Having looked at the 0z set and now the 12z ensembles and operationals  I conclude the outlook remains ostensibly zonal with only the possibility of ridging at times to bring any relief to a changeable and rather wet and windy pattern. The ECM 240 operational charts, although deeply FI, continue to be interesting in terms of the clean zonality and lack of northern blocking. I'm fairly confident that things will be quite different towards the end of this month but that is my speculation and until then it'll be standard winter fare  

LOL

You're sounding like someone from NW

Happy New Year BTW mate

Apart from some nice looking strat charts, the output remains crap 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014123118/gfsnh-0-264.png?18

Yep, next cold spell starts Jan 16th. Hopefully!

2 weeks of crap to get through first

Happy New Year!

The tiniest hint of something interesting, need to watch this friction against scandi-siberia. The trends are good, but nothing to get excited about yet.

Have thoroughly enjoyed reading all of your posts through this last year.  Honestly we are so lucky to have so much information at our disposal,  i remember the days back in the late 50s and 60s when 3 days was bordering on F! and that was as far as I could see model wise other than on Sundays for the farming forecast. May be there was more surprises then because of this.  Even in January 1979 I recall the spell of less cold around the 12th suddenly plunging into the cold snowy spell of mid month without much notice.  Anyway I would not wish for it to be any different now........ keep up the good work, admin, mods and posters, I do post occasionally but usually leave the ranting and fretting to you lot!

Joking aside this is a great forum and despite my many years of interest in the weather I go on learning from you guys   Happy New Year to you all!

Changes afoot in GFS deepest FI on the 00z 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY JANUARY 1ST 2015.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY JANUARY 2ND 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild and moist SW flow covers the UK with a cold front moving SE across all areas todayand tonight leaving a ridge of High pressure crossing over from the West tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable and sometimes mild with rain at times and strong winds too. Perhaps becoming quite stormy later and rather colder at times, especially in the North.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST(18z) The Jet Stream Forecast shows little change from that of recent output, remaining flowing in a relatively flat pattern West to East across the UK or close to the South between Low pressure to the North and NW and High pressure in a belt from Southern Europe and the Azores.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a prolonged zonal spell of weather coming up with just brief chillier and drier spells in a NW flow alternating with much longer periods of relatively mild but very windy and potentially stormy weather at times later before the risk of something rather colder develops from the North as pressure builds North through the Atlantic turning winds towards the North winth wintry showers and night frosts for all likely by the end of the run.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is very similar to the operational this morning with the emphasis on the wettest and windiest conditions affecting the North primarily with some drier and mild interludes across the South before all areas come under attack from a full blooded and powerful Westerly flow later with gales and heavy rain frequently for all. The parallel run makes less of the risk of colder weather at the end of the run maintaining milder West or SW winds, not quite as strong with further rain at times for all.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run maintains Westerly winds throughout it's duration this morning, often mild and sometimes strong with rain at times. Some drier weather is likely across the South as High pressure is never far away to the South early on. Later in the run little overall change is shown with strong Westerly winds with rain and showers the order of most days with some chillier weather in the North between rainbands offering showers a chance to turn wintry over the hills albeit briefly before the next rainband speeds in from the West.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles show strong support for a Westerly flow to dominate the UK through the period. With Low pressure biased to lie to the North and High near the Azores and Southern Europe Westerly winds, strong at times will follow their normal characteristics of spells of wind and rain for all with slightly colder and more showery interludes in between, these most prolific across the North and later in the period while the heaviest rain occurs across the North and West also principally at first while all areas are at risk of this later.

UKMO UKMO shows a typical Westerly flow across the UK through the coming 6 days. Having said that the most influence from this will be felt across the North and West with some longer drier spells across the South and East close to High pressure to the South and SE. While temperatures hold up reasonably well in the cloudier wetter periods some colder phases with patchy frost and wintry showers over Northern hills remain feasible.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the current trough clearing SE tomorrow followed by a more active set of fronts and depression over Saturday and into Sunday move East over England before a ridge and subsequent broad mild sector brings a return to mild and damp weather across the UK early next week.

