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nsrobins
26 December 2014 23:01:46

No shortwaves it seems to rescue this current potential. A gradual return to westerly type now the form horse as we approach the New Year.
Next effort please . . .

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
picturesareme
26 December 2014 23:40:38


No shortwaves it seems to rescue this current potential. A gradual return to westerly type now the form horse as we approach the New Year.
Next effort please . . .


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


my gut instinct has told me to give up on the idea of snow cover this winter for our neck of the woods. Still... a few frost days would certainly help make it feel more seasonal over the remaining 7-8 weeks of winter.

nsrobins
26 December 2014 23:51:00


 


 


my gut instinct has told me to give up on the idea of snow cover this winter for our neck of the woods. Still... a few frost days would certainly help make it feel more seasonal over the remaining 7-8 weeks of winter.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I'm certainly not discounting snow for Hampshire before the end of Feb - way too early to be doing that - it's just very unlikely before the end of next week and possibly the week after if current operational output is to be taken as the probable solution.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
picturesareme
27 December 2014 00:04:21


 


I'm certainly not discounting snow for Hampshire before the end of Feb - way too early to be doing that - it's just very unlikely before the end of next week and possibly the week after if current operational output is to be taken as the probable solution.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 


 


i admire your optimism on the subject... perhaps northern parts of Hampshire may see a little.

Rob K
27 December 2014 00:19:35


 


 


i admire your optimism on the subject... perhaps northern parts of Hampshire may see a little.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Considering we still had snow cover in Hampshire in April last year I don't think it is over optimistic!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
27 December 2014 01:32:28

All the models failed to get the track of the low right, and actually P19 (where the high provides some resistance) more or less has the LP right. Given this I think the tiny tweaks on the ensembles are underwhelming and the low uncertainty over the next few days is being under-forecast. When the LP clears and the ensembles still show the dreaded flattening, then it is time to loose hope.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Sevendust
27 December 2014 03:52:26

 


Considering we still had snow cover in Hampshire in April last year I don't think it is over optimistic!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Did we?


Only seen snow cover here in April once and that was 2008

Gusty
27 December 2014 07:15:38

I've now thrown in the towel with regard to the high pressure making a late ridge to Scandinavia. We now have to spend the next few days watching it slowly and painfully retreat to its far more comfortable position of mainland Europe as the atlantic returns...shame really.


Hopefully today will be the day I witness falling snow for the first time in 20 months. The Danish shortwave looks to provide a little precipitation too during the early part of the 29th in marginal upper air temperatures.


The atlantic return, although disappointing for the south will continue to offer polar maritime incursions and wintry potential at times for higher ground in the north and west..much has been the pattern so far this winter.


All things considered its back to the drawing board for meaningful and deep cold though.


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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Sevendust
27 December 2014 07:19:44


I've now thrown in the towel with regard to the high pressure making a late ridge to Scandinavia. We now have to spend the next few days watching it slowly and painfully retreat to its far more comfortable position of mainland Europe as the atlantic returns...shame really.


Hopefully today will be the day I witness falling snow for the first time in 20 months. The Danish shortwave looks to provide a little precipitation too during the early part of the 29th in marginal upper air temperatures.


The atlantic return, although disappointing for the south will continue to offer polar maritime incursions and wintry potential at times for higher ground in the north and west..much has been the pattern so far this winter.


All things considered its back to the drawing board for meaningful and deep cold though.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Aye - been pretty standard so far

future_is_orange
27 December 2014 07:28:35


I've now thrown in the towel with regard to the high pressure making a late ridge to Scandinavia. We now have to spend the next few days watching it slowly and painfully retreat to its far more comfortable position of mainland Europe as the atlantic returns...shame really.


Hopefully today will be the day I witness falling snow for the first time in 20 months. The Danish shortwave looks to provide a little precipitation too during the early part of the 29th in marginal upper air temperatures.


The atlantic return, although disappointing for the south will continue to offer polar maritime incursions and wintry potential at times for higher ground in the north and west..much has been the pattern so far this winter.


All things considered its back to the drawing board for meaningful and deep cold though.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Yes looks like a few days of the high meandering then settling south of the UK....the seArch continues for UK wide cold.

picturesareme
27 December 2014 07:58:36


 


Did we?


Only seen snow cover here in April once and that was 2008


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


 and that lasted the whole of several hours until the brutal April sun got to work!!


Even the little bit of snow back in march 2013 melted in the march sunshine. 

picturesareme
27 December 2014 08:05:36


 


Considering we still had snow cover in Hampshire in April last year I don't think it is over optimistic!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


northern half of Hampshire might as well be in arctic Canada when it comes to snow - the southern half of Hampshire, the area in which I was originally talking of rarely sees laying snow.

nsrobins
27 December 2014 08:12:44

There is now probably no reprieve from the slow decline of a cold high into next week. The frosty nights and cold days under an inversion will be nice, but a 'decent' opportunity for a Scandy high is prohibited by the jet roaring away to our North once again.
Yes for many the 'search for snow continues',  but's let not get too poetic about it all - it is only the weather!

