ECM is settled but chilly this morning. Not great could be better looks to me as the first half of June could be at least 1c below average cet.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 3RD 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening Westerly airflow is blowing across the UK with pressure rising from the South over the next 24-48hrs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to blow across Northern Britain from the West and will do so for another three or four days before migrating North to Iceland where it remains for some while before moving back South over the British Isles late in the period as pressure falls.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure moving NE close to the SE of the UK with a brief flirtation with very warm and humid air before low pressure enar NW Scotland brings cooler and fresher air across all areas in time for the weekend. High pressure is then shown to build and anchor close to NW Britain from early next week with fine and dry weather shown for all with a stiff East wind over Southern England and warm temeratures in the West and NW. Later in the run pressure falls from the North for a time allowing some showers in the North as the High recedes away SW temporarily before rebuilding at the end of the run with renewed fine weather spreading back for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is broadly similar to the above with a large High settling to the West and NW of the UK with fine and settled weather for many. A cool breeze could temper temperatures in the East with the warmest conditions towards the West and NW and a few thundery showers could affect the South and SE at times perhaps more extensively for a time mid period before High pressure re-establishes strongly again just to the west of the UK by the end of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the main theme remaining a High pressure based one in two weeks time with the positioning of it likely to lie close to the West or SW of the UK with a ridge across the UK with fine and bright weather as a result.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows humid air being swept away East at the weekend as High pressure builds strongly across the North of the UK later in the weekend with a NE or East flow setting up across the far South delivering fine and sunny conditions with the warmest weather likely to develop across the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show another windy and wet period for the NW over the end of the week while the SE see a humid puddle of air drift across with some thundery showers possible. Pressure is then shown to rise frome the SW and West of Britain over the Weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today follows the theme of the aforementioned models in building pressure behind a front crossing East on Friday taking away warm and humid air to the East and replacing it with clear and fresh air over the weekend with a cool NE breeze over the South later and fine and sunny weather for many with the warmest weather likely in the West and NW near the centre of the High pressure area by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is in unison with other output too as it builds pressure across the UK over the weekend with fine and settled conditions developing after a cool and breezy few days across the North and the odd thundery shower towards the SE on Friday. Next week then looks fine and warm with sunny spells and a cooling breeze from the east or NE across the far South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows High pressure building too just to the West of the UK next week with fine and warm weather for many as a ridge lies across Northern Britain. Later in the week it slips South and declines as pressure steadily falls across the British Isles from the North with some rain or showers reaching the North towards next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a ridge across the UK with fine and settled weather still as a result. Pressure is a little lower over Europe suggesting that there could be a thundery shower or two at times creeping North or NW across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for High pressure to develop close to NW Britain remains but with less chance of it migrating to the NE this morning longer term.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 85.8 over UKMO's 81.6 pts with GFS at 81.6. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.1 over 44.2. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.9 pts to 23.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There is strong support again this morning for High pressure to become the dominant player in the UK weather over the next two weeks once we clear the messy synoptics of the next few days which offer some humid and potentially thundery conditions for the SE for a time Friday and some cooler and windier conditions elsewhere with some rain in the NW. A surge of cooler and fresher air then reaches all of the UK on Saturday which then warms steadily as High pressure builds from the west and settles close to the west and NW of the UK next week. If I was to be picky I would suggest the HIgh is not best placed to bring particularly warm temperatures to some parts of the UK with the flow from the North over the East pegging temperatures back here somewhat and also  with the threat of a fresh East or NE breeze across the South too it may feel somewhat cool here too if cloud amounts are a feature. In addition there is always a threat of the odd thundery shower moving North or NW from Continental Europe over the South though this doesn't look a widespread threat between the outputs this morning. All this taken into consideration it may well end up that the North and West of the UK become quite warm and sunny with the Highlands of Scotland often seeing the best weather and highest temperatures in these type of synoptic setups. Looking further forward High pressure is shown to retrogress somewhat later with less chance of it shown this morning to drift to the East. Instead it looks like it could pull back SW or West to allow some cooler and more showery conditions to develop from the North at least temporarily, this shown from both GFS and ECM this morning. So all in all it looks like that real heat and humidity will remain on hold which may be a disappointment to some that like that sort of weather after what charts were showing some days back but on the plus side a lot of dry and fine weather is looking likely for most of the UK for some time at least with some warmth for all especially in the West and NW which will be a marked change for those areas that have most been affected by the incessant coolness of Atlantic cool West and NW winds of late.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 4th 2015

So west is best... for a while...Thank you Martin...

The ECM means are much warmer than the Op which is very good news. Mid twenties if it comes off for the South. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

Can't understand the whinging from anyone south of the Midlands. 

[quote=Matty H;698047]

I am going to Fleetwood, from Chelmsford, this weekend so not happy with what the models are suggesting

Well I hadn't looked at the models for two or three days and I thought there was meant to be a modest heatwave of sorts coming over the weekend. What happened to that?!

From what I can gather the low pressure system which gave us the gales yesterday and the day before was far more intense than expected.

The warm plum was given a hefty push out of the way by the jet stream - typical really just typical.

