theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Saint Snow
Friday, April 8, 2016 8:33:26 AM

Thanks for clearing that up, Simon - I completely understand about time pressures!


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
Friday, April 8, 2016 10:21:56 AM

Met Office Hadley                8.5c.       Anomaly          2.0c.    Provisional to 7th.


Metcheck                             8.1c.       Anomaly           -0.01c.


Netweather                          8.72c.     Anomaly            0.63c.


Peasedown  St John             8.9c.       Anomaly            -1.8c.


         





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Friday, April 8, 2016 8:52:22 PM


No just very busy at work and so have very limited time. Can only fit this in when I have a bit of spare time which at the moment is non existent. I was on holiday last week which fortunately tied in with the month end. But by the time the entries for April closed I was busy again. I might get to it late tomorrow evening with a bit of luck.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

I know Saint wasn't criticising as I was wondering the same, but I wouldn't want you to feel you're under such pressure that this competition becomes a ball ache for you.  You put a lot of time and effort into it and it really is very much appreciated.  I'm sure everyone would agree we're more than happy that you even find time to keep it going and if it means cutting down on some of the work, then so be it. 


I don't think there are many people on here who could put in so much time and effort.  I couldn't! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Global Warming
Friday, April 8, 2016 9:30:02 PM

Here are the latest charts for April. A rather chilly weekend coming up but then it looks like turning relatively warm.


ScientificOregon
Saturday, April 9, 2016 6:46:31 AM

Thanks for the April charts GW. There has been talk of a cold period developing in the last 3rd of April but the met office don't have much support for this at the moment. Something to watch though.

My Question is as to Weather Forecasting: Is the Future Always set in stone or can Events in the Present Change the course of the Future?
Global Warming
Saturday, April 9, 2016 10:30:13 AM

Here is the list of predictions for April


ARTzeman
Saturday, April 9, 2016 11:09:49 AM

Thank You for the predictions GW.  Where would we be without You.


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Saturday, April 9, 2016 11:17:12 AM

Met Office Hadley               8.5c.         Anomaly         2.1c.    Provisional to 8th.


Metcheck                           8.04c.       Anomaly            0.02c.


Netweather                        8.69c.       Anomaly            0.6c.


Cheadle Hulme Weather     8.8c.         Anomaly            0.9c.


Clevedon Weather              9.6c.         Anomaly           -1.3c.


Mount  Sorrel                      8.7c.        Anomaly             0.6c.


Peasedown St John             9.1c.        Anomaly            -1.5c.  





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, April 9, 2016 7:56:23 PM

  Thank you GW! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
Sunday, April 10, 2016 11:10:34 AM

Met Office Hadley               8.3c.              Anomaly         1.7c.    Provisional to 9th.


Metcheck                           7.68c.            Anomaly         -0.34c.


Netweather                       9.49c.             Anomaly          0.4c.


Peasedown St John           8.8c.               Anomaly         -1.8 c         





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
Sunday, April 10, 2016 7:22:00 PM

Cheers, GW - but, like Carol says, don't feel under pressure to do this when you're snowed-under


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
Monday, April 11, 2016 11:24:23 AM

Met Office Hadley              8.1c.        Anomaly          1.4c.  Provisional  to  10th.


Metcheck                          7.78c.      Anomaly         -0.24c


Netweather                       8.38c.      Anomaly          0.39c. 


Peasedown  St  John          8.7c.        Anomaly         -1.9c.    





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
Monday, April 11, 2016 2:36:00 PM

Just found a few minutes to examine what the GFS 06z would mean for the CET, and the results are of some interest;


A rise to just over 8.4*C by Friday, after which a cold weekend drags it down to just under 8.0*C. It then varies around 7.8*C by around 0.2*C, finishing at near 7.9*C - slightly below the provisional value to the 10th!


The usual manner of caveats apply; this used raw numbers from one of the chilliest operational runs for the period that I've seen. This weekend is particularly cold, with widespread overnight frosts right down into the far south, which had not been seen away from the north on preceding runs.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
Monday, April 11, 2016 4:24:56 PM

Think it may rise toward the end of the following week. Temps of 14c by day and 5c at night... 


