Gav we would need something like this to get that high and plenty of sun.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1921/Rslp19211005.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1921/Rslp19211006.gif

resp 1921 october

4th: 27.2C 5th: 28.9C 6th: 28.9C 7th: 26.7C 8th: 25.6C 9th: 27.8C 10th: 25.6C

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 2nd 2013.

All models show a warm and moist Southerly flow over the UK with a marked and severe weather event possible in the SW tomorrow, extending further NE through the day. After some heavy overnight showers and area of potentially disruptive thundery downpours will move up across the SW of Britain and other Western areas later before it swings East over remaining areas as a narrowing band late in the day. On Friday pressure will be rising with sunny spells and showers before the South falls under the influence of a strong ridge of High pressure at the weekend and start of next week. The North will see this change much slower with some rain still expected through the weekend and into Monday before the ridge extends North.

GFS shows much of next week dry and on the mild side with some warm sunshine at times but a fair amount of cloud at times too in the Southerly breeze. Late in the week a trough runs North up the West side of Britain with a spell of more unsettled weather for a time before fronts cross East over the second weekend with some rain for all. the end of the run sees more changeable and cooler weather developing as deeper and more meaningful Atlantic depressions push in from the West.

UKMO shows a ridge of High pressure close to Southern Britain early next week with Westerly winds across the North carrying cloudy and damp weather. In the South a better chance of some brighter conditions is likely where it will feel rather warm.

GEM shows a more tentative approach t settled conditions next week with the weekend High slipping away East and allowing shallow Low pressure to deliver some showers for a time. The SE flow is prevalent though and this will certainly maintain temperatures above average with some warm sunshine possible at times though cloud amounts could be troublesome with local fog patches at night.

NAVGEM looks similar to UKMO tonight at 144hrs with a ridge near the South while a Westerly flow over the North weakens. The weather will become fine for all thereafter with the chance of some sunshine and temperatures rather warm for the time of year.

ECM continues to show High pressure dominant next week centred to the East of the UK with a strong ridge West over the UK. Some weak fronts will graze the West later in the week but no significant rain is likely with some warm sunny spells for some in temperatures well above the seasonal average.

The GFS Ensembles show a sustained period of temperatures rather above normal though there is a trend between members tonight that things could turn more average at the end of the run as cooler uppers approach. Amounts of rain are still very limited with the SE holding on to the dry weather next week the longest. The operational is the exception to this rule in the South during week 2 however but it stands in isolation.

The Jet Stream flowing to the South of the UK currently breaks up over the following 48hrs before re-routing to a position NW of Britain by next week.

In Summary it is no surprise that this morning's very warm ECM has been modified somewhat but the message remains the same with High pressure becoming the driving force to the UK weather next week as it centres to the East or SE fending off rain bearing fronts and depressions to give a lengthy period of benign and quiet weather with the potential for rather warm conditions, a fair amount of cloud but some warm sunshine on occasion too.

Transcript taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

I know what you mean - a deep high pressure pulling in air from the Med or even further south.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 3rd 2013.

All models continue to show a warm and very unstable Southerly flow over the UK with a major disturbance running NNE across the UK today and tonight. In association with this is a prolonged period of very heavy rain perhaps with thunder in places. It moves through SW England and Wales this morning and more Eastern and Northern areas tonight. A clearance follows before a wrap around feature spreads another band of squally rain East overnight followed by cleaner and fresher air with better visibilities by tomorrow. Through tomorrow pressure is shown to rise smartly from the South with dry weather extending North through the day. Through the weekend things could stay more unsettled in the far North under an Atlantic influence still but Southern areas will stay dry and fine with some overnight fog patches.

GFS then shows next week with the fine weather extending further North to all areas by midweek as High pressure settles over the UK with widespread mist and fog problems night and morning but some welcome sunshine each afternoon if the fog clears. Changes through the following weekend and out to the end of the run are slow but indications show that it may become somewhat cooler and more changeable with some rain at times in a more Atlantic based airflow.

