Of Course, ahem not off course eh, on top of my mind I can say.
There appears to be uncertainty in the GFS and UKMO Models be it in summer or in winter. What we are seeing is it will of course pattern out 48 hours more of total sunny high dominance for UK, but then growing pattern esteem that brings risk of heavy and THUNDERY Showers on Saturday and Sunday- and then a West UK Or SW of UK dry sunny High with Low P and winds plus some SHOWER with cooler air in the Northeast and the East SE UK side.
Tuesday UK Azores High but Iceland Low heads into NW and N UK second half of day!.
Met Office has 27 deg C tops in London and I suggest light winds and partly cloudy skies plus no threat of showers but they may be isolated scattering about, heavy and thundery ones for NE Ireland W and SW Scotland and NW N England as on the Saturday NW winds and Low becomes slow moving even on Sunday and Monday- I am still not clearly clear on the outcome but this period looks clear cut, you never know it can change and surprise us.
Forecasting High Pressure in a lazy weather pattern becomes ever more wobbly and moving SW, West then East and NE and all this at the same time as Low pressure areas are going all the way around Them and with spread out Low pressure that tends to allow the colder air in Greenland and Arctic to our North and some cold Low pressure develop over Svalbard from NW winds straight blowing from Central Arctic this Coming Sunday to Tuesday, that we see our Azores High move over to UK Monday West side UK then across us by Tuesday then Tuesday afternoon SE tracking Iceland Low to N. Ireland and Scotland SE wards later is looking like that our current very warm and sunny Summer will be fading to Autumnal Low's affecting us with heavy showers and NW winds quite often I mean this Saturday - Sunday part of Monday for part of the UK except Western parts, the unsettled comes after High ridge UK Tuesday this pattern is very tentative and more like 2009 to me!!!.
They are expecting a Weak to Moderate El Niño and I have also seen a lot of weather systems in Equatorial West Pacific SE china Tyhpoons and a Low number of Atlantic SE USA Hurricanes- the Central USA between North and South America is much less prone to Hirricanes or typhoons so far this year than we have seen last year.
And an Ecuador Volcanic Eruption also is expected to happen they we're watching it has severe Earthquake Swarms- that was yesterday's news.
The Cooler N Atlantic SST's are affecting our weather, less Hirricanes on the SE USA Caribbean side are also anticipated this year and I have seen this is evident in and has been in June and July this year, one Hurricane went up across E USA a few weeks ago.
The weak to Moderate El Niño they say looks much like that we had in 2009/10, I hear that some parts of Pakistan and India have seen lower than normal by 50% Monsoon rains, but I see some night thunderstorms in Pakistan that then give way to widespread daytime hot and sunny weather but the temperatures are certainly much nearer their normal values there, and there is often Heavy Thundery rain showers in Central India S and NE India at times this July!!.
Some more Joy people, that SW and NW Central India Thundery rain storm I checked yesterday and today looks like readily now or will soon be giving Karachi S Pakistan much needed rain.
The El Niño weak/ Moderate is also keeping the drought in California ongoing and I look at the Conditons in Pacific USA and N Atlantic I have been doing that for at least 3 weeks now, it appears that the long Trailing waves of wind and showers or rain belts are less prevalent in some parts of USA N America I see Low Pressure that is affecting N NE Central parts, NW USA and Central S USA at times with some T storm weather SE USA but it appears lessened with more potent thicker clouds in Western N Atlantic from E and NE USA at times that I see is affecting us as well.
SE Asia Monsoon more potent in Thailand and SE China also has the hallmarks of the Weak- Moderate El Niño Event that we are seeing this year.
What also is amazing is that N and NE Pacific In June and July I seen- ares of wavy rain clouds that appear narrow to medium width, and they indicate only Weak to Moderate Rain making Low Pressures and those are propagated across the USA, but there is a colder Central Greenland with High pressure and clearer skies at times there.
This summer the NE Central N Europe Low Pressure in June was taken over by large and very warm High Pressure and there has always been near or slightly above normal Temperatures and some Thundery showers in E Europe SE Europe through this June and July.
We have had a very mixed and very warm summer but it does appear similar to that of 2009 but actually I think it was often dry and sunny very warm but it had also a fair amount of Thundery showers even in London, and some regular cool winds breezes and lower pressure in between areas of a good couple of High Pressure days that we have had.
This coming winter according to me could be a real kinder surprise, and the next week next 7 days outcome and the pattern we have had this June and July is easily favouring our favourite gossip winter weather come November and December - I think if Global Temperatures remain stable and not rise too quickly and we see a slow down of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and a few more large Volcanic Eruptions and a Quiet Solar Sun in some months we are seeing quiet sun this Juky- same happened last year - I really think that the coming November to February could this time shift the Polar Vortex our way and we get our NW SE tracking wavy Colder Jetstream - A weak to moderate El Niño will also support this result.
Edited by user
24 July 2014 00:27:24
|
Reason: Unspecified
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.