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ScientificOregon
Monday, April 11, 2016 5:41:09 PM


Just found a few minutes to examine what the GFS 06z would mean for the CET, and the results are of some interest;


A rise to just over 8.4*C by Friday, after which a cold weekend drags it down to just under 8.0*C. It then varies around 7.8*C by around 0.2*C, finishing at near 7.9*C - slightly below the provisional value to the 10th!


The usual manner of caveats apply; this used raw numbers from one of the chilliest operational runs for the period that I've seen. This weekend is particularly cold, with widespread overnight frosts right down into the far south, which had not been seen away from the north on preceding runs.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Some of the runs do look chilly. At the moment I have 8.5 for the 2/3 of April which gives me 8.35 to the 20th. With the April after mega el niño pattern I wouldn't be surprised to see to see the Cet finish below 8 though. Past events seem to agree with this setup. These northerly patterns can hold on a bit through spring. I think southerlies will start dominating from mid June.

My Question is as to Weather Forecasting: Is the Future Always set in stone or can Events in the Present Change the course of the Future?
ARTzeman
Tuesday, April 12, 2016 11:04:11 AM

Met Office Hadley            8.2c.          Anomaly         1.5c.       Provisional to 11th.


Metcheck                        7.94c.         Anomaly          -0.07c.


Netweather                     8.54c.         Anomaly           0.45c.


Peasedown St john           8.7c.          Anomaly           -1.9c.


  





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Wednesday, April 13, 2016 10:49:12 AM

Met  Office  Hadley             8.3c.           Anomaly         1.6c.      Provisional to  12th.


Metcheck                           8.0c.            Anomaly       -0.02c.


Netweather                        8.6c.           Anomaly         0.54c.


Cheadle Hulme Weather     8.5c.           Anomaly        -1.2c.


Clevedon  Weather             9.4c.           Anomaly        -1.4c.


Mount  Sorrel                     8.6c.           Anomaly          0.5c.


Peasedown St John            8.9c.           Anomaly        -0.7c.


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Thursday, April 14, 2016 12:19:07 PM

Met Office Hadley               8.4c.         Anomaly     1.5c.  Provisional to 13th.


Metcheck                            8.19c.       Anomaly     0.17c.


Netweather                         8.75c.       Anomaly     0.66c.


Peasedown St john              9.2c.         Anomaly     -1.4c.


   





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Friday, April 15, 2016 10:50:32 AM

Met Office Hadley               8.5c.          Anomaly         1.5c.   Provisional to 14th.


Metcheck                           8.22c.        Anomaly         0.22c.


Netweather                        8.85c.        Anomaly        0.76c.


Peasedown St John           9.3c           Anomaly       -1.3c. 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ScientificOregon
Friday, April 15, 2016 6:07:18 PM

Some recent runs are showing the last 10 days of April could be 3-4c below average

My Question is as to Weather Forecasting: Is the Future Always set in stone or can Events in the Present Change the course of the Future?
moomin75
Friday, April 15, 2016 7:00:49 PM


Some recent runs are showing the last 10 days of April could be 3-4c below average


Originally Posted by: ScientificOregon 

That would be useful for my CET prediction for April. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ARTzeman
Saturday, April 16, 2016 11:36:43 AM

Met Office Hadley                 8.5c.         Anomaly          1.4c.


Metcheck                             8.04c.        Anomaly          0.02c. 


Netweather                          8.79c.        Anomaly          0.7c.


Peasedown St John                9.3c.        Anomaly         -1.3c  





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Sunday, April 17, 2016 10:43:07 AM

Met Office Hadley           8.3c.       Anomaly        1.1c.    Provisional to 16th.


Metcheck                      7.81c.      Anomaly       -0.20c.


Netweather                   8.57c.      Anomaly        0.48c.


Peasedown St John         9.1c.        Anomaly        -1.5c.     





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Monday, April 18, 2016 11:10:49 AM

Met Office Hadley         8.1c.      Anomaly     0.8c.     provisional to 17th.


Metcheck                     7.78c.    Anomaly    -0.24c.


Netweather                  8.43c.    Anomaly     0.34c.


Peasedown St John       9.0c.      Anomaly     -1.6c.


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Twister
Monday, April 18, 2016 11:20:09 AM
Looks like the CET is going to creep southwards instead of towards my 8.6 prediction... rudeness.

Thanks for the regular updates ARTzeman 🙂
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

Remove ads from site

Ads