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Quantum
Tuesday, November 26, 2013 11:40:39 AM



The Met Office must be so frustrated by this sort of thing. Read the comments and people are saying things like "Well if that's what the Met Office are predicting then I'll get the BBQ out". People see a weather story and assume it is the Met Office.


 


Mr Rao even shoehorned in a quote from the Met Office at the end, saying it would be settled and HP dominated with the risk of frost and fog for the next few days... but oh no that means minimum temperatures will be a bit below average!


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Why does the metoffice get so much flak for its seasonal forecasts, which though sometimes wrong, are more reliable than most. And yet people buy into this -20 by september the 20th and millions will die crap that happens every year. Even hillariously in 2011!


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whiteout
Wednesday, November 27, 2013 1:36:07 PM

Tweet from Ian:


Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 1h


Colder spell expected later next week may last somewhat longer than initially suspected but longevity & influence to S UK very uncertain



Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Russwirral
Wednesday, November 27, 2013 3:41:39 PM


Tweet from Ian:


Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 1h


Colder spell expected later next week may last somewhat longer than initially suspected but longevity & influence to S UK very uncertain



Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


 


Its always good to hear stuff like this - espeically as there has been similar posts mentioning similar things on the MO thread.  Lets see how the 12z pumps out.


WMB
  • WMB
  • Advanced Member
Thursday, November 28, 2013 7:48:06 AM
Private Eye must read us - there's a parody of the Daily Express and it's "weather forecasts" in the latest issue.
The Beast from the East
Thursday, November 28, 2013 11:01:52 AM

I dread to think what the Express will do about next weekend's cold spell.


They will probably say "we told you so all along" and people are so thick they will fall for it


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
moomin75
Thursday, November 28, 2013 11:03:25 AM


I dread to think what the Express will do about next weekend's cold spell.


They will probably say "we told you so all along" and people are so thick they will fall for it


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

My thoughts entirely. It's almost worth the model being  totally wrong and a balmy south westerly airstream next week.


Obviously at this range, it could well be entirely wrong - so let's hope so!


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Sevendust
Thursday, November 28, 2013 12:28:32 PM



I dread to think what the Express will do about next weekend's cold spell.


They will probably say "we told you so all along" and people are so thick they will fall for it


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

My thoughts entirely. It's almost worth the model being  totally wrong and a balmy south westerly airstream next week.


Obviously at this range, it could well be entirely wrong - so let's hope so!


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I can hear Marcus priming his A47

Gooner
Thursday, November 28, 2013 2:07:07 PM




I dread to think what the Express will do about next weekend's cold spell.


They will probably say "we told you so all along" and people are so thick they will fall for it


 


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

My thoughts entirely. It's almost worth the model being  totally wrong and a balmy south westerly airstream next week.


Obviously at this range, it could well be entirely wrong - so let's hope so!


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I can hear Marcus priming his A47


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Looking for something a tad bigger Dave


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
Thursday, November 28, 2013 2:11:28 PM





I dread to think what the Express will do about next weekend's cold spell.


They will probably say "we told you so all along" and people are so thick they will fall for it


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

My thoughts entirely. It's almost worth the model being  totally wrong and a balmy south westerly airstream next week.


Obviously at this range, it could well be entirely wrong - so let's hope so!


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


I can hear Marcus priming his A47


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Looking for something a tad bigger Dave


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

 You don't mean that Marcus!


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
Thursday, November 28, 2013 5:20:49 PM
Poor update from the Meto seems to go along with the latest GFS 12z

UK OUTLOOK For Tuesday 3rd December 2013 to Thursday 12th December 2013

Mostly cloudy and generally dry for most of the UK on Tuesday with light winds, but outbreaks of light rain and strengthening winds in the northwest will move slowly southeast through the day, with scattered showers following in the northwest. Through to next weekend southern Britain will remain generally cloudy but dry, with colder, more changeable weather in the north spreading slowly south. Temperatures initially around normal for the time of year in the south, but it is set to turn colder from the north. Later in this period, the cold weather will gradually give way, first in the north, but finally in the south with milder westerly winds and unsettled weather reaching the north later. The south will probably remain more settled.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
Friday, November 29, 2013 9:07:43 AM

Daily Express press the nuclear button today


BIG FREEZE TO LAST THREE MONTHS


Whats more astonishing is they say its official Met Office. Can they be sued? What can be done about Mr Desmond?


