In the guess range now with Katie undergoing rapid deepening in SW approaches. Recent obs show Lands End dropping 10mb in last three hours. Amber update now UKMO. The consistant Aperge pushing 110kt gusts across Sussex and Kent during the early hours. Still time for tweaks either way so if you're travelling in this area first thing take care.

Indeed. Here we go again, but to be fair, this has been very well forecast from the start.

Oh well, better hatches down the battens as I put up with that stupid gale force southerly wind again. Can't I at least go more than a week without experiencing that weather type?  I mean, c'mon, it's almost April, not early January!

110 km/h, not 110 kts, I hope  - but even the former is notably (and disturbingly) strong inland...

Yes my bad - 110kph - sorry!

Mind you, it doesn't look good given the classic WV profile of a low undergoing explosive cyclogenesis. Centre now 250miles SW of Lands End - 980mb. That's a further 4mb in the last hour.

Frontal analysis at 18z. Looks tasty and is making me jealous.

ARPEGE is looking to be a good guide for this system based on current observations. So here's a handful of alarming charts;

Note how the overnight winds are just round 1 for some parts, with the wrap-around looking more powerful for inland areas of CS and SE England.

WV imagery suggests a sting jet could develop as the storm crosses England, but I am not sure if there is enough of a warm conveyor feature (with split front formation) to feed this potential.

Worst case scenario, the sting jet unfolds and there are localised gusts to between 90 and 110 mph, these within the area that the western limit of the arc of strong winds shown in the above charts. So right on the western flank of the core of the system.

It's possible that a sting jet could take long enough to form that only eastern parts are affected. That's still a pretty bad scenario though.

Good job it's a Bank Holiday, as this peak wind potential coincides with what would be the morning rush hour across CS England.

Even without a sting jet, a few inland gusts to the mid-70's mph seem possible tomorrow morning. Take care, southern residents - and avoid going out if you can help it.

Just driven home from my parents just outside Romsey. Road conditions are horrendous. Huge amounts of standing water on single carriageway roads. Already small branches down in places. Very difficult driving in torrential rain. 

The ARPEGE model has totally nailed this storm so far. Bad news is the 18z is an upgrade. Has the system at 970mb in a few hours time. Widespread 110-120kph winds inland across the south for a few hours. Not looking good.

At 23z the model had the centre at 973mb off the north coast of Cornwall with 975mb at the tip of Cornwall. Buoy reports at the tip of Cornwall confirm 975mb at 23z. 

Looks like Arpege has got this one right again. Horrendous night.

Well conditions down here in Pevensey are absolutely appalling. The roar of the wind is awful and the caravan is almost being thrown around. Sitting tight but we are certainly being rocked to sleep not that we can over the roar

The roar of the wind over the chimney is keeping us awake . I've just looked out the window to see trees dancing around like a samba. Not nice. Not going out to look at how much rain we've had. My local barometer reads 977mbs uncalibrated as a few nearby read 980mbs.

I'm not used to posting at this time of day but the noise outside has woken me. What is going on out there?

Proper storm for once. Very noisy out there. Reports of many trees down across Surrey. Flights diverted from Gatwick.