Cheers Gav

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It'a a nightmare Saint..especially as its a beach holiday. As soon as the we get all packed and ready to go in rolls the next deluge. With such cool uppers it takes a while for the temps to recover afterwards. At least the bar is warm and dry most afternoons from 4pm onwards. 

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Well I hope you do get a few good dry, sunny days in, Steve

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I just hope we don't get mostly cooler than average 3 months Steve, then by December back to above average CET's and a wasted Winter! Would be bloody typical on this island. Any way no need for me to moan it's not even Autumn yet!!

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Well, we have another North Atlantic SE Tracking Low from SW Central to SE Greenland going through the System ahem.

Greenland Blocking Anticyclone Central plus also West Northwest Atlantic Anticyclone as well.

Jetstream Arc through SW Central W Mid N Atlantic and the SE Canada plus NE USA produced send to SW Central then SE Greenland and SW of and SE of Iceland and track UK to Norway This Weekend and early Next Week. RIP Blocked Gulf Stream aka NAD Shutdown- that will bring cool wet NW and Cyclonic flow winds heavy rain and Blustery hail and Thunder showers this looks set to last upto at least next week Wednesday to then by day after that easing Northerly flow, High Pressure builds to our SW and South Central and W UK during Thursday and Friday next Week.

Mostly Settled and dry weather for much of SW SE and Central and N mid USA but Depression Low Central N USA and Mid Central Canada recently and is to continue, still Large and Stuck Low Pressure System in Mid Central NE quarter N pacific with NE Russia and NW Alaska PV Low stuck as has been for a long time last two weeks.

Just two Tropical Storms Julio 62mph max. Moves slowly NE 12 mph, and An new Central East Equator Pacific Tropical Storm 62 mph with movement west by 3-6 mph.

Interesting and A good cooling flow from our Arctic to across UK and into Norway and Finland Denmark etc.
Also some Low Pressure with bands of rain last two weeks has been affecting SE Alaska and parts of NW USA still apparently occurring today as well- and still going as was this week and last week, some of this Low Pressure affected last two weeks as areas propagated across North Central West Central USA bringing cooler and rainy spells and heavy showers.

SE and E USA weather last two weeks been and even this week mostly high pressure from the SW or the SE across them, but some NE USA areas affected by spells of rain on a number of times last two weeks linked to East from the NW USA moved to NE USA to Central N NW Atlantic but High pressure kept to our SW over Cemtrla West N Atlantic keeping the West N Altantic flow broken at times over Greenland by large High Pressure there.

Bands of this wet and cloudy weather from NW Mid N Atlantic has been tracked along a strong UK NW Europe Jetstream and conditions over N and NW Europe this August more like normal August setup- I am happy with seeing this!.

💦😎😃

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Agreed and the lame rain shwoers in summer are the most dreadful weather type that goes on for days to weeks like now we been seeing ths every day for what reason?  At least 12z had been pushing the unwelcome LP on Sunday further north and less impact in here on each run then settled down next week in the cool side before a bull eyed HP cell over the UK during BH weekend.  I hope that will come off as it nationwide HP days and extremely good for everyone, tourism business and me to go to the mega car boot sales on BH Monday, last one for 2014 and don't want to see it cancelled after the late May BH was ruined thanks to the wrong forecasts and models.

 

Still going to those car boot sales, George?   

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Still think there's hope for the end of the month or early September for one final burst of summer.

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Yeh, cheers Gav- excellent video again.
Certainly not the best holiday weather coming up next week which would be an absolute sod for those of us away camping😞

August is an autumn month?

😂 this place gets better and better.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY AUGUST 15TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A light NW flow cover the British Isles with a ridge of High pressure crossing SE tonight and tomorrow followed by a freshening Westerly flow and a front in the NW later.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  A mix of sunshine and scattered showers with the driest and warmest conditions developing towards the SW later.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow now having weakened turning SE down over the UK early next week before blowing gently West to East over the UK later before finally strengthening again towards the end of the run.

GFS The GFS operational today shows a mostly changeable period over the coming few weeks with winds predominating from between West and North. High pressure will be tantalisingly close to the South at times so some spells of dry and bright weather will occur but some showers at times too as various showery troughs move down across the UK at times with somewhat warmer conditions affecting the South for a time in Week 2. The GFS Ensembles this morning look broadly similar to the outputb of the operational through the run.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure over Scandinavia with a cool but fairly light NW flow following with a cool mix of sunshine and scattered showers likely through the mddle days of next week.

THE FAX CHARTS With the exception of a ridge crossing the UK early on Saturday the Fax Charts show a complex structure of fairly light NW winds around Low pressure to the NEover the early and middle days of next week with cool weather with scattered showers as a result.

