Control is the trend setter

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015020612/gensnh-0-1-324.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015020612/gensnh-0-1-336.png

Ideal

Bitter

charts above to far out in FI look good tho.

There are quite a few that take a drop around the 18th, although not to the extent of the control...!

The ensembles have shown the same pattern for a week now. Most mild or normal, then a handful of ridiculous ones getting on for -15 or indeed below. If this keeps happening we will eventually 'select' one of them!

looking dry till end of next week at least, is this the calm before the storm so to speak, the change from winter to spring may or could be a mess one

And as Mr Gadd is from Banbury......................not a wise move

Chilly theme to last a while

More of these bloody things. Its getting ridiculous now.

i think TWO weather outlook is the best, !!!!!!!!!!!!!!   no more to report than HP pressure dominating

This is utterly absurd, for a week now I've seen all these sub -10ers just appearing like a persistent carbuncles on otherwise smooth skin.  I've even seen the odd -18er. And still they come. Look at this one:

That implies a really impressive block - Looking like February 1895 there.

ECM still out of sync with the American models. GFS has been more consistent than ECM around the 6-7 day mark IMHO. ECM ENS yesterday (12z) clearly show the op was an outlier and the op is again all over the place. Binned.

There is hint of something colder on the cards after mid month

All very brief , we end up back where we started

Has the heavy snow set in yet Mike

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure to the West of Ireland will persists extending a ridge east across England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of benign and quiet weather is expected across the UK with light winds and plenty of cloud but some sunshine or clear spells with some frosts at night especially in the South. Daytime temperatures close to average. Perhaps a short period of less settled weather next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow now climbing North of the UK and being maintained there for most of the period though becoming more undulating later as weak Low pressure areas interact with it later on around the UK.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today maintains it's High pressure based them with a slow relaxation of the centre to the SE next week before at mid run it reforms across the UK . Through week 2 the pattern remains quite slow changing with more intervention at times from Atlantic Low pressure especially towards the North and East as a couple of cold plunges of Northerly winds flirt with these areas at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run looks broadly similar to the operational with any intervention from the Atlantic brief and flirting in Week 2 with High pressure quickly making a return soon afterwards, centreing across Southern Britain.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show an array of options all basing their predictions upon High pressure lying to the South or SW of the UK with NW or West winds. If the High remains close as 40% of members do then it will be mainly dry but there is some shift of emphasis towards a more unsettled theme from the West or NW by the end of the run.

GFS Clusters

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure drifting slowly East across the UK next week and away slowly to the East. By the end of the run at Day 6 a deepening Low pressure area over the North Atlantic shows signs of bringing a more unsettled and windier spell by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure slowly shifting East across the UK and on into Europe leaving slack winds from the South or SE over the UK by the middle of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM shows the UK based High slipping away into Europe through next week and followed by a strengthening West to NW flow as Low pressure develops to the North. The end of the run in 10 days time shows the UK bathed in a strong Westerly flow between High pressure to the South and Low to the North with troughs delivering rain at times to Northern areas in particular.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure slipping away East through next week with benign conditions over the UK maintained as a result. A brief more changeable period is shown towards the end of the period as Low pressure to the North throws a trough East over the UK with some rain for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM continues to show High pressure moving away East next week as an active trough crosses the UK later in the working week. Pressure becomes High again close to the SW at the end of the run with a strong Westerly flow and occasional rain likely then over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates that High pressure will most likely lie to the South of the UK late next week and beyond. Conditions will be fairly typical of a Westerly flow over the UK in that the South will see the best of the dry and fine weather while the North will be more at risk of troughs from the Atlantic delivering rain at times in a stiffer Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The only notable trend shift this morning revolves around the extent of an interruption to the fine weather late next week as it looks increasingly likely that a trough or Low pressure will move east across the UK towards next weekend.

MY THOUGHTS Only small scale changes to report within the outputs this morning with High pressure continuing for the most part to drive the weather across the UK. In the 4-6 day term only small changes day to day are expected at the surface all centreing on amounts of cloud determining what levels of bright sunny spells we will get by day and clear spells with resultant frost by night. What is certain that there will be very little rainfall as pressure remains very High until at least later next week when models seem to be firming up on something of a hiatus in the fine weather as an active trough crosses West to East over the UK giving rise to a spell of windier and wetter conditions. However, it looks unlikely to last long as those models that show it go on to bring High pressure back close to the South of the UK and bring back a lot of fine weather by the end of next weekend. It then looks like something of a North/South split might develop with stronger Westerly winds over Northern areas perhaps bringing more changeable weather there while the South maintains fine if rather cloudy skies. Temperatures overall look like being close to average for many but perhaps a little below in the South under any prolonged clearer conditions however having said that there is little sign of anything significantly cold on the horizon with the Jet Stream programmed to remain near to the north of the UK on the Northern flank of high pressure longer term and any cold restricted to any clear frosty skies by night tempering the diurnal warming of daytime temperature values.

Issued at 08:30 Saturday February 7th 2015

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

Nothing of any interest today. A step backwards from last night. I guess its another period of patience required to see if the cold March predictions can come true

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2015020706/navgem-0-144.png?07-11

NAVGEM goes with the trough but GFS still not having any of it

Hi Marcus - yes, snowing heavily, windy, drifting = all cool

I am finding it difficult to forecast for my own region for the week ahead. The models are all showing different paths of lows near Norway and with the exact location of the UK High unlikely to be pinned down, a distance of 50-150 miles is all it takes to have huge impacts for my area. Keep thinking each run will add clarity but it actually increases the uncertainty