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picturesareme
17 July 2013 19:37:36
The whole northern horizon is scarred with cells - a line going northeast to southwest. Still exploding up now as I type.
Darren S
17 July 2013 20:24:37

It looks like the storm over Bracknell has both lost some intensity and turned left, so it'll pass us by to the SE. The sky is dark in that direction, it's very quiet, but I don't think I need to dash around getting all the garden furniture in.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


My wife says the heavens have opened in Yateley, despite the seeming loss of intensity. It must have been really torrential a bit further NE

Originally Posted by: Darren S 



Bracknell had 9.8mm in about 15 minutes.

http://www.weatherfamily.org/bracknell/ 


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
David M Porter
17 July 2013 20:34:40



Some vigourous hard-edged cauliflower towers going up to my south now.



Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Classic hot weather convection.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


That is one impressive looking cumulonimbus cloud, I must say.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
idj20
17 July 2013 20:48:39
A quick glance at the outputs are producing some very tasting lookingstorm potential overSouthern Engand and the SouthEast by this time next week (Wednesday night). It is a very long way off in forecasting terms, of course, and I still need to bone up on humidity and dewpoint levels, etc, to understand and get a better idea of it all but initial impressions are looking good anyway.

But I did get a little excited when I looked at this (pressure for this time next week): http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=180&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD =

I'm quite confident on this thundery stuff for that middle part of the week but what's going to happen once that's all done and dusted is really anyone's guess.
I'm tempted to say that it'll be a little cooler and changeable in nature thereafter but that's really my own take on things but chances are that it'll take us back to the hot and dry weather anyway.

PS: Excellent cumulonimbus photos, guys!
Folkestone Harbour. 
Jiries
17 July 2013 22:27:18


This cluster of developing cells became the major storm that affected the Slough area an hour ago. I took the shot from the A30, just SW of Hartley Witney 



Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


My wife said few drops of rain over my flat area and heard rumble of thunder around 5.30pm.  It was hard to see the cell clouds due to thick haze.

VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
18 July 2013 01:59:31
It occurs to me, you can not see a thunder cloud develop right over you? Only at distance can you see the height/cauliflowers and the anvil? So if one develops right over your head, the first real sign is lightning! ! jeeeeeeeeeeeeps!!!!!
Arcus
18 July 2013 05:47:01

It occurs to me, you can not see a thunder cloud develop right over you? Only at distance can you see the height/cauliflowers and the anvil? So if one develops right over your head, the first real sign is lightning! ! jeeeeeeeeeeeeps!!!!!

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER 


There would be several signs that a thunderstorm was developing overhead before llightning occured, not least the fact it would be getting pretty dark! An increase in wind would indicate inflow into the storm as well.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
18 July 2013 07:37:24
That comment was a bit tongue in cheek, of course there's other signs of T-Storm developing above oneself!!
idj20
18 July 2013 07:40:02

Come to daddy. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=192&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=

But of course, it being eight days away, that is light years in forecasting terms anyway.


Folkestone Harbour. 
nsrobins
18 July 2013 07:58:55

Agreed that chances of thundery conditions is now increasing into next week, but Sunday night looks decent for import potential. Some of the output this morning brings imported storms into the Southeast.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
18 July 2013 08:22:44
Will we get any action in the East Midlands...........? Leicester to be more specific, and would it be home-grown, rather than imported dirty stuff..?
VSC
Darren S
18 July 2013 10:36:48

According to this thread on uk.sci.weather (the 7th post), someone who lives 100 metres south east of the Met Office Roundabout in Bracknell recorded 24mm of rain in yesterday's thunderstorm, including some hail.


https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/uk.sci.weather/uETb7b9N6JQ


He certainly was in the sweet spot!


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Charmhills
18 July 2013 10:43:13


According to this thread on uk.sci.weather (the 7th post), someone who lives 100 metres south east of the Met Office Roundabout in Bracknell recorded 24mm of rain in yesterday's thunderstorm, including some hail.


https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/uk.sci.weather/uETb7b9N6JQ


He certainly was in the sweet spot!


