Somethings definitely stirring in deepest FI with the Euroslug banished to some far off flung place. The question is what and is the GFS over amplifying the upstream pattern with that troughing. One's things for sure at least we have something exciting to view now.

We do but could well be gone tomorrow, best leg it before Neil gets hold of me

I am enjoying checking up on this live chart as it is constantly bringing the temperature down in FI and we now even have 2 points on Snow Row!!

Someone call? 😎

I actually don't mind the FI posting Marcus - it's all part of the fun at this time of year. I just hope that some common sense prevails so as not to spoil the party.

Now dare I say that's four runs showing a much more mobile westerly theme now - just saying 🙄

GFS wanting to bring about HLB to the NW in its lower-res output (beyond day 10), ECM preferring to tease one to our NE 9-10 days from now.

This seems all too familiar doesn't it? It seems to be down to there being a signal for a brief surge in the Atlantic westerlies, which GFS makes more of than ECM, followed by a more amplified setup returning, at which point it becomes critical just how far east the main Atlantic trough has progressed.

We could end up staying mild and changeable, or becoming wild and wet, or becoming cold with the chance of snow - it's near impossible to call at this time, but if the signal for another round of meandering jet streams and a continued very ragged polar vortex are in the right ballpark, then whatever we do get seems likely to stick around for a bit - much like our current setup with the limpet Euro High.

Blimey, it's busy in here isn't it!

As mentioned yesterday, there are some tentative hints from the models of a possible change to something less mild around the middle of November, but that's all they are just now. Some of yesterday's runs in FI showed quite a potent northerly airstream developing for a time in mid-November. Too far ahead to have any confidence in that at all, but if that did happen it would be a huge shock to the system for many after this current mild spell.

On TWO? It's finished and shows a wintry blast with a widespread snow risk mid month.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

So often our winters turn into a battle between ECM and GFS. Well on this occasion, I am banging the drum for GFS.

Come on GFS, kick ECM into touch and show you have the better forecasting power!

I have seen some people comment in here in the past that whatever shortcomings it may have, the GFS can sometimes come up trumps when it comes to being among the first to spot trends. It shall be interesting to see how it handles things over the coming few days.

Cant see any quick change  at the moment imho the slug continues n fact both means in quite good agreement

it was the GFS that came up trumps on the 2009/2010 big freeze, [ MR BRIAN called the big freeze cos of the GFS ] correct me if im wrong but this is what MR BRIAN said on winter prospects thread, so can not rule out the GFS at such an early stage tho its always easy to rule it out as it could be onto something suggesting a cold snap later in November hence why GFS was onto the big freeze in 2009 before any other model.

I wouldn't rule out either evolution at this stage. Based on past experience though you're more likely to see the GFS being dragged towards the ECM solution rather than the other way round. 

One to watch. 

aye - must have been my browser at work.  It was fine on my phone when i checked.  

I had an idea what the 00z runs looked like just from the time/day of the last post in this thread.

Time to pull out Kevin's "Where did that Easterly come from?" thread perhaps?

could be a marginal snow event somewhere around Northern England around the 15th

Cold air to the north and a couple of Potent LPs darting across southern counties.  Could be enough to bring some early Winter cheer to some places.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20151104/06/276/h850t850eu.png

Outlook uninspiring if you want cold despite what is at best extreme speculation in the outer reaches of GFS.

A look at the GEFS ensembles shows the mean running above 0'c 850 hPa which is hardly encouraging.

Unless there is some sensible agreement either in ensemble clustering or cross-model then it remains hopecasting, especially so far out.

FWW, this approach s far worse on social media which is a breeding ground for all sorts of outlandish claims of extreme weather(mostly cold at this time of year)

Just a reminder we are in Autumn

It does seem like the first exciting charts of the season tend to occur around now, and they usually show a northerly plunge (no idea if that's actually correct or not). IIRC they do often come off as well, but rarely last long or pack much of a punch come the time. Anything that delays what feels like an almost inevitable drift towards an organised PV will be a bonus in my book, and besides, tonight's 12Z has put on quite a show which is always a nice thing to see.... however far fetched it may be!

There are a few cold runs in ECM on days 10-15:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

The control run isn't especially cold though, even out to T+360.

(Side note: you can get a free month of Accuweather Pro if you fancy seeing the control run each day - as long as you cancel before the month's up you won't pay a penny.)

It could change by Sunday 15 and Monday the 16 Nov. 2015.

GFS is saying that.

Mild and even a bit warm for Much of SW and West through Central Europe right across to the 15th, Mid Northeast and N Europe and UK will regularly be seeing Areas of Major Low Pressure bringing wet and windy conditions with some very heavy rain plus heavy blustery showers, Mid N and NE Europe will turn colder by the Sunday 8th and Monday 9th, and in Week before Wk. end of 14-15 Nov. West to East from UK to North Europe spells of heavy rain, Cold air to the North in Scotland North Ireland and Norway NE Europe and especially North Atlantic and over Svalbard and the Sea West NW and N to NE off UK as well.

Wales and North and NW England WS and SW & NW Scotland Central plus N Ireland will be seeing some hill sleet and hail, chilly days with average November maximums, chilly nights with not much frost.

By Sun- Mon. Nov. 15-16 UK and North NW and W Europe could turn colder with more chance of colder day and night temps. With hill sleet and snow - rain at below 500 metresASL Southern UK, but in Western and Northern UK they could be wintry rain sleet and snow above about 250 m ASL. UKMO to T144 looks interesting, and GFS up to 15-16 Nov- at that time shows High Pressure to our West NW and SW- a wide cold high. pressure linked to Greenland High.

A Deepening NW Mid West N Atlantic Low also shows up.  Large PV Low over UK and our North, East SE off Iceland and over UK and Norwegian Sea N Sea, bringing Cold weather down south across US...NWterly to Northerly airflow bring temps low enough for chance of sleet and snow showers- Polar VortexLow ready possible now at FI land still very uncertain- but a clear model agreement as far as GFS FI concerned.