everything’s gone green. 😜


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


If you click on the chart to enlarge it, you'll see that the green is only less deep snow rather than no snow at all. And if Blackburn is about where I think it is, you could have about 7 cm.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Arcus
23 February 2018 16:55:18

The GFS Op once again (4th on a row?) goes for a much quicker breakdown from the South... on each of the previous occasions, it's been very much on the mild side of the ensemble. I wonder if that's still the case or do we have a new trend?

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


Don't worry, normal service is resumed at the end of the run.


For me you just have to see a run like ICON at T+180 to see the struggle going on later in the runs for the models. Not worth losing sleep over.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2018 16:55:32

I have my eyes firmly fixed on this thread.  After waiting all winter for snow it seems it might arrive just when i’d Rather it didn’t!  Sod’s law!


Serious question, that I know can’t be answered for certain yet but I‘d like to know what’s likely if you experts can help. We’re driving from North Notts to Birmingham on Thursday morning for an afternoon flight.  Will we make the journey and will the flight leave?  How much snow am I going to miss?  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
doctormog
23 February 2018 16:56:42

The GFS Op once again (4th on a row?) goes for a much quicker breakdown from the South... on each of the previous occasions, it's been very much on the mild side of the ensemble. I wonder if that's still the case or do we have a new trend?

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


Definitely wait for the next ensembles as I suspect this will again be one of the milder options in the medium to longer term.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Solar Cycles
23 February 2018 16:56:49


 


If you click on the chart to enlarge it, you'll see that the green is only less deep snow rather than no snow at all. And if Blackburn is about where I think it is, you could have about 7 cm.


Originally Posted by: jhall 

Its in the 1cm area. 😂😂😂

Gavin D
23 February 2018 16:58:10

12z GFS has the cold peaking on Wednesday and Thursday where afternoon temps remain sub-zero


120-778UK.thumb.GIF.ae52472718184a59c8249f01742f032a.GIF144-778UK.thumb.GIF.ac0057e9cc8e5feccc0a6073c90f8da9.GIF


The end of next week and into the following GFS 12z shows temps recover slightly for some


168-778UK.thumb.GIF.882534a3541b7d9ad0d5d54bad1af321.GIF192-778UK.thumb.GIF.a208d2ecb1689959a35bb4b52568675e.GIF


216-778UK.thumb.GIF.624d6090dcbfd21a9a955538760a8b40.GIF240-778UK.thumb.GIF.0a00847945d7fc7137ccc7f6ff15690b.GIF

Rob K
23 February 2018 16:59:02
Not a very convincing breakdown: this is T384.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=384&code=0&mode=1 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
23 February 2018 16:59:07

The GFS Op once again (4th on a row?) goes for a much quicker breakdown from the South... on each of the previous occasions, it's been very much on the mild side of the ensemble. I wonder if that's still the case or do we have a new trend?

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


 


Yes definitely a trend and not one we want to see realised . But ECM and GEM and their ensembles consistent in keeping it cold to day 10. So I think the GFS Op is still unlikely. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
23 February 2018 17:01:17


 


Indeed.


And that 12z MetO run. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


The 12Z METO is the worst for several runs IMO. It's all collapsing by 144 hours towards a west-based NAO with a gaping hole open to the south. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
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