Almost a disaster! -in just over a weeks time - same weather pattern and temps!?

I'll light the BBQ shall I? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18617.html 

Bitter. A good 2c colder than today here 

Of course 1) GFS temp charts are well-respected for their accuracy, 2) the following day it will be in double figures and 3) you're used to it up there

And I should add it made Matty post a snipe so actually it was an excellent observation
 <---  Pacman's been to Iceland

It's hard to see much to cheer about if you want a bit of proper winter.

I think we'll need one of those "where did that easterly come from" posts soon to restore some faith!

Another day of model output and the outlook remains generally the same; a very mobile, Atlantic dominated, Westerly regime pretty much nailed on for the next few weeks it seems. There is a definite move today away from a sustained block of some kind forming near our shores mid-month.

It all sounds bleak for coldies other than it does look like a colder form of zonality may become more profound as the month progresses. In the near future though, it looks like a case of battening down the hatches and getting the rain Mac on.

For the odd few still left here this evening, ready to lock up and put the cat out, have a look at the end of the GFS 18Z control run.

Hope springs eternal . . .

The GFS 18z op run looked good last night, pity we can't say the same about tonight's run!

Following a shift toward the ECM pattern despite still having the midweek low much further NW, there's a number of snow events on offer from the GFSP 18z, albeit favouring more northern/eastern areas, often marginal, and still well outside the reliable.

The real point is, the background trend for amplification is consistently there on the GFSP runs and coming into view on the ECM runs as well. That's what really counts here - not establishing a block of some kind mid-month, which has looked too early based on teleconnections (MJO etc.) as I summarised (well, partially, at least) earlier.

The way this usually plays out is ridges being able to reach higher latitudes before being toppled, this allowing for transport of relatively warm air to the polar regions, potentially leading to some residual pockets of higher heights but more importantly disrupting the Atlantic jet with a sliding motion to low pressure becoming favoured over the usual west to east zonal motion. This brings with it the chance of snow events as seen on the 18z GFSP op run. It's not a 'very mobile' pattern, in fact the jet looks quite weak at times.

We see the start of this days 9-10 on the ECM run (Atlantic trough S. of Greenland has the classic disrupted jet signature - an elongation of the low heights SE developing), and plenty of it on the past few GFSP runs. We've even seen the amplification increasingly slightly further late in the runs, again tying in with MJO signals.

I know the old GFS isn't showing it very well, but since when did we take it's lower-res output all that seriously? I think there lies a battle between the Pacific (MJO) signals and it's tendency to want to power the jet NE.

Sorry to say this but I think there are too many posts not seeing the wood for the trees when interpreting the output.

The usual caveats do of course apply - the MJO might not behave as per the current professional/expert consensus, in which case the signs of jet disruption and so on in the ECM/GFSP output could well be dropped in favour of something else.

I can only work with what I can see at this moment in time - here's hoping the MJO really does give us a helping hand this time around. 

Great 00z GFS run this morning not deep cold but a back door easterly sets up and the lows keep sinking south would be qite a snowy run for alot of people. FI though but it is creeping in to the hi res,

The Ensembles are pretty good this morning either a slight move away from milder options too. 

The OP run shows the zonal pattern to be a touch cooler, but I wouldn't say it is 'great'. It's another run showing a disturbed, variable pattern but certainly no 'cold' weather or HLB to speak of.

Not a shift to cold but a slight move away from the milder options as you say. A decent cluster of uppers around -5C from about 17th. The trend is towards slowing the jet stream and sending lows further South as ECM is showing towards the end.

Plenty of interesting stuff to come first though with very nasty conditions for the North early tomorrow. The low Saturday morning appears to be slightly further North so Shetland is in the firing line. The middle of next week is still looking like it could be rough for a larger swathe of the UK. One to watch.

I was depressed when I saw on the news this morning that the USA is back in the freezer - shades of last winter which I hoped never to see repeated in my lifetime. However, there appears to be more optimism in this thread this morning than for a while, given the latest runs, so who knows? Maybe we will get some snow events after all, even though the prospects of a decent and prolonged cold spell are off the agenda for the time being.

ECM 240 What a waste of a beautifully formed channel low

Maybe not not great in terms of what we have experienced since 09 however pre 09/10 we would have taken the outlook, and with the -5 --8 isotherm over the country wintriness wouldn't be too far away.

Wouldn't take much for some real cold to get in the mix 

My Gut Feeling for GFS and UKMO today has'nt been anymore been more Frankly Severe and Cold with than what I have seen or said Before: 

They both often Stormy and Cold with shorter less cold interludes, don't be taken unguarded you should get Cold and Wintry Weather as well as Winds at around 80-100 in Scotland N Ireland and also 50 to upto 70 mph in Central areas.  Looks set to last upto 12 days.

please, please, please can someone explain in simple terms what the MJO is, during 15 years of TWO I have heard if it before, who invented it?

I'm not disagreeing Dean, but uppers of even -7 in a rPM airstream do didly squat for most away from high ground. The lower layer mixing and very marginal dps almost always turn things the wrong side of marginal.

