Pff. I've been cutting the lawn on a fortnightly basis since mid-February.

Anyway, after this quiet settled week, indeed it does look set to be cool and showery over the weekend and into next week. Looks like winter isn't quite done for the Scottish contingence but as others had said, it is by no means unusual and does serve a good reminder that we are still only in April anyway.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An anticyclone over Southern England will extend North over the next 24 hours dissolving the very weak trough straddling it across Southern Britain at the moment with an Easterly flow developing across the South tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will continue to rise across the UK in the coming days settling at between 5000-8000ft from tomorrow so no snowfall is expected anywhere over the next few days.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder at the weekend with cool nights and sunshine and showers looking likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Southern arm of the Jet stream currently South of Spain will persist for some time while the Northern arm near Northern Scotland ridges across the Atlantic later this week and turns South down across the UK from the weekend where it remains for much of next week eventually merging with the flow well South of the UK later next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows quiet conditions for the remainder of this week although some rain on an increasing Easterly flow may reach the South towards the end of the working week. High pressure responsible for this will then move from Northern Britain out into the Atlantic and away to the NW with all eyes then to the North a s a cold and showery Northerly extends to all areas by the end of the weekend with a spell of sunshine and cold showers looking likely next week with all areas at risk with some longer spells of rain possible too especially in the East. Still cold enough for snow on northern hills and frosts at night where skies clear. There is some evidence of a recovery in temperatures towards the end of the second week as winds trend more towards the West.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is pretty much the same as the cold Northerly flow next week follows this weeks quiet conditions and is subsequently succeeded by warmer winds developing across the UK towards the end of the second week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today are very mixed again today with everything from cold Northerlies, High pressure over the UK and Low pressure over the UK all possibilities. So the Clusters today do not seem a very worthwhile evaluation in acquiring an idea of where we might be weather-wise in two weeks.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the slow progression of Low pressure to the East of the UK becoming the dominant feature of the weather across the UK by the end of the weekend and beginning to next week. In the meantime the current quiet and benign conditions could be interrupted by some cloud and rain in the South on Friday opening the door then to the North winds and increasing amounts of showers by the start of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today agree with the theme of the Operational Run with High pressure through the week pushed out to the West by the weekend with troughs moving up from the South at the end of the working week transferred to a cold Northerly flow over the weekend with bright skies, cold winds and scattered showers, wintry on hills in the North and East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning also shows a largely dry and bright remainder of the week though with some rain easing into the South for a time on Friday before it becomes swept away by an increasingly cold and unstable flow from the North with showers. Then next week the run shows Low pressure close by to the UK with cool and showery weather with some longer spells of rain too and temperatures rather much on the low side of average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows good support for a High pressure based 3-4 days to come before a cold Northerly develops across the UK from the weekend as High pressure is forced away West and Low pressure to the East sets up a cold and showery northerly flow across the UK next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today still shows to me the least extent of cold weather next week. Although the first half of the week does show a cold and showery northerly for most it eventually cuts off the cold supply to the South entirely as the Low pressure responsible moves sufficiently West to keep winds more NW or even West later with the coldest air held away to the NW. The weather would be unsettled though with some showers for all but in the South at least this run shows the possibility of some warm sunshine between the showers in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over Scandinavia and High pressure over the Atlantic with a chilly North or NW flow across the UK with sunshine and showers the general theme of the chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes are just small and subtle in the different ways in which a chilly Northerly flow is shown and as a result will likely be blowing down across the UK in the 10-14 day period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.6 pts and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 64.6 pts to 57.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.8 pts to 38.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The theme from the models this morning is still a strong one in favour of a cold Northerly airflow to become established across the UK next week. There are some glimmers of hope though within the mix and ECM is beginning to show a way we might see just a short spell of cold Northerly winds before in the South at least things become much more modified as the coldest air is held away to the NW. This would inevitably mean that temperatures would approach normal with time and whilst not warm the sunny spells between the continuing showers would feel very welcome in temperatures closer to average. However, the rest of the output is less productive with a desire to maintain a very chilly Northerly feed across the UK for a week to 10 days at least while High pressure remains High to the west and NW. These type of spells are not that uncommon at this time of year but some of the uppers shown are certainly rather chilly for April to say the least so snow would certainly be possible over the hills though unlikely to be problematic. Frosts at night could be though as clear skies could result in some local sharp and damaging frosts for gardeners and growers so something to be aware of within the day to day forecasts next week. So while no particularly wet and windy weather to come plenty to keep us on our toes and it's probably best to enjoy the benign and pleasantly warm conditions of the next few days before temperatures set back a month or so next week.

