Good stuff. Wouldn't be surprised to see all the energy taken out of these attempted breakdowns though. I've seen enough of them fail over the years (having lived in S Wales and the West Midlands for a good while) Or we end up with fronts clipping Kent before sliding away. GFS operational seems to be overdoing it a bit..

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There would be some extremely cold minima at the end of that ECM run in that slack flow, rivers might actually freeze!

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Clueless. BBC South have always been clueless.

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Im seriously thinking there’s a conspiracy not to alarm the general public going on here. How the hell can they not see what is there in black and white. Amazing really.

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In our manor probably not overly much until later next week - and that's still an long way off.

Yes, was going to say something similar. Would not surprise me to see the incoming lows at the end of the week from the SW taking a more and more southerly track on the other models as the runs continue.

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Not a bad ECM I spose - would mean some places could have snow on the floor for over a week, with no quick end in sight as sub -10 850s continue to be pulled towards the UK from the NE.

It's a bit different to the GFS Atlantic incursion - personally I'd go with ECM being closer to correct simply because the GFS version of LP spins up vigorously and pushes the cold air aside (down here) seems a bit implausible. There's no steering jet and the LP is bumping in to dense cold air. 

 

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Agree. I honestly thought we had reached the peak of insane winter charts but that ECM is the pick of the bunch by a country mile. If that verifies we could in places be talking feet of snow not inches and enormous drifts.

I am due to start a new job a week on Monday. Might be snowed in on day 1?

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WRF also shows the 500dam line a whisker away from the UK at 117 hours:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=117&mode=17&map=20 

Maybe I will hijack Quantum's -20C thread with a 499dam hunt!

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I might ring the BBC.

Then Susan Powell or Darren Bett can say:
"Earlier on today apparantly someone rang the BBC to say there was a blizzard on the way. Well, if you're watching, don't worry there isn't."
😂😂😂🌨🌨🌨

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Yeah, it's kind of a strange chart. I thought I'd accidentally selected the ensemble mean at first 

 

Wonder if we can beat the -16C we managed here in dec 2010?

Is there anything the general public need to know in order to prepare for what could be a serious extreme cold weather situation? As I mentioned before on this forum I cannot understand why there have not been more weather warnings / news alerts for next week if these charts are to verify ? It really is quite worrying ......

See this article. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.666/full

 

The coldest on record would be 1987 with possibly 495 (lowest sounding was 497), and 1956 had 497dam. 

Would be quite a coincidence if we kept up that 31 year cycle with 2018.

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Their forecast temps have been a waste of time since the meteogroup change. I reckon they overstate by 1 to 2c atm. I feel sorry for people watching that and thinking it's going to be a bit chilly with chance of snow.

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ECM = amazing
My only moan would be that at T +72 hours the convective potential doesn't look as good as GFS due to shape of high. However that is a very minor point.

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As said before, ignore their detail for now.

Put another way: if they showed disruptive and substantial snowfall for that far out and it didn't happen, what would they look like? They would look like clowns whereas they would be perceived as merely updating if/when they talk it up the sooner it gets to the event.*

*Presuming it pans out as the majority of the ENS at this time.

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Fantastic ECM run - simply off the planet - the sort of charts we generally dream about but never expect to see.

However, a word of warning - the second strat warming knocked out the Canadian vortex, so those charts showing a breakdown of the cold after about 5 days could be right - the reason is simple. If the residual Canadian vortex were still hanging around the Hudson Bay area, it would prevent the Greenland High from continuing its westard retrogression - but the whole hemisphere is now circulating the "wrong way" with anti-zonal winds aloft - therefore, there is nothing to stop our HP continuing into Canada, setting up a west bast NAO and allowing the Atlantic back in to western Europe from underneath. Just one to watch. Personally, I just want the snow and cold to last until Monday 5th March and if we can have a great weekend of lying snow and sub-zero temperatures, I shall be happy - my concern at the moment is that we could lose the cold before a week on Saturday and have a thawing weekend, instead of a winter paradise.

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Not being funny but even the met have highs of 1-2C for next week for Portsmouth area, and warmer on the IOW.. Temps only go out to Thursday though.

Thanks Ben 👍🏻

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It's the immovable object vs the resistible force. The cold air, once entrenched, as James said earlier, acts like it's own block without the need for especially high pressure to do the work.

Let's see where that run stands against the mean in half an hour or so.

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Following from my post above, I do think that South Today showing 4-7c is absolutely absurd. I can understand their reservation regarding the potential snowfall at this range but to show temperatures that high is at odds to what all the models are saying and they are failing the public. We all have the data and can interpret that data but most of the public wouldn't know how to. Most in Portsmouth wouldn't even know their E from their W 

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It's nothing new. They've been doing it for decades.

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Did I mention I'm due to move house in the next few days? Trying to get the WS reinstalled will be a challenge. 

I honestly keep expecting the models to pull back, you watch a GFS run come out and think "ok that makes sense" for the blended and half expected less cold conditions, only for ECM to roll up it's sleeves and say "I DON'T THINK SO" 

If there's to be a reload from the north/northeast then Wow, this really could be something special.

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Haha , definitely the greatest model run of the internet era . Perfection. 

 

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that is a very fair point and does make sense...I suppose though I am surprised that given the current output they don’t hint at potentially more disruptive weather could be on the way next week, but still considerable uncertainty and stay tuned to the forecast sort of thing. This would give your average punter a bit of a heads up without setting too many hares running...Of course it may turn out they were spot on not to start issuing warnings at this early stage.