theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Frostbite80
09 August 2014 09:51:47
I know this is not an unheard of event but I think this warrants a thread of its own for people to discuss the charts lead up to and aftermath of this event whether you see this as an ex-hurricane or just a depression as I feel there will be some damage caused as well as the possibility of danger to life.
Quantum
09 August 2014 10:25:04

Visible satellite image


You can see it to the SW of the UK, it still looks like it has some tropical characturistics.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Phil G
09 August 2014 10:33:18
Well done Frostbite for starting a thread given the exposure. While not watching every forecast to the event, will certainly be viewing more as details may firm up.
Feels interesting like the hurricanes how forecasters don't know exactly what track it will take, with just hours to go now.
Quantum
09 August 2014 10:46:33

I suspect we are looking at a very active frontal system, although the real story could be the thunderstorms developing in the warm sector, the 'tropical' element. On the NW flank expect very high wind gusts aswell, Wales might see gusts approaching triple figures on the hills.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Frostbite80
09 August 2014 10:54:17

Well done Frostbite for starting a thread given the exposure. While not watching every forecast to the event, will certainly be viewing more as details may firm up.
Feels interesting like the hurricanes how forecasters don't know exactly what track it will take, with just hours to go now.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Thanks Phil I definitely think there is scope for some severe weather if not a few surprises thrown in especially in the way of storms as Quatum has alluded to

Sevendust
09 August 2014 10:56:43

Been discussing this on FB and there is a view that a powerful squall line may develop and run east on the southern flank of Bertha and this fits in with some tasty CAPE/LI profiles

Phil G
09 August 2014 11:03:41

Been discussing this on FB and there is a view that a powerful squall line may develop and run east on the southern flank of Bertha and this fits in with some tasty CAPE/LI profiles

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Thanks Dave. Does that mean chance of tornadic activity.

Phil G
09 August 2014 11:07:53
Untrained eye look at the latest N24 forecast shows while all places will be wet, the heaviest rain in a line from the SW to the Humber.
Wind gusts along its southern flank affecting southern districts with gusts 50-60mph possible with some branches down. Wonder what a slight upgrade on that would do!
Quantum
09 August 2014 11:09:56


Been discussing this on FB and there is a view that a powerful squall line may develop and run east on the southern flank of Bertha and this fits in with some tasty CAPE/LI profiles


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Thanks Dave. Does that mean chance of tornadic activity.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Might be wrong, But I'd say unlikely. EH index tommorow:


http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=fr&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=EHI&hh2=030&fixhh=1&hh=033


http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_eur_fr_00/HI_PN_039_0000.gif


Doesn't look high enough, but this says that the biggest chance of any violent thunderstorms are along the south coast; west to east.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
stophe
09 August 2014 13:27:06
I presume it is starting to show itself to the south west.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ 
KevBrads1
09 August 2014 13:48:35
There is only one Bertha

UserPostedImage

I can't get this out of my head with all this Bertha talk!



Seriously though, this weather event is not needed during the summer holidays.
MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Twister
09 August 2014 15:15:59

There is only one Bertha

UserPostedImage

I can't get this out of my head with all this Bertha talk!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coZfzTcv4bA

Seriously though, this weather event is not needed during the summer holidays.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


I'm not the only one then!!


Looks like the SE may miss the very worst of the rain, but perhaps we're in for a surprise in the form of storms in the morning. Lots of CAPE for a time: https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/stormwatch.asp 

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
ARTzeman
09 August 2014 15:40:30

The rain has started here in the West Country.....





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
The Beast from the East
09 August 2014 17:00:27

There is only one Bertha

UserPostedImage

I can't get this out of my head with all this Bertha talk!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coZfzTcv4bA

Seriously though, this weather event is not needed during the summer holidays.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Yes, loved that programme as a kid!