The headlines for the next two weeks will be the wind strength and how high we can get the temps - maybe a 15 easily possible in Humber area on Sat with the fohn effect . Snow will I fear not feature, unless your going skiing.

Spot on Michael

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY JANUARY 8TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY JANUARY 9TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A vigorous and rapidly deepening depression will cross East to the North of Scotland tonight and tomorrow sweeping troughs rapidly East across the UK through the period in severe gale force SW or Westerly winds.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable and often windy or even stormy and sometimes mild with rain at times. Possibly somewhat colder and drier at times later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a very strong Jet Stream being maintained across the UK or just to the North in the short to mid term before it steadily weakens later as the result of a weakening vortex to the North of the UK.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational continues to look very unsettled over the next few weeks as a repeated series of Low pressure areas move East to the North of Scotland each bringing their own variety of strong winds and rain and colder showery conditions behind. Gales and severe gales will be commonplace across the UK. Later in the period Low pressure areas divert on a more SE course across the UK and the North Sea delivering further spells of wind and rain but often cold weather too with more in the way of snow over the hills at times even in the South.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is broadly singing from the same hymn sheet as it's operational version with deep Low pressure areas to the North of the UK continuing to be reponsible for sustained spells of wind and rain in relatively mild air and colder and more showery interludes too at times. It too suggests that a build of pressure over the Atlantic at times in Week 2 could lead to more potent Northerly winds later with snow showers sweeping South across the UK at times.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is also united with it's partners in maintaining the wet and windy weather across the UK for a good week to 10 days yet before it too indicates that the cold air bottled to the North of the UK for much of the time pulls further South down across the nation as pressure gains more momentum in wanting to rise across the Atantic Ocean through the second week.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 4 way split in outlook in two weeks time mostly ranging within small differences synoptially which involve the fact on whether we fall under rather chilly NW winds and Low pressure to the NE and High to the SW or High close to the South with Westerly winds and occasional rain across the UK. There is still no definitive dip into anything particularly wintry and pattern shifting on offer this morning.

UKMO UKMO continues to project a very disturbed spell of weather next week as a broad and very strong Westerly wind continues to drive powerful depressions across the Atlantic and send them to the North of the UK sweeping active troughs East across the UK.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a very fats changing and active Atlantic flow as deep depressions cross quickly East between Scotland and Iceland with all areas seeing broad mild sectors with rain at times heaviest on Northern and Western hills  mixed with colder polar maritime Westerly winds, equally strong with showers, wintry on hills across the North.

GEM GEM today only shows token differences in day to day handling of the otherwise well worn track of deep Low pressures to the North of the UK delivering spells of rain and strong winds with sunshine and showers and cooler temperatures. One of those token differences is in it's desire to raise pressure from the South later in the run rather more at times and together with a weaker Jet flow rainfall and wind strengths could lessen with time.

NAVGEM NAVGEM reflects no end to the Westerly flow either with often mild, wet and very windy conditions holding sway over the UK with short and colder periods with showers in between with little change in overall synoptics shown one week from now.

ECM ECM this morning shows very disturbed weather over the next week looking much like UKMO in it's output this morning. In it's later stages the Jet flow appears to buckle North over the Atlantic which allows an injection of colder air to sink further South and together with Low pressure over or near Southern Britain later we could be talking about rain and snow mix in the continued unsetled pattern with some interest at least of wintry precipiation over the hills of the South too at times possible by 10 days.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a much weaker pressure pattern in 10 Days time though still with a bias towards Low pressure lying to the North somewhere and High to the South. It looks like colder NW winds are a strong possibility with more in the way of  sunshine and wintry shower mix brought about by a weaker Jet flow pattern with a ridging North of High pressure possible later in the period,  positioning tbc.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains quite loose but there is sufficient evidence to mention that the shift of emphasis towards something rather colder is shown with time as we move through the second half of the period.

MY THOUGHTS This morning's outputs suggests the Atlantic bandwagon still has a lot of fuel in it's engine this morning as over the next week or so all output suggests that there will be further frequent spells of very strong winds and heavy rain at times mixed in with showery and colder interludes all fuelled by a stronger than average Jet flow aligned in a position to steer depression just to the North of the UK and keeping the UK open to the full impact from active Atlantic fronts sweeping quickly East in the flow. Things then get a little more interesting as we move towards the end of next week and into the following one as there is a lot of support that hints of a weakening Jet Stream which could make a buckling of the flow North over the Atlantic more likely which would send colder air further SE across the UK and NW Europe later with depressions steered on a more SE route. This sort of scenario has all the hallmarks of 'toppler' territory as each cold injection is cut off by milder air riding in over an Atlantic ridge across the UK but it is a step forward from some of the benign output we have seen of late and could mark the start of a change out of this prolonged and Winter killing pattern we have endured for so long of late. I'm very mindful though this is well out in la la land still and needs to be built upon across the models and ensembles within the next few days worth of runs and it could well be yet another red herring but we have to start somewhere and within this morning's output this offers our best hope of anything colder anytime soon albeit hardly likely to be the precursor to a major cold spell on it's own with a lot of shuffling around of major synoptic driving forces to bring things any more favourable than what's shown within the latter charts this morning.