UKMO shows unsettled weather still clinging on to northernmost parts early next week while the South lies under a ridge of high pressure and fine and pleasantly warm weather with fog at night. This then spreads North to affect all areas by midweek when fog could become quite persistent and dense in places, slow to clear in the mornings.

GEM shows the north as still very changeable early next week with some rain at times and cooler weather than of late while Southern areas stay mostly dry and mild with a lot of cloud and some patchy fog at times overnight. Then a spell of dry and settled weather develops under High pressure for a while before this edges away East and setting up a very mild Southerly flow with a lot of cloud but any rain restricted to the far West late in the run.

NAVGEM has a strong Westerly flow over the North early next week with some rain in places while the South is dry and bright close to a ridge of High pressure in the channel. Through the midweek period the rain and wind in the far north moves away and is replaced by fine and settled weather as High pressure builds over the UK with bright and dry days when it will feel reasonably mild in any brightness while nights could become rather cool with extensive mist and fog problems late in the week.

ECM completes the pattern with it too showing an unsettled beginning to next week in the North before fine weather already over the South extends North from a finger of High pressure extending West from Europe. With light winds and quite stagnant air later in the week mist and fog could become extensive and dense and slow to clear through the daytimes. in any brighter spells that break through during the day it would quickly become warm locally.

The GFS Ensembles maintain their bias towards mild conditions lasting through the next few weeks. there is a lot of spread between members North and South from the middle of the run though more options go for mildness than anything dramatically chilly. Rainfall is sporadic and restricted to the next few days in the South and building again towards the end of the run. The North too show some members giving a reasonable spell of dry weather in the North too at times.

The Jet Stream is currently migrating back North today along with our monsoon like depression before settling in a position moving NE to the NW of Scotland by the weekend and through much of next week.

In Summary today after the current spell of rain leaves the South dry weather looks like predominating here for the reliable time frame thereafter while the North holds on to the unsettled and breezy regime somewhat longer. All models then support a build of pressure Nationwide next week with a spell of stagnant and benign weather when mist and fog could become a major issue night and morning especially inland and in the South. What happens longer term remains open for debate with most output keen to continue a fairly quiet for October pattern of weather through the first half of the month with temperatures no worse than average and often somewhat above.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

The October Month AHead Forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looks a pretty mild month, but a colder snap possible later on perhaps?

Thanks Gavin as always, I thought at the start of the video you would be handed an oxygen mask going through the ads that quick

H P dominates the GFS 6z

Thanks Gav

Sometimes I like to get through the ad's stuff and get on with things ASAP.

GFS 12z , HP dominated

All we can hope for Marcus is the warm dry October, cold winter theory, which is very dubious, but we shall see.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday October 3rd 2013.

All models show the warm SE flow of recent days moving away NE at the expense of fresher SW winds and rising pressure from tomorrow. The locally heavy rain of today is now moving away steadily North while a second pulse moves North and East across the South of the UK overnight with some squally and thundery downpours possible for a time. By morning fresher and clearer air will move into the South from the SW and this will extend further North over tomorrow and the weekend with sunny spells by day but mist and fog problems developing at night across the South. Further North the weather will stay a little breezier and cloudier with occasional rain in the far North and NW.

GFS then shows High pressure building over all areas next week with some fine and warm weather with some mist and fog at night, slow to clear in the mornings which will be rather cooler than of late. Any sunshine through the days though will make it feel pleasantly warm in light winds. Later in the week the High slips away across Europe with Low pressure eventually feeding it's way in from the West with breezier and cooler conditions with rain at times.

UKMO closes it's 12 noon output with a transfer of the main High pressure cell from the SE of Europe to the NE Atlantic with slack winds over the UK with the risk of extensive mist, fog and low cloud becoming a stubborn beast to clear in otherwise fine and dry conditions with some sunshine.

