No need to worry IMO.

I think GFS tends to overdo in these situations and I wouldn't be that surprised if in a few days from now, we were all egging for the Low to push further N as I suspect that it will run further S than shown here.

Yes I seem to remember earlier this winter (or was it last winter?) there was a low progged to attack from the south and bring snow to the south coast. I think it ended up making landfall somewhere around Bordeaux. 

It didnt actually Rob , the Met did with the first forecast nearly 3 weeks ago, they were clearly onto something .

GEM 12z slowly recovers the 850's through next weekend and into the following week - remaining chilly but temps a wee bit higher eventually

I meant in terms of models. It wasn't totally consistent of course but it was keener on the idea than the others IIRC. 

Disagree, it's better than the 00z, and exceptionally cold/snowy for many.

Are you a bit of a perfectionist or something Rob?  

You won't get much better than this, come on man!

In my view after T+144 the Iberian Low will continue its journey ENE giving us continued cold weather (NE'lies) with a continued snow risk. 

Control runs the low pressure up the east coast and keeps us in bitter 850s with snow for all...

The mean looks colder than 6Z by T192. Still -8C in the south on average. Looks like the op is on the mild side again. 

That's correct Marcus. I can clearly recall one MetO 16-30 day update either at the start of this month or maybe the end of January talking about the possibility of much colder weather coming along at some point towards the end of Feb/start of March. There were some hints in deep FI in a few GFS op runs around that time that someting was possibly afoot, although that far ahead there was no real consistency to these hints.

The chart at that point is obviously bitter and great. But my worry is that the core of the heights is heading too far away from us into Greenland. In 2010 that happened and that's why for many in the south it was a soggy affair that didn't really reflect the subzero monthly CET. 

That map - wow! Brian quite a breakdown but at least we will all see snow . I am a little skeptical though about that because as mentioned before the OP run has mostly been the one that's really keen to break this easterly down compared to many other. What's also strange is that the mildest of air will arrive in the south east Thursday night into Friday but it will remain colder for the South west which is rare but mostly due to the fact the SW would be on the colder side of the low pressure system as it moves eastwards and the milder air never really reaches Scotland.

They talk about the snow being powdery and dry but by Thursday this looks like hours of heavy wet snow Thursday night followed by rain all occurring during Thursday night so when we wake Friday morning it will be more of a slushy affair. 

I am being very pedantic but if this one came off then we could be looking at heavy snow turning to heavy rain esp the south east. - To be frank I don;t think the models have quite got a grips with the precipitation charts yet. - But looks like it could be a wet morning rather than a white one for the SE if this came about.

The low pressure could take a different track so who knows!?

I just can't see it being so mild so soon in Kent 9am on Friday temps of +7c. - I think the GFS has gone off on one!?

Indeed Rob.

PS: I think the METO T144 is great! The High does retrogress towards Greenland but it will allow a renewed injection of colder air from the NE. I see no worries.

Low pressure likely to take a more southerly track. 12z op one of the milder options suggesting this is the case. Worth keeping an eye on definitely but as many have said take that 'breakdown' with a pinch of salt.

Yes the Control is mentally cold and snowy no breakdown at day 7 here.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=1&carte=0

Edit break down for the south day 10 

The deep cold to the NE on the +144 UKMO is capable of acting like a blocking high of its own.

It even generates its own higher SLP because it's so dense - hence a lot of models now showing a narrow surface ridge aligned with it by Fri-Sat.

It adds a fascinating twist to things just when we'd otherwise be at the mercy of an evolving west-based negative NAO setup - although I'm not sure given stratospheric signals that the blocking high will actually go so far away. 

The elongated shape of the LP to the south on the +144 UKMO suggests it is continuing to follow the (very!) southerly-tracking jet into the Med. more than break away N in the style of GFS.

I would actually expect, going forward, to see the LP continue across to Italy or thereabouts, with deep cold still moving across the UK from the E or NE albeit not at such brisk pace as earlier in the week, leaving us wondering if the polar vortex will pay us a visit from Siberia way before the remnant cold pooling had even had time to clear away.

That last part depends on how the second bout of anomalies propagating down from the stratosphere happen to orientate, so not worth getting too interested in at this time - especially given what we've got to deal with next week!

12z GEFS means. You can see why the pro's are now referring to the potential for a historic cold spell.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_96_2.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_120_2.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_144_2.png

Direct hit. Sensational. 

ICON and GEM disrupt the model consensus.  FI at t72.  Very cold or cold.  Snow, but where is up for grabs.

Be careful to choose the right model to get snow for your location, or record cold.

Well if we have "English channel effect snow" then it will turn milder for sure for a time. The snow would be heavy south of the M4 (makes a change). It looks like the snow will start falling Thursday evening and be dry and powdery and then become heavy wet snow and turn sleety Friday this is my guess anyway but at least it will turn colder behind.

However, if the low takes a more southerly track then at least we stay in the cold easterly and will enjoy powdery snow flurries and showers for longer!?

Looks good to me too.