I genuinely share your pain, Saint. 

Wish I didn’t care either way. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

It's also next to impossible to discern what the TWO 'experts' think, because they're [understandably] focusing on their own areas, which is predominantly in the SE.

And then there's the relentless whining in the MO thread from the Prophets of Doom Collective and their affiliates in the Society of Bedwetters throwing in pointless noise that just confuses the situation further.

What's your take on how this is looking like shaping up, Joe?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Well that’s the worst bit, it hasn’t come in quickly. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

The problem is, I just don’t know. Sounds like I’m dodging the question, but I’m totally clueless. 

Severely deep and exceptional cold pool? Check. 

No sign of marginality? Check. 

The issue we have is our location in the North of England. The air is so cold then I doubt there’ll be an issue with convection developing in the North Sea. It’s whether or not these showers can survive their journey across the Pennines. History says that sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t. They certainly did in 1996, in 2005, and according to Kevin, in Feb 1991. But did they in 1987? Not sure. I notice the flow is now forecast to be an ESE’ly. Is this a good direction for us - I’m thinking a direct easterly, or ENE’ly may be better? 

Then we have the issue of the front at the end of the week, currently forecast to be intact this far north. You shouldn’t have a problem, but South Manchester faces the dreaded snow shadow effect yet again.

I think we’re going to be in a frustrating part of the country - you may do better than Manchester, or vice versa. 

Would be interested to hear Kevin’s thoughts on a comparison with past events. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

The problem is, I just don’t know. Sounds like I’m dodging the question, but I’m totally clueless. 

Severely deep and exceptional cold pool? Check. 

No sign of marginality? Check. 

The issue we have is our location in the North of England. The air is so cold then I doubt there’ll be an issue with convection developing in the North Sea. It’s whether or not these showers can survive their journey across the Pennines. History says that sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t. They certainly did in 1996, in 2005, and according to Kevin, in Feb 1991. But did they in 1987? Not sure. I notice the flow is now forecast to be an ESE’ly. Is this a good direction for us - I’m thinking a direct easterly, or ENE’ly may be better? 

Then we have the issue of the front at the end of the week, currently forecast to be intact this far north. You shouldn’t have a problem, but South Manchester faces the dreaded snow shadow effect yet again.

I think we’re going to be in a frustrating part of the country - you may do better than Manchester, or vice versa. 

Would be interested to hear Kevin’s thoughts on a comparison with past events. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

9

Chichester is even worse off than Portsmouth Now that weather warnings are issued, Chichester is

• just outside the western edge of Tuesday's boundary 


• just outside the northern edge of Wednesday's boundary 


• just outside the eastern edge of Thursday's boundary 

You'd be hard put to design charts to give such a set of near misses!

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Beast from the east - more like a fart from the continent! 

Super cold air the the coldie trolls have banged on about.. ha! 

We barely scraped a frost, and it's now 1.6C with a likely prospect of it ending up between 2-3C today if the cloud persists, and higher if the sun comes out.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Well, so much for this so-called "legendary" cold spell which for this part of the world, is turning out to be nothing more than a massive legendary non-event in this part of the world as too much cloud after midnight resulted in the temperature going up, so that it's not even all that cold here. On top of that, we did get one of the very lightest and briefest flurries of snow during this morning, but this was very much a "blink and you'll miss it" event and the truth of the matter is that there hasn't really been a single bit of snow here.

Instead of that, we have virtually constant grey skies throughout this morning and instead of this so-called "exciting" weather which was going to arise according to the models, we have ended up with the same old boring weather here with absolutely nothing of any sort of interest happening here yet again, thus proving once and for all that our weather has got a lot more boring these days with hardly anything of interest ever happening any more.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Sorry but the stats speak for themselves. The cold pool over the UK in the next 72 hours is the third or fourth coldest since radiosonde measurements were introduced in the 1940s. That's a simple fact and can't be argued with. The usual suspects would also have been complaining in 1956, 1987 and 1991 because it didn't meet with their own impossibly high standards.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yep it may well be cold up above but at the end of the day it's pretty much March now and that that will affect what happens at the surface.. it just seems the usual suspects will probably continue to be in denial of this fact whilst scratching their heads at the sun melting snow for example 🤣

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Come back to me in 72 hours.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I will be more than happy to do so but then, what's the betting that I'll still be saying exactly the same thing then as I am now?

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_36_2.png

Unlikely. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I note that the Met Office's website is slow today. Indeed some of the info isn't even available.

I note that we are in the beginnings of a severe spell of weather.

I also note that taxpayers, who not only part fund the Met Office, will want to keep abreast of the situation as it unfolds.

My question is: Is it unreasonable to ask the Met Office to pay for a bigger fukcing server to cope with the extra traffic?

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 

I just want to moan about people moaning. The proper cold air hasn't even arrived yet and people are already desperate to call it a non-event. Some people seem to think that easterlies in the past were non-stop 10ft snow across the entire nation from start to end.

As it stands we have amber warnings for snow for the next three days, and the wintriest five-dayer in memory:

UK forecast for the next 5 days

Headline:

Sunny spells and snow showers. A bitterly cold easterly wind.

Today:

Mostly dry with sunny spells across western parts of the UK, but snow showers in the east will become heavier and gradually spread into central parts during the day, with accumulations likely. Feeling bitterly cold in the easterly wind.

Tonight:

Further snow showers, locally heavy, in eastern and southeastern parts. Clear spells and a severe frost for many. Heavy and persistent snow arriving into Scotland and northern England later.

Tuesday:

A spell of persistent snow moving southwestwards across parts of the UK on Tuesday. Sunny spells and heavy snow showers elsewhere. It will feel bitterly cold in the wind.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Extremely cold with a significant wind chill for most. Widespread snow showers Wednesday, with the largest snowfalls across northeastern Britain. Possibly some disruptive snowfall across the south Thursday into Friday.

If we get to the end of the week and nobody has seen any snow then feel free to moan.

Originally Posted by: Rob K