Nothing spectacularly cold for Sunday as things hove into the reliable from the ECM.

It would feel warmer locally than it did today with some sun and an offshore wind.

Not much change from the sunshine and potentially wintry showers outlook that has been consistently shown for quite a few days now. With notably low uppers for this time of the year it could go from "mid-Spring" to "winter" in a short period of time. The first bit of cold looks likely to move in on Friday but then there's also something worth watching a few days later (although at that range there is still time for "downgrades".

Naturally at this time of the year it goes without saying that in any sunshine and in the shelter from the wind it will not feel remotely wintry.

Edit: I must say it is rather unusual to see the -10°C t850hPa line over any part of the mainland UK in the second half of April: http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016042012/ECU0-72.GIF?20-0 

with a run of some damaging night time air frost something us gardeners don't want at this time of year as we head into late April

Gardeners take note

l

The 18Z attempts the latest ice day on record next week. 

I do hope GFS is right. Still keeping this hint that weather will come from a southerly influence in the first week of May with temps for a number into the twenties. Trouble is it's still so far out it could drop the idea in instant, and has already done in at least one run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37217.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3722.gif

Well looks like ECM is on board with a nice start to May in FI this morning as well at least in the South:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Uppers still a bit chilly but with light winds and strong sunshine (if cloud amounts are not too great) it could be quite pleasant for the May bank holiday. Maybe a trend as still deep FI so one to watch.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure across the North of the UK will slide away to the West over the coming few days. In the South troughs of Low pressure will edge up from the South tomorrow with a stiff NE breeze and then a Northerly flow will then develop across all of the UK over the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is as high as 10000ft across the far South today but over the coming days colder uppers will move steadily South with the freezing level dropping to as low as between 1700ft-3000ft even across the South over the weekend with snow showers on hills above around 500ft at times giving accumulations above 2000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming colder at the weekend with cool nights and sunshine and showers looking likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. Perhaps becoming less cold as we enter May.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is in the process of change as the split flow is replaced by a South moving flow from the Northern arm moving down over the UK through the weekend and for much of next week. Then in the second week the flow backs Westerly with it's core to the NW of the Uk through the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a North or NNW flow developing across the UK over the coming week or so delivering cold temperatures and showers with sleet or snow in the mix along with hail and thunder as well as bright sunshine between times and frosts at night for many. Most of the showers will be in the North and East and the trend will be for less cold weather to develop from later next week as winds back Westerly and High pressure builds near the South towards the May day Bank Holiday with warmer and sunnier weather as a result while the North sees cloudier conditions with some rain.  

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is less supportive of milder air returning after a week or so of cold Northerlies. Instead it keeps rather cool and very showery weather going for many well into the second week and probably right out until the end of the period as shallow and cool Low pressure is shown to remain close to the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  It's been some considerable while since the GFS Clusters were instrumental in giving a good indication of what weather to expect across the UK in a couple of weeks and this morning's crop is no exception with High pressure positioned in a variety of positions around the UK along with some Low pressure too offering some rather cool and changeable conditions within the mix.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning still shows a cold pattern developing as we move through the weekend. The weather will be typified by a mix of sunshine and April showers but those showers will be cold and potentially wintry with frosts at night a common feature for many as skies clear overnight especially in the South and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a cold Northerly flow developing across the weekend with sunshine and showers the order of the weather but with some disturbances shown to move South in the flow at times enhancing the showers, wintry on hills almost anywhere by early next weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows a cold Northerly flow too this weekend and next weekend with sunshine and potentially wintry showers by day and frost by night. With time though and later in the period the winds fall lighter and back westerly and with gently rising pressure the showers should die away later next week with the South seeing nearer to normal temperatures by day but still with the risk of frost by night in the by then quiet conditions for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM N/A at time of issue. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today continues to show the same drift into a cold Northerly flow at it'sd peak early next week when winds will be stronger and a day or so of really raw conditions seem possible with widespread showers, strong winds and sleet or snow in those showers on the hills almost anywhere. This then marks the change to less cold conditions later in the week as High pressure builds from the SW killing many of the showers and steadily backing winds off towards the West with much less cold conditions especially by day with sunny spells in the South and any remaining showers restricted towards the NW late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows the cold northerly flow all but dead by then with winds having backed off towards the West. There are still quite a few members who keep Low pressure in control though with showers especially in the North with the overall bias towards the driest conditions developing towards the South later in those less cold temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes in the model remains slow but there is a continuing shift away from the coldest conditions lasting too long this morning as the theme of milder Westerly winds arriving towards the latter part of the period continues to be shown.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.4 pts and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.6 pts to 55.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.1 pts to 36.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models continue to point towards a colder than average period of weather to come across the UK as winds over the next few days settle Northerly with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers developing across all areas by day with frosts under clear skies at night. the worst of the chill looks like being early next week when a squeeze in isobars make for a windy and raw period especially over the east where more prolonged showers look possible for a time with snow over modest hills. In the South and west a lot of dry and bright weather will occur between more scattered showers in sparkling visibility. Then as we look further ahead the pattern still looks a bit mixed but the general trend of yesterday remains in that there should be a shift away from cold Northerlies to lighter and more importantly warmer Westerlies with the South possibly becoming largely dry and bright while the North sees more cloud and occasional rain. So all in all Winter refuses to lose it's grip next week but it should be it's last hurrah before something more seasonably traditional and Springlike arrives in Week 2 of this morning's output. In the meantime I would strongly advise gardeners and growers to protect or withhold placing tender plants in outside locations for a couple more weeks while the passage of this cold spell takes place. For the rest of us the cold spell will be no more than an inconvenience with some very pleasant looking conditions between the cold showers. Let's hope the improvements shown longer term this morning are enhanced and extended in the upcoming days outputs.

Next Update Friday April 22nd 2016 from 09:00 

A significant down grade in cold on the current met office 7 day outlook at the moment for us.. It was never looking as cold as last week but now most days have 11C with just 4-5C as overnight lows. 

NASA GEO5 manages to touch shetland with the -12C upper isotherm

Wow the 510 line is so close to the UK on this one; just 150 or so miles off shetland. Amazing to see it!

Still looks like a pretty notable late season cold spell to me. I think there's a decent chance of me seeing falling snow in the Chilterns. Also very interesting to see whether we get some decent warmth in early May as a few runs have been suggesting.

Iam amazed at why the M.O.D thread isn`t buzzing with excitement with what is potentially coming this weekend/into next week!?

If this was 3 or 4 months ago there would be 50 pages of posts per day!!

You answered your own question 

You have answered your own question there.

To be honest, down this way I am expecting nothing more than the odd shower, which may be convective.  Concerns about the amount of sunshine next week.  But mostly dry, cold for the time of year, but nothing exciting. 

Don't you mean 'up here'😄?  

Spring is located down south on the coast Bournemouth (I think).

Think the most interest is early next week. For example back end snow is possible on monday.

to be honest, expecting to be sat in the garden and topping up the tan, for 13c and sunny is the same as 25c and sunny down here ....tanning weather!

I guess people probably have got the message that sunshine feels nice in the south of England in April?

Anyway on topic and the models show a notably cold upper air mass moving across the country in the coming days/week. Wintry showers are not unusual in the north in April, but sub520 dam air and t850s approaching -10°C are more so. A noteworthy set of synoptics on the face of it...even if it it not bitterly cold with snow in many parts of the country.

The notably colder than average conditions in the coming 7 days are apparent in the the t2m GFS anomaly chart: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html