Certainly up to the 216 mark a better run for us cold fans...................well into FI of course

I'm guilty of that too I'm afraid- not through lack of will. When I try to copy and paste it doesn't seem to work. Is there an easy way to do it using a link?

The focus in the next batch of runs will be on the energy moving in from day 5 and how stoutly it can undercut. The old adage of 'get the cold in first' comes into play because we all know that the models have problems with deep cold pools to the East and the interplay with the western bias. 

It looks odds on that a solid cold pool will be in place in Central Europe from midweek. The way the Atlantic reacts to it is where the possibilities massively diverge. It could go either way, or even result in a classic battleground scenario with all that entails.

As for the 'official' take on it from the MetO, that may not reveal much for a few days yet.

FI is not looking very warm even a snow event or two given a southerly tracking jet and blocking over the Arctic.

Certainly better than the 0z Marcus but you do just get the sense that if it does deliver it might take a while with a few different scenarios being tested and then disgarded before it settles on the final outcome. Yesterday's 18z and this morning's 0z had a cell of high pressure over s/w France stall the progress west of the main High and preventing any undercutting lows propping up the cold and dragging it westwards. Thankfully this is not so prevalent on the 6z which in turn allows the Atlantic lows to undercut the high and at least try to advect things westwards. On the Op the cold is limited to the north of the U.K. But further similar developments on the 12z and 18z could change things for the better (or worse)!😉

PDiddy, my point is that the detail for such a situation could not be known at T168 onwards.. but even if there was the possibility of the sort of battle being shown on the GFS/ECM occuring, they would be mentioning it as a low probability - but they are not even mentioning it.

Can't really grumble Karl , at least we have something interesting to view, and something much chillier at least looks on the cards

Indeed Marcus one of the most pleasing aspects are the jets much better position with heights lower in mainland southern Europe

They have

but the chance of a prolonged cold spell remains low.

As past events have shown, the Met Office text forecasts sometimes don't change until events are almost upon us. Many a time in previous winters they have been playing catch up when the models change fast. 

The Met Office are pretty good but they are not in control of the weather, and they can get caught out just like any of us. They have to be seen to "play safe" so they won't start talking about cold and causing media fuss until they have to. 

Thats how I see it 

Correct Rob, the charts dont follow the Met O update..................................it's the other way around, with a bit of a delay.

I think if we are still seeing this type of battle tomorrow , we could well see them mentioning it

The probability for an easterly has increased a notch again today and is now up to 25% IMO. Its a favourable trend that has been consistent for the last few days now. The models have edged away from the largely unanimous atlantic breakthrough in favour of of a more stubborn and better aligned high pressure cell over Scandinavia. The N-S cold air advection shown in Eastern Europe headed for Greece a few days ago is becoming increasingly aligned more NE-SW edging closer to our shores.

Things are never straightforward..the atlantic is obviously still the form horse with energy piling northwards eventually eroding the block southwards with time but the trend is good.

Even if the models do firm up on undercutting energy we may then have to deal with our old friend the shortwave over the Baltic..historically a frustrating feature that delays or prevents proper cold reaching us.

All in all though its looking pretty damn good. 

They are not mentioning it simply bcause it is a low (but growing) probability. Nothing more nothing less than that. I am sure it has their attention but I would expect it not to be mentioned, even as a risk, for a few days. Unlike us the Met Office cannot discuss every potential cold spell with the general public. Right T the moment they have other more pressing and timeous issues to deal with before they start discussing any risk of cold a week or two out.

None of this, despite your assertions, suggests that the easterly scenarios have no chance of materialising. As long as they are shown in the charts (and increasingly in the ensembles) they must remain a realistic option. The thing is about options is that s any of them could occur. As yet, we do not know which.

Saying something doesn't make it happen.

Highlight link then try control c then into live form page control v.... You do really need links to explain your thoughts

Indeed Steve we have a decent chance

quote=Gusty;746823]

The probability for an easterly has increased a notch again today and is now up to 25% IMO. Its a favourable trend that has been consistent for the last few days now. The models have edged away from the largely unanimous atlantic breakthrough in favour of of a more stubborn and better aligned high pressure cell over Scandinavia. The N-S cold air advection shown in Eastern Europe headed for Greece a few days ago is becoming increasingly aligned more NE-SW edging closer to our shores.

Things are never straightforward..the atlantic is obviously still the form horse with energy piling northwards eventually eroding the block southwards with time but the trend is good.

Even if the models do firm up on undercutting energy we may then have to deal with our old friend the shortwave over the Baltic..historically a frustrating feature that delays or prevents proper cold reaching us.

All in all though its looking pretty damn good.