Next Update Wednesday April 20th 2016 from 09:00

Supported by Weather for the Week ahead last night, with a suggestion that the cold weather could last into May

It's pretty rare for northerlies to last for 10 days+. I'd be surprised if it stayed cold for that long personally.

Shades of April 1981, which was followed by a spectacular winter, especially in December 1981 - one can dream...

Charts are pretty exceptional for the weekend and next week. Will be interesting to see how long this blocking episode goes on for but if you want a good summer best hope it's not a semi-regular feature for the next 3-4 months, LOL! 

I've wondered more than once if the eruption of Mt. St. Helens back in April 1980 contributed somewhat to the cold winters that followed? Maybe not, but it is curious how the winter of Nov/Dec 2010 followed closely on the back of a big eruption in Iceland earlier that year.

Agreed. It's understandable to be a but peeved when the really decent synoptics appear three months too late, but you can't help being impressed by the degree of cold air on offer next week. If things click with timing and intensity, a late spring snowfall is possible anywhere.

This has been my gut feeling for sometime; March and April below average but right at the end of April ive a feeling things will start to change and from early may,just after the first bank holiday temperatures will sky rocket.Hope so anyway!

Unfortunately there is little consistent sign of anything in the way of warming up to above average across current model output and this is mirrored by today's MO extended outlook. The best it seems we can hope for, based on current evidence, is more average conditions by the time we approach mid May. All rather depressing but at least with a bit of luck there should be some good sunny spells.

Realistic assessment Michael.

Aye

Aside from the northern blocking set up, this upcoming "cold spell" all seem to hinge on a "cut off" low pressure slowly creeping in from the north east and then "anchored" over the North Sea before getting pushed back eastwards, that would be instrumental on how strong or slack the northerly airflow will be over the next week or so.

As others in here had already alluded, us southern contingent tend to do quite well in terms of clear skies at this end and thus will get to feel pleasantly mild in any sunshine we do get. Just that it'll tend to be chilly first thing in the morning before the rising April sun get to work.

From GFS, as an area of low pressure to the East moves a little closer during next week, things get quite interesting as pulses of colder air move southwards through the country with little disturbances caught up in the mix too. Could be a surprise for some if charts verify.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1983.gif

Some pretty low morning temps.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22217.gif

