I am in agreement, I think we are going to need to wait a further week or perhaps two at least before writing off the winter, as you suggest White Meadows.
I think it will be next week when the first signs may start to appear in FI.
As Ive said before, one week of cold with a fall of snow that hangs about for a few days would rescue this winter for me from the reject pile. The modal average for days of laying snow is zero, zilch, nothing for many areas. In other words - a snowless winter, whilst not the norm, is the most common outcome in terms of days of laying snow. Mean averages are dragged up by freak years such as 2010, 2005 IMBY, 1963, 1979, 1985 etc....My point being, that pre-conceived expectations perhaps should be set in advance at the modal average outcome (speaking from a southern urban perspective), and that any advance from zero for snowcover days in a winter is a bonus...
The models continue to show zonality as the favoured outcome, with just one breakaway option popping in this morning. Plenty of time for this to change, and as an illustration, there are another 40 GFS runs between now and February 9th.
On the other hand, IF there is to be no cold spell in February, March can deliver both pleasant spring mildness and sparkling sunshine, as much as the earlier half can deliver the coldest weather of the winter period, March is often a fascinating period for model watching.
From a model watchers point of view, it really can be win-win.
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle