Not if you use the ensemble mean rather than getting hung up on the inevitable variations of FI in the operational runs.

The Op is an extraordinary outlier on Day 10 and only just within the mildest 10% on Day 9. The mean remains in the cold category and is supported by the majority of the ensemble members, which continue to offer maxima around 5C falling to 3C and overnight frosts from Day 8.

There's very little support for anything above average for mid-December.

Q, that is not a Bartlett, that is a Euro high.  There's a fundamental difference - are you not aware?

A Bartlett describes a pattern not a specific chart.  It is a succession of high pressure cells moving west to east from the area of the Azores into continental Europe before sliding and/or fading away to be replaced by the next in the procession.

We have scarcely seen any charts this autumn or early winter that offer that pattern.

A Euro surface high developing from a surge of WAA is not the same beast at all.

The whole of the UK is under high pressure on that chart. There are absolutely no mild winds off the Atlantic anywhere at all. That chart is the complete opposite of a Bartlett.

This is important, because a Bartlett to me implies the Azores High extending immovably over the Continent with no hope of any Northern blocking promoting cold for the UK. That chart you've posted shows the exact opposite - low pressure over the Azores, with high pressure over the UK which could alter shape and position in all sorts of ways.

Or as Gandalf put it more expertly ... 

Cheers Mithrandir - suspected as much. Very glad I came straight to this page and not waded through the last five or else I might be forgiven for thinking a very mild and settled spell was set in stone for the next two weeks

And to add to that, its about the 4th or 5th mildest member only 3 or 4 days into the run so should be taken as an outlier solution for the time being at least.

Why should a bartlett high be necessarily characturised by warm temperatures at the surface? The temperature of the airmass is mild. And the mild feed lasts from 96h to 240h, with the HP stuck over Europe, and LP to the north. How is that not a bartlett high?

EDIT: incidently I am not personally suggesting mild weather either, as my CET prediction will attest  everywhere, although NW scotland will see double figures I'm sure. 

Blimey, I can't believe how people get suckered in by looking solely at the operational output! The ECM ensembles still show a colder spell in the medium term and the operational last night was a massive outlier by day 10. The control run was also a mild outlier by day 10 and it shows mildness continuing to day 15. The bulk of the ensemble members show a much colder outlook than the operational and control.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html
http://oi42.tinypic.com/2n7me86.jpg

I know that won't convince the resident sceptics but if you actually look at the available output you can see that last night was just one of those coincidences when the operationals happened to be mild. Assuming the background signals remain there's nothing to say we won't see the colder cluster represented as an operational next time...

It's clearly not one:

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/117

"Rain, gales and above average temperatures prevail"

Looking at the ECM this morning, I wonder if anyone will fall into the "orange trap*"? ;P

Orange trap - the act looking at a chart with lots of orange on it in winter and assuming it means mild!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Yes, it's a shame that you have to jump through hoops in order to get access to data which is, after all, prepared here in the UK!

I strongly suspect that when those London ensemble charts update later that they'll show mean maxima around 5C for much of the run with the GFS operational way out on its own again. To be fair the GFS has been consistent with that for a few runs now, but I reckon it's being consistently wrong rather than picking up on a trend which ECM has missed.

Indeed - as I've been saying for a while now the signs have been there for a week or so from ECM. The other models chop and change but the ECM ensembles (not the op!) have been remarkably consistent.

(EDIT - here's the London ECM ensemble link for those who've not bookmarked it).

I'm saying no more until the ECM ensembles come out later. Other, that is, to say that Gandalf gets it even if no-one else does!

I hope the GFS surface temps are correct, from saturday here in Torquay we wouldn't drop into single figures day or night until the 20th December!

http://www.skystef.be/forecast19e.html

Hint of North African air in the models for some parts of the UK it seems, all we will need is a strong southerly and it will be more seaonsal in NSW Australia than the UK!

<There has been Christmas days here very close to UK temps when it has been exceptionally mild in the UK and exceptionally cool here>