GEM The GEM operational today also shows Low pressure anchored over Scandinavia next week with a cool NW flow across the UK. A lot of bright weather will be shared by all but with scattered showers too but with High pressure increasingly High to the SW showers will become fewer and fewer by the end of the run with temperatures on the rise. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a slack NW or North flow following a front SE on Sunday with a mix of sunshine and scattered showers likely as a result but with some daytime variations on amounts of both sunshine and showers and with time a shift of emphasis towards drier conditions later next week when it could become slightly warmer. 

ECM(12z) The ECM operational today maintains a feed of NW or North winds with sunshine and scattered showers with High pressure edging in towards SW Britain later bringing the hope of dry and warmer conditions later as the cool feed slowly becomes cut off.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The general trend today shows a slight shift of emphasis away from the more generally unsettled conditions shown of late as High pressure to the West or SW looks more influential from most output today.

MY THOUGHTS  Although no heatwave is suggested by any output this morning I feel it is fair to say that conditions do not look as bad as has been suggested by previous days outputs. While winds still look like being maintained from a cool NW direction for a good portion of the time the amount of unsettled and showery weather looks more diluted this morning with many places seeing a fair amount of dry and bright weather. Showers will be evident at times, especially towards the NE of Britain but as High pressure edges in closer to the West or SW of the UK through Week 2 the drier weather will probably gain the upper hand when temperatures will rise somewhat too.

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Matty, August is a summer month normally, but this one is definately autumnal with way below temperatures at least for the London area. Next week looks even worse but of course could change later on.... However lets hope that Gav and Gibby's expectations for late this month come off!

Maybe Summer is on the way back.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html 

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Yes everytime if there no cancellation and today runs show good prospect to see them open this Sunday and BH weekend. Need to go there to buy Lego to sell online which I been doing in the last year and doing very well out of it.  Lucky that I know a good car boot sale dealer she have load of Lego than any other sellers which only come out as random.  She told me it been a poor year trading for her as there was lot of cancellations this summer as most of the good settled spell occur during the week than in 2012 which manage more settled weekends.  Anyway I think the temps of mid 20's to high 20's seem long gone for time being from the latest ensembles, it show some warming up but I do hope to see once or 2 more to see temps near 30C or 30C possible before summer out.  Sea temps are rapidly dropping a lot around the BI and Baltic, which is not normal to see dropping like a stone in mid August. 

Hope so as it been showing very nice BH weekend weather for a long while and hope to stiick it guns when time come near.  We deserved it after a very poor August lately with many unuseable days due to rain showers plague around.

I take it the Canadians wouldn't let you in then!

Placing to many demands on their weather no doubt.

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It's always a summer month. There's no "normally" about it.

You could argue the conditions feel autumnal same as all of last winter felt autumnal.

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Some unusually cold air making it into the UK from the atlantic arctic. Don't think I've seen such an intense cold shot for a while. We are looking at cold daytime temps for N scotland (mid teens), and we may see some nightime frosts. I am looking with interest at seeing some record nightime minima over subsequent weeks, as this is such a good opportunity. 

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The horror when I looked at my 5 day forecast on the met!! No higher then 18C, and even one day with a max of just 17C - a dry day too!! Just unheard off.

And over night lows of 10C what the.. I have chilli plants that will suffer dearly at this time of year in temperatures like those.

I remember years ago in Newcastle commenting on the tree leafs turning mid august, and I remember my grandad saying that it was normal for that time of year, summer is ending and seasons are changing.
I guess for Northern reaches autumn comes earlier just like summer arrives later, I think people sometimes forget that we are a very northerly located bunch of isles and our regional climates can be very different.

For us on the south coast summer can often start mid May and last until mid September.

As the song goes "Two out of three ain't bad"

September will be a scorcher of course Just as the kids go back to school...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-420.png

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Mid teens might be a bit optimistic!

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Hey all,

Here's today's video update:

JMA Friday...

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Looking at the next month with JMA and CFS + A bit more on Beijing Climate Center.

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You never know, never say never. The record for the coldest min in August is in Lagganlia (Inverness-shire) @ -4.5C on 21st August 1973.

I was looking at some charts from that time and the cold plunge from the north in terms of the upper air temp is similar to what parts of Scotland may experience, of course other factors matter in terms of how low the temp goes. The difference compared to 2014 is warmer air across the south of the UK in 1973 which will be absent this time around.

20th August 1973: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1973/archives-1973-8-20-0-2.png

GFS 22nd August 2014: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014081506/gfs-1-168.png?6

 

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It's quite unique considering not all that long ago temps throughout Scandinavia were well above the seasonal avearge, it will be interesting to see how low the minimas drop and how high the freezing level is during this cold plunge.

New thread on the way.

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