I was hoping for a nice settle down and warm settled spell.

Anyway enough of my OT rant :-)

That's what you'll get! 

I agree with the rest of your post - bloody jet stream! 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

I think there will be a lot of `heatwaves` not materialising this summer and all massively downgraded by the models as this one.

The promise of jam tomorrow from the models, very much as happened last winter,never to fully materialise of course. Imo most places won`t see a 25c this summer let alone 30c.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif

Seriously?! I need to stop checking the output daily at the moment, it's all over the show! 

Just looked at the gfs 500mb flow charts and it does look fairly cool for the next two weeks although not much rain in the southern half of the country so not too bad. Plenty of time for heatwaves if that is your thing.

Basically the schoolboy error was in your first few words 

I'm typing this from Preston. Absolutely what a dump. I'm so glad I live in the south.  

That's enthusiasm for you! Checking the output daily outside the silly season.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 4TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure from a European anticyclone covers the UK today followed by a trough of Low pressure moving East across the UK tonight and tomorrow..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions for a time especially in the West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show it blowing across the UK pushing a ridge of High pressure away East over Europe while a new ridge moves in from the West later as the flow weakens and eventually settles much more towards a point North of the UK before returning South and strengthening again at the very end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure gradually becoming established to the West of the UK pushing a ridge across Southern Britain early next week and a NW flow across the North. Then as the ridge in the South declines a little a new ridge from the same High covers the North and a NE flow develops across the South which then maintains itself until late in the run when pressure finally falls from the North and the dry and fine weather with locally warm conditions become replaced by cloud, rain and showers later from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run features the same synoptic pattern through the first week with a lot of fine and pleasant early Summer weather for many under a ridge of High pressure based just West of the UK. However, the High declines quicker on this run in the wake of cool and unstable North or NW winds blowing down across the UK in the second week with rain and showers at times.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today maintain the theme of High pressure likely to be lying out to the SW of the UK two weeks from now with varying degrees of influence between members ranging from fine and dry weather under average temperatures to unsettled weather from Low pressure too close to the North to eliminate the threat of rain to many.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows cool, fresh and settled conditions across the UK at the start of next week as a large High lies parked to the West with a ridge from it lying across the heart of the UK. Pleasantly warm in the sunshine look the order of conditions but night's look like being cool and a naggingly cool NE breeze looks like affecting the South early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror thhe raw data package this morning quite well with High pressure just to the West of the UK becoming the main influence for the UK next week

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows persistent High pressure centred just to the west of the Uk for a week or so once formed at this coming weekend. Ill positioned for the best of conditions it should still provide plenty of dry and bright weather with variable cloud cover but chilly nights where skies clear under a Northerly drift. Late in the run the ridge collapses somewhat with the increased risk of some showers by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks set fair next week as High pressure establishes across Ireland or just to the West over the weekend and persists then throughout next week. A ridge from it then covers the UK with fine and dry weather under variable cloud cover with the best temperatures likely towards shelter to the light North or NE flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too shows High pressure well in control of the UK weather next week, centred foremostly to the West of the UK with a strong ridge across our Islands ensuring fine, dry and pleasantly warm weather away from any variable and sometimes large cloud patches and any breeze blowing from the North or NE, this principally across the South early next week. The end of the run suggests something of a collapse in pressure which in many respects mirrors last night's 10 day mean chart showing slack relatively High pressure still across the UK but with the risk of some showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night maintains something resembling a ridge towards the UK from High pressure to the SW in 10 days time but with an upper air pressure weakness over NW Europe one should cater for the chance of showers here and there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is very much a High pressure based one this morning lasting a week or so with a centre most likely just to the West of the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS with 85.6 over GFS's's 81.7 pts with UKMO at 81.3. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 51.9 over 44.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.2 pts to 22.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS It is almost certain now that the UK will become affected by a large High pressure area centred just to the West of the UK through next week and probably beyond. Before we get there a somewhat messy weekend picture of humid air exiting the SE with thundery showers and a cold front clearing through Britain bringing cooler and fresher conditions with a few showers in the North has to be got through before all areas look like settling into many days of broken cloud and sunny spells. Temperatures should be average or somewhat above by day given any shelter with the prohibitive hot weather factor being the persistence of a drift of wind from the North or NE keeping exposed parts naggingly cool. Cloud amounts could be an issue by day too with convective cloud formation in the morning's flattening out to give some rather cloudy afternoons for some and while this largely clears overnight some cool nights can be expected too especially where winds fall light. However, having highlighted some negativity the upside is that all areas look like staying dry for a week or so at least with just the risk of a few showers as the ridge shows signs of weakening somewhat later in the period. The threat of more widespread thundery showers from continental Europe has receded somewhat for now but not completely eliminated and developments to the South will have to be watched later next week. So all in all though things would of been better with the High positioned further East over or to the East of the UK we have to make do with it where it's programmed to be and for many in the West and SW where the highest temperatures are likely next week few complaints should be heard from there and for all areas next week's weather going on this morning's output continues to show a marked improvement over what many of us have seen of late.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 4th 2015