Thats just crazily good. 

Northern hemisphere view is a thing of beauty by day 10 dream charts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

Amazing run ecm she is just leaving with her pet friend tonight 

Indeed. Many, many times over the past 15 years we've seen these stellar charts moderate or even vanish completely as the timeframe marches towards us. Interesting model watching for sure, but it's still just that. Temper the excitement with realism. Chances look as good as I've seen them over the past few years,for a decent cold spell, but no bunting being hung just yet IMO.

Different place, but similar shape?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

Which led 4 days later to:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

Horses for courses. Most of us are excited about the models bearing all.

Yes, but my point was that there was nothing there to suggest that the Met Office would be altering their forecast for next week.

On the other hand, the ECM 12z run..........

They will properly alter their forecast for next week next week.

Stunning output this evening with a huge Greeny block forming and LP diving into Southern Europe. What would be amazing if we could see record breaking cold after the mildest December on record, now that would be a winter of two halves.

Your point earlier Peter about the energy moving n/e is still a threat with that thrown up ridge japs shows your point very nicely

I tell you what that is not far off the great Blizzard of 1881 chart. Needs the low to be deeper.

Nothing much to add other than it can only go downhill from here. Spoiler shortwaves and the curse of the Daily Express to come no doubt

As mentioned earlier Feb 2007  was the best example of an almost nailed  northerly that went t*ts up at +96

Yes very in house- but mine was a new joke regarding the homophones implied. Not very funny, I grant.  Now the split winter- now there's one to make us both chuckle.

Beware of models bearing gifts.  They say "come with me to the land of the 1060 Greenland High, the land of the undercutting channel low...da plane...da plane...."

At this stage I think it's worth comparing the GFS ensemble output to that a week or so before the nov/dec 2010 cold spell:

2010 (thanks Retron):

Now:

Perhaps just perhaps extended cold to come

Christ! Just looked at tonight's ECM and nearly fainted, the wife thought I was having a heart attack!

Should it verify we would be looking at a very special spell of weather.

Andy

Love the way the mean goes up-and-down; meaning the mean means not much of use- not even an effective trend descriptor.

November 27th 2010

ECM 12z day 10

Very similar aren't they?

 But have a quick word with Steve for a quick look before everything goes *its up