GFS 12z again firms up the track across the heart of the country

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
idot
  • idot
  • Advanced Member
09 August 2014 17:11:26
What was the catch phrase ? Something like "oh dear, there seems to be a problem with Bertha"

Anyway. Back on topic. Some rain tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/JohnathanSizz 

 
idj20
09 August 2014 17:59:42

I see that the latest GFS run is now showing the South East - especially Kent - to be the windiest place in the world with 30-35 mph sustained wind with 45 mph-plus gusts by this time tomorrow.

That sucks (or rather, blow). I can't even escape that friggin' southerly gale in the summer. Of course I have experienced worse but since when Kent became the new Mount Washington anyway?

Folkestone Harbour. 
Chiltern Blizzard
09 August 2014 19:35:43


There is only one Bertha

UserPostedImage

I can't get this out of my head with all this Bertha talk!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coZfzTcv4bA

Seriously though, this weather event is not needed during the summer holidays.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes, loved that programme as a kid!


GFS 12z again firms up the track across the heart of the country


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Glad there are others who memories of Bertha the tv show were stirred by the "Bertha" storm....


Much as I love warm, benign summer weather for all the reasons that most people love it, it doesn't really interest me from a weather enthusiast perspective.... whereas watching storm systems (like this Bertha) unfold, upgrade/downgrade/fizzle out to a line a patchy cloud etc. does.   Don't envy those on their hols on the south coast though - but then you can expect wall-to-wall sunshine if you holiday in this country.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Stormchaser
09 August 2014 21:43:56

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/08/09/basis12/ukuk/prec/14081009_0912.gif


This looks like a very soggy journey into the departmental building to finish up my dissertation tomorrow morning!


Combined with strong winds along the squall line (if it manifests)... I'm not afraid to admit that I'll probably enjoy the experience 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Global Warming
09 August 2014 22:58:17
TORRO has just issued a tornado watch for tomorrow
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php 

The Met Office has just updated their severe weather warning to now include Northern Ireland. In fact it looks like Northern Ireland may now see some of the heaviest rain. This is due to the low pressure system becoming complex with two centres developing which is now being shown by some models. This makes the forecasting even more difficult.
Quantum
09 August 2014 23:32:17

TORRO has just issued a tornado watch for tomorrow
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

The Met Office has just updated their severe weather warning to now include Northern Ireland. In fact it looks like Northern Ireland may now see some of the heaviest rain. This is due to the low pressure system becoming complex with two centres developing which is now being shown by some models. This makes the forecasting even more difficult.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


http://www.estofex.org/ haven't issued any warnings.


Quite honestly I'm suprised, to me the CAPE doesn't seem high enough for tornadoes. 


http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_eur_fr_12/HI_PN_027_0000.gif


EHI reaching about .5 for quite a large area, this is large enough for supercell formation but really you need >1 to get tornadoes.


Cape only about 12 hundred JKg-1


http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=


to me it looks less favourable than when estofex issued a tornado watch. Need to keep an eye on this though, thanks for the link.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Matty H
09 August 2014 23:45:26
TORRO issue tornado watches all the time. It's no surprise.
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Quantum
10 August 2014 00:17:33

TORRO issue tornado watches all the time. It's no surprise.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Interestingly they didn't last time when esofx did. Tbh I thought TORO was defunct, they had outdated warnings from 2013.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Matty H
10 August 2014 00:20:40
Is this it? What's heading across here now and up the country? If so it's even less of an event than I expected, or is this just some random front ahead of the main destructive behemoth I've been reading about?
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Jonesy
10 August 2014 00:21:12
Bertha starting to knock on the door.

Pouring down here !
Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Quantum
10 August 2014 00:36:23

Is this it? What's heading across here now and up the country? If so it's even less of an event than I expected, or is this just some random front ahead of the main destructive behemoth I've been reading about?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


I don't think so, its just a trailing warm front. The cold front has most of the activity on it, although personally I think we should be watching the warm sector for convective activity tommorow afternoon.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Remove ads from site

Ads