GEM tonight holds High pressure close to Southern England at the start of next week before it transfers to be to the East of the UK later next week and weekend with a warm Southerly bringing warm and settled conditions for most areas of the UK with the extreme West and NW gradually becoming more cloudy with the chance of a little rain in places.

NAVGEM has High pressure further South with more Atlantic winds for a larger slice of the UK at the weekend and start to next week. This would mean less in the way of mist and fog due to more breeze and the cloud and rain shown by other output in the far North would extend further South by NAVGEM to some Central areas too. Temperatures would be close to or somewhat above average.

ECM tonight shows High pressure developing over the UK next week before moving slowly off shore later to the East. there will be a lot of dry and fine weather for all areas with mist and fog problems night and morning but if the sun is allowed to break through the gloom then warm afternoons would be likely. There seems little overall major changes likely to take place in the immediate days following the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles again show a mild set tonight, especially for Southern Britain with probably around 80% of the members going for a milder than average run. In the North there is a lot of spread between members though from the midway point with rainfall fairly limited in amount with plenty of dry weather too especially but not exclusively in the South.

The Jet Stream has recently weakened to the South of the UK and is currently drifting steadily Northwards over the UK. A new arm then develops to the NW of the UK moving NE in response to High pressure ridging up towards Southern Britain over the weekend.

In Summary tonight another anticyclonic spell of weather is on the way. After a reasonable weekend next week looks fine and warm with mist and fog the only significant problems which could spoil the weather through the week, especially by day as it could be slow to clear. Temperatures look like staying on the warm side of average though nights could be quite cool at times.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

HP continues to rule

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png

temps at least a little lower...............only just though

Good morning folks. Here is this morning's trip through the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday October 4th 2013. Sorry about the wide paragraphs my normal pretty troublefree transfer method failed me this morning.

All models show the remnants of this weeks warm and moist airflow exiting Northern Britain to be replaced by a fresher West wind and fast rising pressure today from the South. By Tomorrow and Sunday Southern areas will of become under the influence of High pressure close by with fine and dry weather with the risk of overnight mist and fog patches. Further North a Westerly breeze will persist carrying cloud in association with Atlantic troughs with occasional rain through these areas for the weekend and start of next week. From then all models diversify in the way they show High pressure affecting the UK.

GFS quickly builds High pressure through all of Britain early next week with fine and dry days but potentially foggy night which would likely be slow to clear each day. the nights would be cooler than of late and this will extend to the days too if fog fails to lift significantly enough. Later in the week and Easterly breeze may lift fog to low cloud in the South which could prevent it from forming overnight here otherwise little change is expected next weekend. through the second half of the run High pressure drifts far enough East at times to allow some ingress of Low pressure from the Atlantic with occasional rain at times almost anywhere. However, as shown it would not be a significant breakdown with mist and fog in the continuing light winds still likely with near to average temperatures.

UKMO keeps the north rather changeable to start the new week before High pressure builds across all areas with a centre to the NW which would serve to carry colder and fresher air steadily South over the UK next week with mist and fog highly likely and maybe some ground frost in the North later.

GEM also shows a changeable start to the new week in the North while the South stays dry before a build of pressure from the North this time settles over Scandinavia towards the end of next week and the weekend with a mild ESE flow developing over Southern and Western areas. most places will stay dry throughout with fog at night becoming less likely in the fresher breeze at the end of the run.

NAVGEM shows that after a few unsettled days for Central and Northern areas early next week as shallow Low pressure crosses the weather would settle down again for all as High pressure moves down from the NW covering the UK at the end of next week with fine and dry conditions but extensive mist and fog night and morning when it would feel cool.

ECM shows high pressure well established right over the top of the UK for much of next week before it slides away ESE next weekend as troughs edge in slowly from the SW in a slowly freshening SE breeze. despite this most places will hold dry through the latter stages of the run with the incidence of fog a major issue almost anywhere night and morning with the risk only slowly lessening into low cloud as the SE feed increases at the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles show remarkable consistency this morning for temperatures to hold 2-3C above normal aloft over the period of the coming two weeks with very little rainfall anywhere considering we will be deep into October.