GEM GEM today shows a sustained period of strong Westerly winds with gales possible in all areas especially later. Through the first half of the run the most unsettled weather will be across the North and West with the South and East seeing less in the way of rain but later as winds tilt from SW to more of a NW component all areas are liable to gales and heavy rain at times mixed with colder and more showery periods when wintry showers will fall over Northern hills in particular.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a Westerly flow dominant across the UK over the next week or so. Some rain at times is likely for all but with some reasonably long drier spells across the South when some frost could develop if skies clear at night. Howver, by next weekend wet and windy conditions in a strong Westerly flow for all look likely.

ECM ECM this morning continues to promote Westerly winds across the UK. In the South winds will often be slacker with benign conditions for periods while the North sees the windiest and wettest conditions. Later in the run this model too strengthens the Westerly gradient across the UK for all parts delivering spells of heavy rain and gales and also bringing interludes of colder, brighter weather with squally wintry showers to all areas at times late in the period.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows Low pressure to the North and High to the South the most likely scenario at Day 10. However, there is a desire to shunt this further East bringing increased influences from colder polar maritime interventions across the UK under a WNW flow with wintry showers mixed in with rainbands.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains largely unchanged though a trend towards much deeper unsettled weather is likely with time with Westerly gales widely and some more pronounced colder interludes between the mild rainy ones for all areas by mid month.

MY THOUGHTS There remains little desire from the models this morning to break the UK out of a predominantly Westerly flow of winds over the next couple of weeks. There are slow trends which promote some small differences in distribution of weather types across the UK through the period. In the first instance pressure never falls that low across the South with slacker winds allowing less rainfall than further North and behind any cold fronts some colder nights could allow some night frosts briefly. Then as the run period elapses all models indicate the trend towards more deeply unsettled weather for all areas with potential gale or even storm force wind risk in places and spells of heavy rain rushing West to East across the UK in the flow. This also means that behind each cold front then deeper colder polar maritime air will sweep through at times and bring a heady mix of sunshine and heavy, squally wintry showers before the next milder surge pushes in. This fast paced pattern remains in place until mid month at least. If i was to be picky there are some signs of a desire to rise pressure towards the Atlantic and maybe Greenland around mid month lifting the peristent vortex out of there and as the pattern drifts East there is the potential for a chance of something more akin to the GFS operational developing towards mid month which could give the UK a renewed route to colder conditions later in the month. There is however, little concrete evidence that this will be a given yet and while possible in future runs there is no cross model support for this scenario to be anything other than a chance at the moment. However, we will break out of this pattern sooner or later and as for the period of Winter thus far I still feel that our best chance of snow and ice is from the North rather than East with a more pronounced risk of a Scandi High late in the Winter and towards Spring when the seasonal zonal flow from the West traditionally fades somewhat. I will conclude though this is not a forecast and just a gut feeling that is what is most likely and based upon past experiences of Winter in the UK of which I have had many I'm afraid.

So on that note I wish all of you from my website and the forums to which I post a very happy and prosperous New Year for 2015 and thanks for all the support you give me with these reports through the year.

Thank you, Martin, for all your contributions on here over the last year, and your continued work. 

Unsurprisingly, I suppose, there is no change this morning. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010100/ECH1-120.GIF?01-12

ECM, NAVGEM and GFSP come close to building a ridge to Scandi before it turns very violent

The models seem to be firming up for the first half of January. Beyond a couple of weeks things remain uncertain as usual. Interesting that the Met have removed the reference to colder conditions in their extended forecast this morning. Must be because of the SSW. 

Last bit of straw clutching from me - perturbation 18, is a small chance of an alternative if the pv is smashed as we keep getting told it will be

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010100/gens-18-1-180.png

If you want to be objective about things it would be worth noting that many charts are showing a set up which wouldn't have looked out of place in the long run of mild winters during the 90s and 00s. If that is to be the outcome my personal hope is we'll have one of those hot summers again. 

yes, January 1979, it's still me best ever month weatherwise and to think the MetO predicted a mild one on the 31st December when the Country was in the grip of a proper deep freeze.

repeated heavy snowfalls some unexpected characterised the whole month and you were very unlucky to miss out, interestingly the snow came from every direction apart from the south so everyone got a look in.

Them were the days it's just a shame the internet and TWO wasn't around to share it with.

andy