Regardless of the specifics next week is looking like a convective photographers dream week with sunny mornings giving way to explosive sky scapes from 11am onwards. Although the night time periods will be predominantly dry and frosty we need  to be aware of features in the flow providing the odd surprise here and there. 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure across the UK today will persist for a day or so before moving West out into the Atlantic towards the weekend. At the same time Low pressure over Spain will move slowly North pushing some troughs towards Southern England later tonight and tomorrow with a strengthening Easterly flow across the South of the UK today and tonight decreasing again on Thursday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is much higher than of late with values at around 5000ft in the North and to as high as 8000ft in the South for a time over the next few days. It is set to plunge to as low as 1500ft - 2000ft by the weekend.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming colder at the weekend with cool nights and sunshine and showers looking likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. Perhaps becoming less cold as we enter May.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains split North and South of the UK as High pressure across the UK separates the flow. As the High is pushed West out into the Atlantic the Northern arm of the flow moves South across the UK late this weekend and next week becoming a cyclonic pattern then with the Northern aspect slowly being lost with a more variable flow pattern expected late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current quiet conditions under High pressure gradually becoming replaced by a chilly Northerly flow by the weekend with some showers. This Northerly will be cold and will last a while before the flow slowly backs Westerly and become less cold later while the weather overall remains rather changeable with some rain or showers at times. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run follows the Operational to a point before it shows a build of High pressure across the UK in Week 2 with fine and sunny days under chilly nights with some frosts before a warmer Easterly flow develops towards the end of the period. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today are once more very mixed but are less supportive of a cold Northerly now and show a very mixed set of members supporting anything between a slack and benign pressure pattern to Low pressure over Scotland with rain for all.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning still shows a cold pattern developing as we move through the weekend. The weather itself takes rather longer to take a turn into more unsettled mode though with the weekend apart from a few showers in the North and East largely dry with night frosts. It's not until next week when all areas look at risk of more widespread cold weather with wintry showers in a strong Northerly draught as Low pressure focuses just to the East of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today agree with the theme of the Operational Run with High pressure pulled out into the Atlantic come the weekend and a Northerly flow developing. Rain bearing troughs clear the South but we will have to watch for weak disturbances running South close to Western Britain later in the weekend in the Northerly flow delivering more cloud and some rain or even sleet on the hills.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows a cold Northerly flow developing from the weekend and lasting through to the end of the run. With pressure Low to the East and High to the West the Northerly flow will promote daytime showers and in the cold air they could fall as anything including sleet or snow at times across the hills with frosts at night under clearing skies.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Northerly winds becoming the dominant factor in the UK weather from the weekend as the current quiet weather is sucked away out into the Atlantic. In the far South the precursor to this weather will be cloud and rain for a time on Friday before all areas stay chilly with sunshine and cold showers for the rest of the weekend and much of next week with frost at night likely. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today continues to show the same drift into a cold Northerly flow as the rest of the output. However, it is looking increasingly likely that the South and West may not see too much chance of wintry showers with the focus of these towards the North and East. However, frost at night will be widespread everywhere before winds eventually back towards a Westerly point bringing less cold but changeable conditions to all areas after the turn of the month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over Scandinavia and High pressure somewhat further South over the Atlantic perhaps allowing more of a backing of wind towards the West and bringing temperatures up a bit from previous days though still with some showers across the North and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes in the model remains small but there is a slow shift away from the coldest conditions lasting too long this morning as the theme of milder Westerly winds in 10 days increases.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.8 pts to UKMO at 86.5 pts and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.6 pts to 56.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.8 pts to 37.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  There is evidence in the models this morning that the very worst of the cold weather next week may not last too long or be tempered considerably if you live towards the SW of the UK as after a few days the signs of the Northerly losing some of it's impetus is hinted at. The general pattern though remains one of cold Northerly winds enveloping the UK from the weekend. In the North and East in particular this could be come a very showery flow with sleet or snow across the hills. Further West and showers look far less frequent and there will be a lot of dry weather around. We may have to watch for weak disturbances rounding the Atlantic High and slipping South close to the west of the UK bringing some rain or sleet but away from this West looks best from midweek next week. Then as the High slips further South over the Atlantic by some models the winds begin to back more towards NW and eventually West which could cut off the cold source from the UK and bring less cold but still changeable conditions later, a fact well documented by this morning's ECM Operational Run and GFS too. So looking at all of the output in a nutshell it looks like the North and East in particular are going to feel the full blast of a late Spring Northerly with cold winds and April Wintry showers aplenty next week. In the West and South while colder the cold will be somewhat tempered by a lot of dry and bright weather with fewer wintry showers but all areas will likely see some unwelcome late April frosts. Then as we look to the longer term output it does appear that the trend will be towards less cold weather as we enter May under Westerly winds and occasional rainfall especially in the North in an eventually much more standard pressure pattern over and around the UK.

Next Update Thursday April 21st 2016 from 09:00

WRF Saturday

Its ridiculous how close to the UK that -10C upper isotherm is.