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Gooner
06 January 2016 20:46:36

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It would be a real kick in the *&%$ if we didnt get wintry weather from this set up

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


western100
06 January 2016 20:47:22


 


Yes but Marcus, don't they get their signals from the models?


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


the Met will never do anything more than sit on the fence given their errors in recent years at going public with predictions 


they will be very easy on the wording


Even if it verifies they would dampen any panic 


 

Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
SJV
06 January 2016 20:48:07


UK 5 days UK 6-30 days
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Monday 11 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 20 Jan 2016:
Monday and Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. There is now an increased signal for a brief much colder spell around the middle of next week with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. Towards the end of next week unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds may become re-established, although there is some uncertainty. Temperatures should return to near normal.


 


One thing I will say is keep your feet firmly on the ground until this changes.................either they are being massively cautious or they are seeing signals that it is really very brief and not hugely cold with , as they say sleet or snow showers.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Hasn't altered much, if at all from yesterday's update.


They're being cautious IMO, and rightly so. We do the excitement, they do the caution 

Gooner
06 January 2016 20:48:14


 


Yes but Marcus, don't they get their signals from the models?


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Yes but see an awful lot more than we do , of course picking up comments from J Hammond are always helpful.


The 21:55 forecast should shed more light, and of course the faxes are excellent for info

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Crepuscular Ray
06 January 2016 20:54:04


I *so* want to jump on the train, but having been through this that many times i'll wait until T+72 when the shortwaves get modelled !


Originally Posted by: JoeShmoe99 


Hi Joe


IF these dream charts materialise we would do very well up here! Will never forget our 14 ins of snow from Dec 2010!!

Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
doctormog
06 January 2016 20:56:27
You could look at it this way. There are three options:
1) The 12z models will be largely accurate
2) There will be a large backtrack on the next day or two leading to little of any of the scenarios shown this evening
3) Somethng in between 1 and 2

We'll soon know which option it will be and there's little point in second guessing. My advice would be to accept that any of these three scenarios are possible so be prepared for them without taking any of them as the most likely or only option. I'm more concerned about the next 36hrs rainfall but if things disappear from the charts there's not much we can do about it anyway. (*checks location of his snow shovel and finds it rusting in the corner*)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
squish
06 January 2016 20:57:38
I'll take the ECM 12z control !!

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Gandalf The White
06 January 2016 20:58:05


 


Yes but see an awful lot more than we do , of course picking up comments from J Hammond are always helpful.


The 21:55 forecast should shed more light, and of course the faxes are excellent for info


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Marcus, in the forecast that you quoted I think the word 'may' in "westerly winds may become re-established" plus the rider that "there is some uncertainty" suggests to me that they're hedging their bets.  The end of next week is days 9-10 on today's 12z runs and the ensemble mean doesn't show rock solid support for the cold to continue.


So, I don't think we can read much into today's update as regards a downgrade on what we're seeing.  Even tonight's BBC longer range view isn't likely to run to next weekend; I'd expect a broadbrush take on the switch to much colder and drier conditions.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
06 January 2016 21:00:16


What, you don't fancy the solitary run that drops to -15c....?  

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Schnow in Peace
06 January 2016 21:00:19

Outstanding output, if this verifies Ricardo Montalban will get his rug blown off. Hope Tattoo has remembered the supergluetongue-out


Not so far off now either!

Whether Idle
06 January 2016 21:00:55

I'm seeing charts that although good, and are eye candy compared to what winter season charts have  preceded them since March 2013, what will need to be factored in are the sea temperatures.  Around the SE coast these stand at around 11c or a good 3-4 c above where they should be following the 2nd mildest November and the mildest December on record.  Should we actually get proper cold uppers (say -10 or below) then windward coasts should be on the safe side, but almost all the output shows uppers in the range -4 to -9.  For many lowland and coastal districts the air simply would not be cold enough.  It will be ok for those at altitude and well inland or in areas in the northern UK with an off shore wind.


There is, to my sceptical eye, a lack of deep cold at present.  The flipside is that should we actually get some deep cold then the convection potential will be extreme and some very localised heavy snowfalls would be possible under those circumstances.  Personally I will be looking for any trends that bring in North Easterlies, the ECM 240 is good but a world away.


Good as the charts are, I am keeping my feet firmly on the ground, though on a personal level I will welcome any weather that stops the flooding and uber-mild damp crappiness we've had to endure.