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


I say that was possible since some of the central cores of these storms were very intense, 150mms per hour in some.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
nsrobins
18 July 2013 11:02:14


It's more of the same with respect storm potential really. No major triggering but the soup is primed so to speak so a push from mainly topography will be required, as it has been for the last week.
The high-res ppn models more or less follow the BBC graphics this morning in developing the odd storm around the Herts/Berks area and maybe down into Surrey later.

My eye however is drawn to an uptick in chances of a decent plume for early next week - one to watch.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Well some cells certainly punched through as forecast. I missed tracking them as I was playing cricket yesterday evening but could see the tops of these cells even from S Hampshire.

On to today and the sweet spot will be far SE Wales and into Avon/Somerset for cell formation.
Then we have Sunday evening . . . .


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Arcus
18 July 2013 11:54:29


On to today and the sweet spot will be far SE Wales and into Avon/Somerset for cell formation.
Then we have Sunday evening . . . .


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I wouldn't ignore SE Scotland and NE England, Neil. A chance of convergence storms breaking out there this afternoon.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Arcus
18 July 2013 13:28:07



On to today and the sweet spot will be far SE Wales and into Avon/Somerset for cell formation.
Then we have Sunday evening . . . .


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


I wouldn't ignore SE Scotland and NE England, Neil. A chance of convergence storms breaking out there this afternoon.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


We have the first signs on the radar of cells popping up just to the NW of Newcastle.


EDIT: Something brewing north of Swansea as well.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
GIBBY
18 July 2013 14:32:47



On to today and the sweet spot will be far SE Wales and into Avon/Somerset for cell formation.
Then we have Sunday evening . . . .


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


I wouldn't ignore SE Scotland and NE England, Neil. A chance of convergence storms breaking out there this afternoon.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


We have the first signs on the radar of cells popping up just to the NW of Newcastle.


EDIT: Something brewing north of Swansea as well.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



...and now Cornwall too.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Arcus
18 July 2013 14:41:19
It all looks a bit disorganised unfortunately, with cells firing and dying quite quickly.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
18 July 2013 15:12:07
Ok, beginning to understand cap breaking and cape.... with regards to thunderstorms. ... thanks all who helped.
What are and how do "CONVERGENCE STORMS" OPERATE??
VSC
Arcus
18 July 2013 15:22:10

Ok, beginning to understand cap breaking and cape.... with regards to thunderstorms. ... thanks all who helped.
What are and how do "CONVERGENCE STORMS" OPERATE??
VSC

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER 


Convergence is one method of providing extra lift to unstable air, often aiding in breaking though a cap if one exists.


It is a result of converging wind fields in a particular location (e.g. winds from the W meeting winds coming in from the E). Where they meet the air is forced upwards (providing extra lift).


One common scenario when this might happen is when sea breezes kick in on hot days (when the land becomes much warmer than the sea), and meet the prevailing wind inland which is coming in from the opposite direction. Or it might be that 2 sets of sea breezes meet in the middle of a peninsula, as with the big T-Storms over the interior of Cornwall that led to the Boscastle floods.


 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
18 July 2013 16:08:43
Cheers, much obliged ref convergence storms. ..... thought it might be something like that, what other circmstances can thunderstorms arise?
Cheers
VSC
Jive Buddy
18 July 2013 17:00:51

Cheers, much obliged ref convergence storms. ..... thought it might be something like that, what other circmstances can thunderstorms arise?
Cheers
VSC

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER 


Have a look here VSC...


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_topics5_Library.aspx


There's a couple of very informative articles on convection - well worth a read :-)


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
VIRTUAL STORMCHASER
18 July 2013 23:49:59
Ta!!!!
VSC
beaufort
19 July 2013 10:26:15

Trough developing to my South over Angers and progged to move North. I shall await developments later this evening.

WMB
  • WMB
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2013 12:23:57

Convection over western fells now - combination of sea breeze converegence and orographic uplift.


I can see this ending up with some flashes and bangs later...

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