 







"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Sevendust
Friday, November 29, 2013 9:19:26 AM

Note the 3 main sources in the article. I'll say no more

ballamar
Friday, November 29, 2013 9:22:42 AM

Poor update from the Meto seems to go along with the latest GFS 12z

UK OUTLOOK For Tuesday 3rd December 2013 to Thursday 12th December 2013

Mostly cloudy and generally dry for most of the UK on Tuesday with light winds, but outbreaks of light rain and strengthening winds in the northwest will move slowly southeast through the day, with scattered showers following in the northwest. Through to next weekend southern Britain will remain generally cloudy but dry, with colder, more changeable weather in the north spreading slowly south. Temperatures initially around normal for the time of year in the south, but it is set to turn colder from the north. Later in this period, the cold weather will gradually give way, first in the north, but finally in the south with milder westerly winds and unsettled weather reaching the north later. The south will probably remain more settled.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Surely it's only poor if it's wrong?
tinybill
Friday, November 29, 2013 9:28:26 AM
well get got me supply of rock salt !!! looking at the models anything could happen after DEC 5 !!
micahel37
Friday, November 29, 2013 4:00:04 PM

Met office response to the Express article:


 


http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/11/29/the-met-offices-outlook-for-uk-winter/


 



However, the Met Office hasn’t issued a warning along these lines and we have not highlighted months of ‘exceptionally cold’ weather ahead. If there is any sign of significantly cold weather or disruptive snow in the forecast, we will keep the country up to date through our forecasts and warnings.



 


Polbeth, West Lothian 150m asl
Gooner
Friday, November 29, 2013 5:36:25 PM

UK Outlook for Wednesday 4 Dec 2013 to Friday 13 Dec 2013:


Much of England and Wales will be cloudy on Wednesday, with occasional rain clearing southwards. Further north, a mixture of bright spells and showers is most likely, especially in the north and northwest, with sheltered eastern parts mostly dry. Some of the showers may be wintry over hills, and it will be windy. More persistent rain will spread southwards during Thursday with further showers following from the northwest. These showers may be wintry in the south with snow possible from northern England northwards. Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below normal at first, but it may turn colder from the north on Thursday and feel colder still in the wind. Thereafter, it should gradually become more settled from the southwest with temperatures slowly recovering to nearer normal.


UK Outlook for Saturday 14 Dec 2013 to Saturday 28 Dec 2013:


There are signs that the period will start generally settled, with temperatures near average for the time of year. However, there are indications that later in December a change to more unsettled weather may develop, particularly towards the north and northwest of the UK. This would mean that the best of any drier and brighter conditions would be further south and southeast. Temperatures look to remain around normal.


Issued at: 1600 on Fri 29 Nov 2013


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Saturday, November 30, 2013 10:13:42 AM

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead


From weatheronline , caution as it is taken from the GFS 0z


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Saturday, November 30, 2013 11:17:10 AM

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:


Monday, rather cloudy, some light showers, mainly in the northwest. Mostly light rain edging southeastwards through Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers following, perhaps wintry over high ground in the north.


Issued at: 0400 on Sat 30 Nov 2013


 


 


UK Outlook for Wednesday 4 Dec 2013 to Friday 13 Dec 2013:


Much of England and Wales will be cloudy on Wednesday, with occasional rain clearing southwards. Further north, a mixture of bright spells and showers is most likely, especially in the north and northwest, with sheltered eastern parts mostly dry. Some of the showers may be wintry over hills, and it will be windy. More persistent rain will spread southwards during Thursday with further showers following from the northwest. These showers may be wintry in the south with snow possible from northern England northwards. Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below normal at first, but it may turn colder from the north on Thursday and feel colder still in the wind. Thereafter, it should gradually become more settled from the southwest with temperatures slowly recovering to nearer normal.



