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nsrobins
16 January 2016 10:25:20

I'm 8 miles inland N of Portsmouth Steve.


GFS has trended a bit East but will await Arpege and Euro4 before calling it.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whether Idle
16 January 2016 10:43:31


6z has trended everything slightly further east.


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Stoke - Hastings still looking a reasonable bet for the snowline.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Russwirral
16 January 2016 10:45:44

The previp has arrived much sooner to the irish sea.


 


Just looked outside and the frost on my car has melted under cloudy skies.  what was a frost wonderland at 9am, is now damp.  Im expecting rain any minute.  


 


shame


Essan
16 January 2016 10:48:37


in conclusion - a pesky little thing to model but unfortunately as of now I won't be issuing an advisory for S Hampshire/SW Sussex so you can take my snow line as Brighton to Swindon to Evesham say. Might change though lol.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



More likely 1 mile east of Evesham


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
doctormog
16 January 2016 11:02:33
In terms of progress the snow band has reached and is delivering settling snow to low levels in SW Scotland currently.

No chance here and although it is cold, snow looks like continuing to evade us up here (again!)
Saint Snow
16 January 2016 11:08:21


No chance here and although it is cold, snow looks like continuing to evade us up here (again!)

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Hopefully you'll get a decent fall before too long (given the changeable output, some feature could appear from apparently nowhere within 24-48 hours).


In the meantime, I'll look forward to Richard's opinion.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
stophe
16 January 2016 11:09:06

Looking at the latest radar the rain sleet and snow area looks rather larger than what I expected.


http://www.rain-alarm.com


 

nsrobins
16 January 2016 11:11:32
The Aperge ppn is probably not a good guide on the 06 run as its not initialised the ppn very well at all. There is much more extent and intensity currently than the +5hr chart has modelled.
In short, choose your usual window and get polishing πŸ˜ŠπŸ˜‰
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whiteout
16 January 2016 11:20:57

The Aperge ppn is probably not a good guide on the 06 run as its not initialised the ppn very well at all. There is much more extent and intensity currently than the +5hr chart has modelled.
In short, choose your usual window and get polishing πŸ˜ŠπŸ˜‰

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Hi Neil, still not sure whether to expect sleet or snow here, mind you being slap bang in the middle of the warning area helps!


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Deep Powder
16 January 2016 11:22:09


 


Yes really time going quick and today I am 43 so there no snowfall on my day but likely to come after mdnight unless if arrive at 11.55pm!  We are well overdue for something that deep nationwide. 


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Over 40cm of snow fell here, a great event. Remember Gusty's photos of it well, it was strange seeing places I knew so well, photographed by a fellow member of TWO as a snow tourist...........πŸ˜‚


Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Rob K
16 January 2016 11:24:59


6z has trended everything slightly further east.Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


looks good for me in terms of intensity but not in terms of whiteness!


Actually if I squint I am right on the dividing line between rain and snow.


Iphone weather app shows snow here from 10pm to 7am though... :)


 


PS Happy birthday Jiries :)


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome
Twister
16 January 2016 11:34:47
From an IMBY point of view, I'm quite liking the trend east on tonights ppt. More of us snow-starved Kent folk might wake up to a dusting, even if the most intense ppt rates remain tantalisingly to our west.

Some weather apps also suggested a risk of light snow for a short time here tonight after the 0Z update.
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Jiries
16 January 2016 11:42:32


 


looks good for me in terms of intensity but not in terms of whiteness!


Actually if I squint I am right on the dividing line between rain and snow.


Iphone weather app shows snow here from 10pm to 7am though... :)


 


PS Happy birthday Jiries :)


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Thanks Rob and I look out tonight and hope it arrive before midnight.  Clear outside now and good to refreeze this evening.  

Windy Willow
16 January 2016 11:47:54

From an IMBY point of view, I'm quite liking the trend east on tonights ppt. More of us snow-starved Kent folk might wake up to a dusting, even if the most intense ppt rates remain tantalisingly to our west.

Some weather apps also suggested a risk of light snow for a short time here tonight after the 0Z update.

Originally Posted by: Twister 


 


I'll take a slight covering! It's looking promising but must contain any possible excitement until it actually happens


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!!Β When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Saint Snow
16 January 2016 11:50:12

Hey Russ, any news on what the PPN is falling as over the Wirral? I'm guessing this chunk of PPN ahead of the bigger band will be rain. Temp here has risen from -3.2c at 9am to +0.4c now.


Eeek!


 


DP at Liverpool is +1c; at Manchester it's -1c. I'm close to halfway between the two, so around 0c. Going to be a very close run thing.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Russwirral
16 January 2016 11:51:40


Hey Russ, any news on what the PPN is falling as over the Wirral? I'm guessing this chunk of PPN ahead of the bigger band will be rain. Temp here has risen from -3.2c at 9am to +0.4c now.


Eeek!


 


DP at Liverpool is +1c; at Manchester it's -1c. I'm close to halfway between the two, so around 0c. Going to be a very close run thing.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


i can really see anything falling if im honest. Everywhere is slightly and i mean slightly damp.


 


Someroof tops still have a frost on them,


Rob K
16 January 2016 11:52:41
I'm liking the hi-res NRM 6Z run...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=24&mode=1&map=330 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
16 January 2016 11:55:56

Either they're being very misleading or they know something their automated forecasts don't. Because there is no mention of rain there for tonight or tomorrowπŸ˜•

"Regional forecast for London & South East England
Mostly dry with sunny spells after a frosty start.

Today:
After a frosty start with some icy patches on untreated surfaces, the day should be dry with some good sunny spells, although sunshine will be increasingly hazy through the afternoon. Maximum Temperature 6°C.

Tonight:
Cloud thickening during the evening with outbreaks of sleet or snow developing after midnight, although much of Kent should stay dry. Frosty again overnight, especially in the east. Minimum Temperature -3°C.

Sunday:
After a frosty start in places, a rather cloudy day to follow, but with any outbreaks of sleet or snow tending to peter out. Maximum Temperature 5°C."

fullybhoy
16 January 2016 11:56:21
Well its arrived here, moderate snow, -1c
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
Β 
Whether Idle
16 January 2016 11:57:04

I'm liking the hi-res NRM 6Z run...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=24&mode=1&map=330

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Arpege also shifts things back west...looking good for a dusting for my west Chiltern walk!



Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Saint Snow
16 January 2016 11:57:35

I'm liking the hi-res NRM 6Z run...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=24&mode=1&map=330

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


You & me both, Rob!!


When I began to run the output from the start, my biggest fears were realised - rain from around 3pm/4pm. But then, as the front slips further south (taking the mild sector with it), the PPN turns to snow from around 7pm.


Then it gets heavier, running through to the early hours.


I very much could live with that!


 


 


Edit: midnight




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
16 January 2016 12:01:33

Arome 6z 0.025deg charts for 21GMT to 00GMT tonight:


 






 


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
16 January 2016 12:04:48

Arome 6z view from 02GMT to 05GMT tomorrow morning. (Images should be well compressed





 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Russwirral
16 January 2016 12:12:30

looking at the radar, i cant help but think whoever is lucky enough to be in exactly the right spot - will get a lot of snow out of today.  


 


Front front edge on the radar is shaping up to look like a streamer... so whoeevr is on that line due SSE will get what appears to be several hours of heavy snow - where as either side will be light snow to the east and light rain to the west,.


 


Im placing a best bet around warrington and crewe to do well out of this


Solar Cycles
16 January 2016 12:15:08
Well I'm expecting an all snow event around these parts, of course whether I see that is another matter.

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