The Jet Stream is currently realigning it's position to settle well to the NW and West of the UK over next week and probably beyond as it is steered around the High pressure which will become parked near or over the UK.

In Summary the weather next week and probably beyond remains set fair as High pressure becomes the dominant player in the weather over the UK. The main issue will be one of fog and temperature. If fog forms it will become hard to clear in the morning with the greatly weakened strength of the sun now and if that is the case the cooler nights than of late will extend through the days too making for typical quiet Autumnal weather. However, where it does clear with warm air aloft temperatures will respond well and the afternoon's could become quite warm. It is hard to see from this morning's output where the next significant unsettled weather will come from with a weak bias towards an ingress of the Atlantic late on in some extended outputs I've seen but there is hardly enough evidence to suggest this as a trend.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Thanks Martin.

Still slowly slipping into winter...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Met/o going for a chilly northerly but the ECM does not.

Thank you Martin

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn27617.png

Summer continues for the SE at least

Hi all,

Here's todays (delayed) video update;

High Pressure Goes On And On...

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Think it may turn a bit cooler, later.

Cheers Gavin. Tonight's outputs do show some signs of change later next week and beyond. is it a blip or will it develop further over the coming days

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday October 4th 2013.

All models support rising pressure across the UK but especially over the South where High pressure edges up into Southern Britain later in the weekend. Northern areas will stay breezier with a weakening cold front moving SE across Scotland and Northern Ireland and reaching as far as Northwest England and Wales before losing it's identity by Monday. It's at that point when the models differ in the way they interpret High pressure with regard to positioning next week.

GFS shows High pressure moving over the UK and away East later next week with a freshening Southerly wind and troughs bringing some rain East into the UK later in the week. It would again feel rather warm in any brighter spells with a very limited risk of fog for a time early in the week. Then through the extended part of the run the weather becomes more mobile as a train of deep Atlantic Lows cross NE to the NW of Britain with cloudy and windy weather with occasional rain for all areas but always heaviest to the NW.

UKMO has an alternative way of handling High pressure next week with the main centre transferring to a position to the NW of Britain by midweek. A cold front would sink South across all areas later in the week with rather cool conditions developing especially at night with some ground frost possible in the North and fog more extensively across many areas at times by night and morning, especially later next week.

GEM alternatively shows High pressure slipping away SE next week with a SW flow developing over many parts especially towards the NW where troughs moving NE would deliver rain at times through the weekend and start to the second week.

NAVGEM uses the Northern route for High pressure, positioning it to the North of Scotland by midweek before it slides slowly SE down the North Sea all the while maintaining dry and fine conditions for many with the risk of mist and fog night and morning with dry and bright days.

ECM is keener on removing High pressure away East later next week at the expense of Low pressure edging in off the Atlantic spawning a period of warm and moist Southerly winds again ahead of potentially quite heavy rain followed by a showery weekend especially in the South.

The GFS Ensembles show a more unsettled second half of output tonight than was shown this morning and this is supported by some other outputs from GEM and ECM. Temperature wise continues to look milder than average with surface winds maintained from a warm source and supported by 850 uppers above average for October.

The Jet Stream shows the flow relocating to the NW of Britain this weekend and much of next week before it gradually descends back South to be flowing West to East across the British Isles by the second half of the run.

In Summary there is a bit of movement towards a more unsettled end to next week and beyond from this evening's output. The programmed High is still on course to affect all areas at some point next week and for much of the week in the South with dry and fine conditions with mist and fog problems night and morning. There are stronger signals though for Low pressure to edge in from the Atlantic from the NW or West late next week and onward with some rain at times, possible heavy in mild and humid conditions.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday October 5th 2013.

All models show a build of High pressure over the South of the UK over the next few days while Northern areas remain under a fairly weak West or SW flow with a weak trough edging SE through Scotland and Northern Ireland to rest over Northern England tomorrow with a little rain in places as it moves South. With very light winds and some clear overnight skies the South becomes at risk of mist and fog patches in light winds.

