[quote=Gavin D;824724]FOUR MONTHS OF SNOW UK facing heaviest snowfall in years as the country’s first icy blast arrives in just SIX WEEKS

Forecasters warn of crippling snowstorms and major whiteouts lasting well into February

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1852997/uk-facing-heaviest-snowfall-in-years-as-the-countrys-first-icy-blast-arrives-in-just-six-weeks/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-TheSunNewspaper-_-20160926-_-News-_-598052039[/quote]

it looks to be the same read as of the EXPRESS, tho James Madden gets about across these papers,  how can they say this so far out, and even matt hugo is mentioned tho he only say its shaping up diff from last year unless the likes of micheal fish MR BRIAN is mention then I take it with a pinch of salt the north is always guaranteed a winter more than the south just like the south is more likely to see more of a summer than the north its the same old every year with the papers tho last 6 winters have been PANTS so fingers cross for this year

BBC Monthly outlook

Monday 26 September—Sunday 2 October
What will the final week of September bring?

September will draw to a close in a conventional autumnal style with areas of low pressure bringing wet and windy weather at times. It is likely we will see a succession of these through this coming week, the first of which on Monday, with rain arriving from the southwest bringing the risk of coastal gales too. This will then be followed by further spells of wet and windy conditions throughout the week, though there are likely to be some drier intervals too with some good spells of sunshine.

Monday 3 October—Sunday 9 October
October has arrived; will we see a change?

Possibly. The most likely situation however is to see a continuation of the unsettled theme with wet and windy weather. It is likely that during this time we will see a northwest-southeast split start to develop with southeast England seeing the driest conditions and conversely, Scotland and Northern Ireland the wettest. But it's worth remembering, there is a chance of more settled conditions pushing across the UK, especially later in the week. This would bring the possibility of a quieter spell of weather particularly in the southeast.

Monday 10 October—Sunday 23 October
How's mid to late October looking?

Peering further ahead, it looks likely that we will keep a classically autumnal theme. It will remain unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter and drier interludes.

Next week

Will that small glimmer of more settled conditions push in over the UK?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met Office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Oct 2016 to Monday 10 Oct 2016:

The weekend will be breezy, with a risk of gales at times in the north and west. Showers or longer spells of rain are likely, which will be most persistent in northern and western parts, with the best of any bright spells in the southeast. Changeable conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the period with mainly west or southwesterly winds dominating. This will bring showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some brighter periods. The most persistent rain occurring in the northwest, where there is also the risk of occasional gales. Some good brighter spells are possible in the southeast. Temperatures a little below average at first, but then rising to near or above average in the south, and perhaps also at times further north.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Oct 2016 to Tuesday 25 Oct 2016:

There is currently low confidence for the forecast during the second half of October. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of mainly west or southwesterly winds. This will bring changeable weather with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some dry and bright periods. The north and west is likely to see the heaviest and most persistent rain, with also strong winds or gales at times. The south and east is likely to see the best of the dry and bright conditions, with the possibility of some more prolonged settled spells. Temperatures will vary through the period, but probably averaging out slight above average for the time of year, with an increasing risk of overnight frost in the more settled spells.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

 

Max that day was 28.3c (not sure where though)

It also reached 29.9c in Gravesend on the 1st October 2011

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Interestingly a gentleman farmer whom I had a brief chat with at the local coffee shop when visiting the Cotsworlds swore on his life we were in for a very hard winter basing his forecast on the state of his Hawthorne bushes! He implied it with such conviction that I went away with the thought that possibly 2016/17 winter season may herald a change to a colder than average winter ....

Autumnal berry loads depend upon what has gone before, not what is to come.  Or are you saying hawthorns have conscious benevolent foresight?

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You have caught me out on this one
I was just quoting his observations he seemed pretty convinced that we were in for a harsh winter it was his tone and sheer conviction that alerted me

 

maybe the Hawthornes are pattern matching ? 

Yes, you're right. How silly of me.

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no disrespect to simon keeling but this pee,s me of when forecasters forecast this far ahead

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

it is nice to read what may happen ahead but always turns out to be wrong every forecaster should know that you can not really forecast from 3-5 days in advance let alone 2 months ahead,

anyway it was a nice read,

I'd have expected a little higher than that in the SE…… however if that was the highest, that was the highest.

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Reasonably technical review here

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/dbe96a83525ae1f0cc14662f498e793f/article/can_holly_forecast_winter_weather.html

I had a look on the web for a scientific basis to this belief, but although it's mentioned in various blogs, most say that they haven't found a correlation between berry crops and harsh winters

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http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-weather-indian-summer-set-for-october-after-warmer-than-average-september/ar-BBwHBFY?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp

one min its cold snow ice now indian summer,

all this continuous dry warm weather we must be in for some sort of harsh winter surely

http://newsthump.com/2016/09/28/meteorologists-claim-this-winter-will-see-worst-daily-express-weather-scaremongering-in-thirty-years/ 

:)

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From Paul Hudson's blog in November 2012

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/756e3a7a-74c6-3e6f-8c6a-646ddc9f39d5

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ITV sticking with MetO - no surprise there I suppose, although the revamped image looks quite familiar!
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/oct/03/met-office-revamps-itv-weather-after-losing-bbc-deal 

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Having watched the BBC weather by John Hammond I am feeling positive because he did show a strong easterly wind and a cooler pool (blue) of air coming all the way from Russia heading our way on Wednesday and Thursday - is this the sign of things to come?! Also imagine the pattern we have this week but in 8 weeks time? - I am having some positive thoughts also, combine this with an active hurricane season too! - Good sign of a proper chance for some blocking to take place. But perfect set up for a raw easterly wind with wind-chill and snow grains/dustings type - if this was to occur in winter!

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Alex Deakin is leaving the BBC he is moving to the Met office in Exeter tomorrow

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Oct 2016 to Friday 21 Oct 2016:

The largely settled weather is likely to continue for the start of this period but it will often be rather cloudy. There'll be showers along eastern coasts and it will remain rather cool for the time of year. It is likely to be breezy at times too, across eastern and southern coastal areas especially, with a low risk of gales in the southwest. There'll be some cold nights as well in the north, with a local frost possible and the chance of some mist or fog patches in rural parts, but it will be less cold by night in the south. More unsettled conditions will then move in from the south by the weekend, with showers or longer spells of rain for the south and west in particular.

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Oct 2016 to Saturday 5 Nov 2016:

Although conditions may turn more settled again for a time early in the period, there is expected to be a trend towards more changeable weather into late October and early November. The most unsettled weather is expected in the north and northwest, with the strongest winds and the heaviest outbreaks of rain here. Temperatures will vary through the period, but will probably be around average for the time of year, perhaps just above in the south. Northern areas by contrast will probably see average temperatures too, so there will be an increasing risk of overnight frosts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BEAST FROM THE EAST Britain to be rocked by snowy storms, howling gales, freezing temperatures and flooding

The Met Office has forecast shocking “storm systems” hitting in the second half of October

BRITAIN faces shocking October floods and tempests before winter starts early with a ‘Beast from the East’ bringing -10C temperatures. The Indian Summer is well and truly over as the Met Office forecast a chilly week ahead with freezing frosts and colder-than-normal days.

“A plunge of Arctic air may arrive,” said The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1940637/britain-to-be-rocked-by-snowy-storms-howling-gales-freezing-temperatures-and-flooding/ 

What goes before has a bearing on what is to come.

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