It's utterly crazy. If the warming trend of the last couple of decades continues I expect to be cutting my lawn on Xmas day before my innings is over. 

Roughly, take the thickness on the 500 hPa chart, and for each 5 mb of pressure above 1000 mb subtract 4 dam of thickness, or for each 5 mb of pressure under 1000 mb add 4 dam of thickness.

E.g. 536 dam on the 500 hPa chart with 1010 mb of pressure corresponds to the magic 528 dam line on the 850 hPa chart.

Then simply sit back and wait for someone to come on and explain why it still won't snow.

Welcome to the silly season 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/11/16/basis06/ukuk/rart/15112206_1606.gif

[quote=Jonesy;734297]

Welcome to the silly season 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/11/16/basis06/ukuk/rart/15112206_1606.gif

Well nothing here then.

The latest GEM prolongs the colder air over us, and also develops a Scandi High at the end.

Interesting chart, shame it's the GEM as it always overdoes the eye candy!  Still, worth looking at ECM when it comes out for any hints of that scenario.

You'd hope that from THAT position, the High would ridge to Greenland, forcing the jet stream down over northern France and opening the door properly from the East.

GFS 12z fi is often chilly with wintry opportunities for the north especially.

A seasonal end to November and possibly a cold start to December.

Just t120 away

very chilly chart for e/a  and s/e Snow in the wind little doubt

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Get in!!

Gulp colder air swings back west  God that would be good I need a tablet at the sight of it

You mean you've never done that yet Brian

20 years ago, in Kent, I cut my lawn on New year's Day, nto once but in two separate years. Do keep up

Back to the weekend. Some impressive accumulations of snow for the higher ground of Scotland by Sunday lunchtime. .

The end of the GFS 12z is a sight to behold for Mon 2nd Dec, I know it's FI and all that but it's showing MINUS 16 for the Scottish Highlands min temperature...!! Is that a normal chart for the average early winter season??? 

Surprised there is not more discussion about the events of tomorrow afternoon / evening. There are not many times in a typical autumn / winter that wind gusts of 60-70mph are forecast inland for southern England. Certainly the train companies are taking it seriously with South West Trains warning of possible disruption for the rest of the week due to wind and other factors. That said the latest BBC forecasts seem out of kilter with the latest models which show the strongest inland winds north of the M4 over the Midlands not the south. So still some uncertainty on the track of the band of strongest winds.

The latest NMM model has the strongest winds over the Midlands.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015111612/nmm_uk1-11-33-1.png?16-18

ARPEGE shows the same thing. Ignore the subsequent charts which are corrupted. The T35 chart is blank and the T36 chart is most certainly not correct. Normal service is resumed at T37. Unfortunately the 35 and 36 charts are the ones we really want to see.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2015111612/arpegeuk-11-34-0.png?16-16

GFS is similar

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/33-289UK.GIF?16-12

EURO4 does not have a gust chart but the mean speed chart also shows the strongest inland winds away from the far south

EURO4

The 12z GFS develops an interesting secondary low on Saturday afternoon which runs down the eastern side of England. This needs watching. No doubt will look different on every run but shows what could happen

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/108-515UK.GIF?16-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/114-515UK.GIF?16-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/120-515UK.GIF?16-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/126-515UK.GIF?16-12

Dew points close to zero at 18z on Saturday as that low reaches Kent

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/126-101UK.GIF?16-12

The precipitation chart shows rain at that time but it will be very marginal

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/126-779UK.GIF?16-12

Some seriously low wind chill readings on Saturday night. Pipe freezing conditions in the north. Ice likely to be a big problem as well given precipitation during Saturday afternoon in many areas. Good thing it is Sunday the next morning not a weekday as travel conditions could be very bad.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/132-290UK.GIF?16-12

-16????

Are you sure.... not on the charts I have seen, colder , yes , but not 'that' cold

Click on the Charts above, select the 12z at 372 hours, and select UK 2m min temp, it gives -16 for Scotland! 

I remember that in the exceptional case of Nov 2010 there were clear signs of northern blocking developing on the model output by this time in the month, but were there any such signs at the same stage in Nov 2009? My recollection of that time is by no means perfect but from what I do remember there weren't many, if indeed any at all.