What people forget is that last dec was the same as this year and the pattern changed mid jan with snow and freezing cold that lasted till March
Regardless of how strong the Atlantic is the pattern can and will change for snow fans in jan
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White
I don't think there will be a SSW riding to the rescue for January as there was last winter - yes, there is warming and a squeeze on the vortex but doesn't look to be sustained or a promising shape atm; things may change of course.
Originally Posted by: nickl
with our understanding of the trop/strat relationship still in its infancy, it's tough to know what will cause a to b etc etc, what is if different this season is the ecm ens now model right up to the top of the strat. (Up till last month they only went to 5 hpa). The current warmings are coming right from the top of the strat so we can look forward to the ecm ens giving reasonable guidance in the event that this affects the trop.
I firmly believe this arctic high will be important but I am not sure if the Atlantic jet will allow it to affect our little bit of nw Europe.
Originally Posted by: nouska
Well, GFS is modelling the strat warming to cover quite an extensive area by the end of the run. Not especially warm - temperatures around -30C at the end (having reached -20C) but the area is working towards the Pole. There's a second area over NE Canada as well.
T+6: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-6.png?6
T+384: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-384.png?6
I read somewhere that retrogression of the strat warming can be an important signal - and the one that ends up over NE Canada retrogresses from north Africa at T+264 and grows/warms as it settles over Canada:
T+264: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-264.png?6
T+324: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-324.png?6
If the trend continues then the second week of January could start to show some more blocked synoptics perhaps?
Originally Posted by: sriram