Still cold 7 days out

ECM192 looks even more interesting.

ECM at t+192 is FI Heaven for coldies:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016010912/ECH1-192.GIF?09-0

But of course, we have been here before, so let's take it with a pinch of salt for now.

And so it proves...

Edit: 500-1,000 hPa values still around 525-526 over the Home Counties.

Looks quite marginal in places at 192.

I know its FI, but "hello", eyebrow raised. Could be very good deeper in at day 9.....

I wonder what coming next on the ECM at T240!!? 😉😜

Yes, at first glance I agree - but by then there might be snow on the ground and a sharp overnight frost, which should make a small difference.

Still a long way off, of course.

I've seen enough, I'd be surprised if the GFS doesn't perform a volte face.

ECM could easily topple post T144 so will be interesting to see where this sits in thensembles  later.

ECMWF front overlay.

Warm sector moving on a SErly trajectory.

You changed your post.....!  Anyway here's T+216 - stiff north-easterly in the wake of low pressure.

Edit: with impressive 850s:

Clear Fantasy stuff here at day 9 but a very decent charts for wintriness for the SE half:

ECM216 still cold,

Also a magnificent 216 from ECM with entrenched cold over the UK and the HP building over the top into Scandi.

Pity it won't turn out quite like that on the day.

Hi all,

Just a quick question. Been following the updates anonymously but would just like to ask what FI means? I've seen it in a few posts. No expert or anything, I'm here just wondering what the experts think 

Another question is when I signed up, some of the pages on the forum go black and white for some odd reason.. and Im not sure why.

Looks ok to me, i,ve seen worse, probably won't happen, but you never know.

Fantasy Island.......

Cold in a good set up

It refers to the "unreliable" time frame in the model output and stands for Fantasy Island.

It is not an official term and can refer to anything from about 48hrs in times of great uncertainty to 5 years for Tallyho 

For example the ECM is good in the short and medium term and even better in FI this evening or until 216hrs anyway. With the current level of uncertainty I would say FI is probably anything beyond about 120hrs.

Fantasy Island.  Means that anything past 120/144/168 hrs is there for academic interest/ trend spotting/ to be completely mislead only.  Delete as applicable.

Edit:

Worth seeing if this (ECM 240) can be correctred 300 miles West:

[quote=Gooner;753371]

Cold in a good set up

Am I reading this right? Parts of north Africa are colder than parts of northern Iceland.