GFS then shows this pattern continuing at the start of the new week with the North still at risk of a little rain for a time before all areas become fine as High pressure rebuilds to the NW sinking SE. The risk of fog increases midweek for all before a freshening SW wind again over the NW brings a renewed risk of occasional rain over next weekend. The second half of the run suggests a North/South split in the weather developing with windier and more changeable conditions with occasional rain at times in the North in brisk West or SW winds while Southern areas maintain a lot of dry and fine weather with some warm sunshine by day and patchy fog at night in temperatures still well above average for October.

UKMO today also shows the changeable conditions in the North to start the week giving way to nationally fine and dry weather from midweek as an intense anticyclone develops over the UK with fine and dry weather with near average temperatures by day but with such stagnant air mist and fog could become a widespread, dense and disruptive issue late next week which would become slow to clear in the mornings. Where it persists the rather cold nights would extend through the daytimes too.

GEM also shows a similar UK based High later next week with fine and dry conditions with mist and fog problems night and morning. Later in the run it slips the High away to the SE but always maintaining a ridge up across the UK with fine and dry weather continuing with some warm sunshine developing outside of any persistent fog. With a Continental drift to the wind any sunshine in the afternoons would lift temperatures well above average.

NAVGEM has High pressure moving slowly off shore to the East of the UK later next week with a warm South or SE flow developing late on but only the far West coming under risk of any rain as troughs move in close next weekend. Mist and fog at night could be an issue midweek, gradually lessening under a freshening breeze later.

ECM today shows a somewhat different scenario with High pressure building north next week replacing the Westerly winds in the North with a Northerly then NE flow later in the week. Much cooler air would be fed South across all areas midweek with some showers in the SE late in the week before High pressure establishes itself over the UK late next weekend and the start of week 2. The air is much cooler than the other models show which would support even slower clearances of overnight mist and fog as well as introduce the chance of some frost at night with daytime temperatures dependant on whether the fog clears or not. If it does some afternoon sunshine could raise temperatures to average in light winds.

The GFS Ensembles support another week of above average uppers translated down to the surface too for much of the time as winds occupy themselves from a Southerly aspect. In week 2 a slow decline in temperatures is supported with the incidence of rain shown on the increase as well. having said that a fair amount of dry and benign weather is also shown for many members through Week 2 too.

The Jet Stream today shows the flow almost having realigned to the NW of Britain where it is maintained over the coming week in response to a build of High pressure near the UK. It does trend further South and East across Britain in Week 2.

In Summary it's High pressure that is likely to dominate the UK weather in the coming two weeks. There are differences between the outputs in the positioning of High pressure which would have profound differences on the weather at the surface. Most models support high pressure drifting East or SE next week which would feed up some more Continental Southerly winds between areas of night time mist and fog whereas UKMO and ECM draw down some cold air from the North midweek with High pressure becoming immersed in rather cooler uppers. This would mean that after a warm start to next week cooler conditions, again with widespread and this time cool nights with dense fog, slow to clear in the mornings look likely. The air could be cool enough for some frost to form in places overnight, this more likely where it isn't foggy. Whichever way you look at it the chances of anything wet and wild is still an age away this morning with the rather benign mid Autumn period continuing for the foreseeable future.

Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Finally some interesting weather should be some frosts there. Nice little Northerly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

Thank you Martin..

Shall enjoy the clear spell tonight . Telescope will be out on the patio.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

A very chilly ECM looking this morning.

Running through GFS, I was thinking it had been barking up the wrong tree up to yesterday morning with that chilly notherly. Then I looked through ECM's op run and... what can you say? Immense disagreement that stems from whether low pressure remains cut-off near the Azores between 72 and 96 hours. GFS says no while ECM and UKMO say yes.

Despite matching each other at 96 hours, UKMO has the HP cell increasingly further east than ECM thereafter, with energy to our east not digging SW as much.

More runs needed!