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
27 December 2014 08:24:41


 


 and that lasted the whole of several hours until the brutal April sun got to work!!


Even the little bit of snow back in march 2013 melted in the march sunshine. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Not round here. I distinctly remember going out for a walk in the snow in the last few days of March with the car thermometer showing -2C at lunchtime!


Anyway back to 2015 and PGFS tries to build something to the north but soon fails. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs2881.gif


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
27 December 2014 08:39:03

Something is afoot, the GFS and GFSP are both putting up more resistance today, and an undercut appears out of nowhere at the end of the GFSP. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
27 December 2014 08:55:58

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122700/ECM0-168.GIF?27-12


Cant believe uppers would be that cold coming from the west! Must be an error


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
idj20
27 December 2014 09:00:34


I've now thrown in the towel with regard to the high pressure making a late ridge to Scandinavia. We now have to spend the next few days watching it slowly and painfully retreat to its far more comfortable position of mainland Europe as the atlantic returns...shame really.


Hopefully today will be the day I witness falling snow for the first time in 20 months. The Danish shortwave looks to provide a little precipitation too during the early part of the 29th in marginal upper air temperatures.


The atlantic return, although disappointing for the south will continue to offer polar maritime incursions and wintry potential at times for higher ground in the north and west..much has been the pattern so far this winter.


All things considered its back to the drawing board for meaningful and deep cold though.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 



My thinking too. It's starting to look more and more like the winters of '88 and '89.

So much for this OPI theory, then. Even though there is still a good clear two months of which wintry weather still has a chance to make inroads, my confidence is waning by the day, especially after having looked at the jet stream profile for the next 15 days. Just have to hope it doesn't end up repeating last winter all over again - but if it does, at least it started later whereas last year it went all horribly wrong from late December onwards.

Each passing day brings us that little bit closer to Spring, BAM, before we know about it, we're into March. Yes, my thoughts are on being able to sit in the garden smelling freshly cut grass, but I think so most of us are anyway.

PS: Sorry about going off topic.

Folkestone Harbour. 
The Beast from the East
27 December 2014 09:01:35

A few GEFS members maintain the continental influence until the new year and beyond


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-252.png?0

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
some faraway beach
27 December 2014 09:02:03


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122700/ECM0-168.GIF?27-12


Cant believe uppers would be that cold coming from the west! Must be an error


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Feasible. Back of an envelope says the 528 dam line is somewhere over the Channel on that chart:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Brian Gaze
27 December 2014 09:02:50

The pattern and general outlook appears quite similar to 2001/2 (or was it  00/01) when we had a fairly average winter. Average is a distinct outcome and not the norm, with most winters either being mildish or cold.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
27 December 2014 09:21:02


The pattern and general outlook appears quite similar to 2001/2 (or was it  00/01) when we had a fairly average winter. Average is a distinct outcome and not the norm, with most winters either being mildish or cold.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


That means that we will all see a little "white" something! :-)

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Scandy 1050 MB
27 December 2014 09:24:53
My thoughts too looking through the output this morning, however LRF's and the OPI suggest a colder second half of winter so we should see some sign of that by mid to late Jan. They could both be wrong however and that could be it for snow this winter!

In the short term fog and frost could become a problem this week before a return to wet and windy conditions the following week if the models are to be believed - however their record so far this winter has been rather poor with daily swings from one type of weather to another. But early January often is wet and windy in their favour as the 'default' weather type so possibly correct on this one.
nsrobins
27 December 2014 09:32:56


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122700/ECM0-168.GIF?27-12


Cant believe uppers would be that cold coming from the west! Must be an error


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The uppers might look low, but other parameters in a westerly prohibit widespread snow potential. Dps would almost certainly be way the wrong side of zero and maritime mixing in the lower layers also works against snow at sea level. Height and inland yes, as always, but widespread lowland snow I think not.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Quantum
27 December 2014 09:45:19


The pattern and general outlook appears quite similar to 2001/2 (or was it  00/01) when we had a fairly average winter. Average is a distinct outcome and not the norm, with most winters either being mildish or cold.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Wut! Are you saying that winter temperatures distribute bimodally? To me that seems highly unlikely, I would have sworn it would be a nice friendly guassian dist. But still, I'm willing to be proven wrong.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
27 December 2014 09:47:40


 


The uppers might look low, but other parameters in a westerly prohibit widespread snow potential. Dps would almost certainly be way the wrong side of zero and maritime mixing in the lower layers also works against snow at sea level. Height and inland yes, as always, but widespread lowland snow I think not.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Realistically you would really struggle to get rain at -8 uppers, although if any pattern would do it, this probably would.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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