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
Saturday, November 30, 2013 11:43:59 AM


Daily Express press the nuclear button today


BIG FREEZE TO LAST THREE MONTHS


Whats more astonishing is they say its official Met Office. Can they be sued? What can be done about Mr Desmond?


 





 
 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/weather-wars-met-office-denies-predicting-three-months-of-exceptionally-cold-weather-amid-reports-of-britains-coldest-winter-ever-8973755.html


 


 


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Matty H
Saturday, November 30, 2013 11:47:43 AM

They quoted one scientist as saying "one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever". Hence atmospheric 'chaos' means that long range forecasting is paritcularly difficult.
The blog goes on to state: "Speculative forecasts appearing in the media and claiming to accurately and definitively forecast UK weather months ahead are therefore doomed to failure when analysed over a long period of time."
Despite various experimental methods aimed at long-term forecasting it remains an inexact art. As for this winter the Met Office is saying that as things stand, December is set to be "fairly normal".


doctormog
Saturday, November 30, 2013 12:51:23 PM

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:
Monday, rather cloudy, some light showers, mainly in the northwest. Mostly light rain edging southeastwards through Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers following, perhaps wintry over high ground in the north.
Issued at: 0400 on Sat 30 Nov 2013


UK Outlook for Wednesday 4 Dec 2013 to Friday 13 Dec 2013:
Much of England and Wales will be cloudy on Wednesday, with occasional rain clearing southwards. Further north, a mixture of bright spells and showers is most likely, especially in the north and northwest, with sheltered eastern parts mostly dry. Some of the showers may be wintry over hills, and it will be windy. More persistent rain will spread southwards during Thursday with further showers following from the northwest. These showers may be wintry in the south with snow possible from northern England northwards. Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below normal at first, but it may turn colder from the north on Thursday and feel colder still in the wind. Thereafter, it should gradually become more settled from the southwest with temperatures slowly recovering to nearer normal.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Today's Met Office 6-15 day update has a slightly higher emphasis on wintry conditions:

"UK Outlook for Thursday 5 Dec 2013 to Saturday 14 Dec 2013

A band of rain will spread southwards during Thursday, giving snow over high ground in Scotland and northern England. Clearer, colder and windy conditions will follow from the northwest with showers, these falling as snow from northern England northwards. Showers may turn wintry in the south later on Thursday and during Friday but the south and southwest should see the driest weather. Temperatures are likely to be below normal and feel colder still in the wind. Little change is expected during the weekend, with unsettled and cold weather continuing, and snow for northern Britain in particular. Thereafter, milder conditions are likely to spread from the west across much of the UK, with some more settled weather over the south."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html 

glenogle
Saturday, November 30, 2013 1:27:49 PM


That's an encouraging update that.  Tom Shaveyerknackers highlighted the colder air coming in next week on N24 last night.


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
tallyho_83
Saturday, November 30, 2013 10:27:29 PM



Daily Express press the nuclear button today


BIG FREEZE TO LAST THREE MONTHS


Whats more astonishing is they say its official Met Office. Can they be sued? What can be done about Mr Desmond?


 





 
 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/weather-wars-met-office-denies-predicting-three-months-of-exceptionally-cold-weather-amid-reports-of-britains-coldest-winter-ever-8973755.html


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Crazy, like what colder weather??? there maybe one day next week on Friday and possibly Saturday where it becomes colder, but then after it's mild....well according to the GFS OP run anyway!?!?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


schmee
Saturday, November 30, 2013 11:04:01 PM
BBC 2220 northerly blast by next Friday . The globe view showed deep blue cold air and white arrows coming at us from the arctic.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
DeeDee
  • DeeDee
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Saturday, November 30, 2013 11:08:12 PM

BBC 2220 northerly blast by next Friday . The globe view showed deep blue cold air and white arrows coming at us from the arctic.

Originally Posted by: schmee 



And snow was mentioned

Harpenden, Herts.
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