I had to drive up to Lancashire in January and was a little worried abouttravel disruption, but didn't think that a planned journey to London in the first week of March as in the least bit under threat. Guess what!

A personal moan really...but do I see 'snowstorms' appearing for 2nd/3rd March, typically the weekend I will be in Madrid. The only thing I can remain positive about is seeing the really deep snow back in December, so I can't complain too much.

Back early Monday, so what are the odds any fallen snow will still be around or will it be drip drip by Sunday?

That’s assuming we won’t already be snowed in and I make it to the airport.  And assuming if I do make it, the planes aren’t frozen on the apron!  And there was me thinking booking for early March would be safe!  

This happened to me in 2015.  We’d had no snow until 21st January, when we were flying to the Caribbean from Gatwick.  It was coming thick and fast and at 3am when we set off, there was no traffic on the roads to shift it!  We only just made it out of our village because we followed a gritter and fortunately all lanes of the M1 had snow ploughs!   

Stop killing the buzz, dude!

Nah, I was only thinking earlier that if the snow isn't as widespread as we all hope, this thread could get busy next week.

Well it now looks as though "the cold spell of the century" is going to vanish as quickly as it comes in. Why does it wait until it is looking pretty foolproof and the Met Office warn everyone before it all goes wrong. Waits till we finally at the last minute tell everyone (knowing we've learnt from past mistakes of declaring it too early!) how epic it really is this time then it changes in the space of about 12 hours, never to change back!

Well that’s the worst bit, it hasn’t come in quickly. We’ve been watching this develop for weeks, then on the cusp of it an increasing amount of output decided there’s going to be no extended cold snowy spell, and you can make do with a few days instead before the milder air walks in and shows it rules the roost in default patterns. No need to watch mild air develop for weeks. 12 hours and it’s showing it’s hand strongly. 

Could all change tomorrow for the better, and I’m sure certain people will say “looks ok here”, but we’ve all been here so many, many times before in the south haven’t we? 

Did you get good snow in Feb '91 though? I ask that because I was living in Manchester at the time, very close to you in fact (Whalley Range) and the only snow I can recall is a very light dusting (may have been snow grains) blowing in waves down the road in the strong eastery wind. I would definately remember a significant fall as for the time I was in Manchester it was almost completely snowless.

Aside from the dewpoint, that's pretty standard down here too. It's why I regard -10C as the starting point for snow coming in from the sea, not the be-all and end-all. Just as well for both of us the 850s and thicknesses will fall significantly below -10 and 522, isn't it?

(And I mean, hell, the GFS shows 501dam air for you from this... I really don't think you can moan when you have record-breaking low thicknesses for the time of year coming your way!)

Yes, you’re right. To be honest it was more of an observation (which I didn’t want to put in the model output thread) rather than a moan. I’ll leave that to Richard. 

Thats interesting - clearly Feb 91 was dry here then! 

Must have had my snow events mixed up. 

And of course, we all know what Richard is like as there could be a foot of snow lying in his part of Aberdeen and yet, I am in no doubt that he would still be complaining about there not being two feet of snow instead in his area if that happened.

I very much doubt there will be a foot of snow here. I'll believe an easterly will deliver only when I see it with my own eyes. Right now I'm expecting nothing better than a repeat of March 2013 and currently we have the classic mind-numbing easterly rot. Slate grey skies with a low of +3.2C and currently +3.7C. Absolutely awful and makes two months out of two so far this year with worse weekend than weekday weather 

Having record low uppers means absolutely nothing when the skies look like being completely slate grey with no clear periods all week. Absolutely no deep cold is forecast here all week with temperatures unlikely to fall much below -3C which has been achieved at this time of year under +10C uppers before 

LOL!

If that's what you say when you in fact have record deep cold air coming your way....

It's ok Darren, he's in character at the moment.  

I think I'm in one of the worst locations for this week to far west for much with the initial easterly then the wind turns more south easterly and snow showers seem to dry up for more of the SE. Then probably to far east for the low pressure at the end of the week. Then after that it gets to warm. Hope I'm wrong but feeling very pessimistic this morning .

I'd forgotten how fraught these spells are when you're not in the obvious firing line for snow.

Different models/runs have snow from Tuesday's little feature missing altogether or managing to get far enough across. 

Then there's Friday. GFS has been persistently bullish about the snow reaching this far north, some other models less so. Some TWO regulars are convinced it will, others convinced it won't. Met Office forecasts think a fairly brief period of light snow.

All in all I haven't a clue. I don't want to miss out, but also know I won't be that happy with a cm or two either, when a broad swathe of the UK is going to get buried. Given many previous let-downs, there's an overriding pessimism about these events.

I really wish I wasn't so immersed in this weather crap and could just see what came to pass without the anxiety.

I definitely recall snow during that Feb 91 event. It started Wednesday night here with snow showers coming across the Pennines. We had a covering and there were further snow showers during Thursday and a longer period of snow during the afternoon. Definitely snowed and with a covering. 

I genuinely share your pain, Saint. 

Wish I didn’t care either way.