WI

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Chiltern Blizzard
06 January 2016 21:01:00


UK 5 days UK 6-30 days
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Monday 11 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 20 Jan 2016:
Monday and Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. There is now an increased signal for a brief much colder spell around the middle of next week with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. Towards the end of next week unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds may become re-established, although there is some uncertainty. Temperatures should return to near normal.


 


One thing I will say is keep your feet firmly on the ground until this changes.................either they are being massively cautious or they are seeing signals that it is really very brief and not hugely cold with , as they say sleet or snow showers.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


i wonder what charts they use when compiling these updates... Given the 12z charts have just completed, I doubt it's based on these, but rather an analysis of the 0z which has then been peer reviewed, drafted, re-drafted and approved, then finally sent for publication. The MetO aren't going to be hanging off every model frame, broadcasting their 'thoughts' like we do on here.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
squish
06 January 2016 21:02:42

You could look at it this way. There are three options:
1) The 12z models will be largely accurate
2) There will be a large backtrack on the next day or two leading to little of any of the scenarios shown this evening
3) Somethng in between 1 and 2

We'll soon know which option it will be and there's little point in second guessing. My advice would be to accept that any of these three scenarios are possible so be prepared for them without taking any of them as the most likely or only option. I'm more concerned about the next 36hrs rainfall but if things disappear from the charts there's not much we can do about it anyway. (*checks location of his snow shovel and finds it rusting in the corner*)

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


48hrs ago the em 12z +240 chart was as good as tonights +192, and then it dropped it- only to come back with a vengeance today. Sometimes the operationals paint a rosier picture than the ensembles- and sometimes vice-versa. The general trend looks very promising but the detail will always chop and change a bit. I don't think any of us would have expected such a dramatic change for the better, even just a couple of days ago. Th post xmas cold spell didn't materialise (would have started by now) but actually it has laid the building blocks for what we are about to see unfold.....

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Bertwhistle
06 January 2016 21:04:25

Just noticed 555 users- the record being 984 in Jan 2013. I'm certain the MOD is largely responsible. I wonder why?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
IanT
  • IanT
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2016 21:05:42


...the ECM 240 is good but a world away.


Good as the charts are, I am keeping my feet firmly on the ground, though on a personal level I will welcome any weather that stops the flooding and uber-mild damp crappiness we've had to endure.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


100% agreed.

Woking, Surrey. 40m asl.
Gooner
06 January 2016 21:06:00


 


i wonder what charts they use when compiling these updates... Given the 12z charts have just completed, I doubt it's based on these, but rather an analysis of the 0z which has then been peer reviewed, drafted, re-drafted and approved, then finally sent for publication. The MetO aren't going to be hanging off every model frame, broadcasting their 'thoughts' like we do on here.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Agreed but to use the comments "There is now an increased signal for a brief " would say they are seeing a mixed signal........even without my rose tinted glasses , it doesnt look brief . I always prefer the fax charts when we start looking.


Despite what Peter suggests , I would expect the 21:55 to give us a clearer insight.......I'm not saying specifics because as we know, Snow is hard to pin point .

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 January 2016 21:08:08

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html


A real turn-round for week 2

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gooner
06 January 2016 21:09:52


Also interesting to see right out at the end of the FI the PV getting a hammering

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


David M Porter
06 January 2016 21:12:28

New thread coming along shortly comrades.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Jive Buddy
06 January 2016 21:13:24


 


Lurking mate


PM'd you


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Where am I, "Weatheredfacebook"?!....

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Whether Idle
06 January 2016 21:13:29


 


Also interesting to see right out at the end of the FI the PV getting a hammering


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Equally interesting to note that the cold spell (should it arrive) will have done so without a bloody sudden stratospheric warming.  Strat obsessives may want to consider this.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
kmoorman
06 January 2016 21:13:34


New thread coming along shortly comrades.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


Just in time for the backtracking and depression.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Gooner
06 January 2016 21:13:48


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html


A real turn-round for week 2


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Indeed David and if verified it would be a huge and quick shift . It was only days ago Steve ( Gusty ) was taking a two break becuase it was all so poor. Many had written January off , they might of course still be proved right but as we stand the cold is on the way, the only question being is the longevity and severity and the favourite question " where will if any snow fall"

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
06 January 2016 21:14:00

I'll take the ECM 12z control !!

Originally Posted by: squish 

">http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim


 


Plenty of milder solutions in there though but The Dutch ensembles less useful in a Northerly.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
06 January 2016 21:14:59


 


Equally interesting to note that the cold spell (should it arrive) will have done so without a bloody sudden stratospheric warming.  Strat obsessives may want to consider this.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Which blows all that theory doesnt it ......................a bit

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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