I don't blame the MetO or any other organisation as that is ridiculous, clearly the models and background signals pointed to a front loaded winter so that's what they indicated would happen, it didn't and chances are they are now trying to understand why. Amazingly Glosea5 and EC models are still predicting the same thing (northern/MLB and below average European Temperatures) the problem is a computer can't just look out of the window!

Whats more important is the implication that even with good signals Europe can't get a decent cold winter, for whatever reason this is of real concern moving forward as it could be our new climate state where a cold winter only occurs every decade or so because of some underlying atmospheric forcing.

This has to be a possibility as the pattern of cold US winters and warm European ones just keeps on repeating itself no matter what the background signals are.

All very depressing, welcome to the New World of Bexit, Trump and Bartlett Winters.

Andy

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The BBC forecasts nowadays are just an embarrassing joke. Was really sad to hear of the death of Ian McCaskill this week as, with meteorologists like Ian, John Kettley, Bill Giles and Michael Fish presenting, the BBC forecasts of the 80s and 90s were of a far higher standard than the woeful, unintelligible mess they have become over the last decade.

For the fourth weekend in a row, I believe they have forecast sunshine and what have I woken up to? The same grey, damp, depressing **** I've had to endure for the past three weekends as well as pretty much the entirety of the weeks in between 

Just when the hell is this gloom ever going to give up? It's just the same tedious pattern repeated ad nauseum. Sky clears overnight only for the grey crap to reappear by dawn like a stinking unwelcome smell. Do the overnight clear skies ever result in anything cold? Like hell they do.

This has to rank as the most prolonged period of dismal, depressing and unphotogenic dross since I got my first digital camera at the start of 2003.  About the only acceptable day over the past few weeks was Monday 5th Dec and there was also the afternoon of Thursday 8th. After that I'm struggling to think of anything. It is just absolutely dire. Unremittingly grey, damp, dull and horrible. The most unhealthy, good for nothing, winter weather imaginable.

The last period as bad as this was at the end of 2002 and even that relented to give a pleasant crisp and few frosty days around this time. The first third of January this year was easily the most revolting spell of weather in my memory but that was followed by a vastly improved second half of the month with frost and even some snow. I see no end in sight to the garbage at the moment

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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Brilliant. 😂😂😂😂

It's just crap here regardless. Last winter was very mild in North America with temperatures reaching 25C in Baltimore on Christmas Eve and 17C as far north as Ottawa.

In 2015 Buffalo, NY, had it's latest first winter snow since 1899 while we got ridiculously mild, grey crap. Fast forward a year and they are being plastered in snow while we endure more ridiculously mild, grey, crap 

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Yes achieving a -NAO seems to be incredibly difficult in winter these days whatever the indicators from teleconnections or the supposedly best computers in the World. We could be looking at another year when the modern era has defied what 'should' happen and just produced the same familiar set-up again.

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...except for the fact that there has been a negative NAO every day of the winter so far? 

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Lovely sunshine again today! Low of 1C with a slight frost, currently 4C.

Next few days don't look too bad either. 

Definitely don't envy northern parts of the US with their silly -30C temps. They are welcome to it.

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I remember in the 90's every year in October in Europe usually start in the low 20's then switch to near 0C by the end of the month then stay below freezing most of November to Feb so any time we get an easterly we get easily subzero maxes.  I used to observe the temps reading of Europe on German Channel teletext because we didn't have internet that time or good resource of weather information in here so I rely on German channels to find out the forecast for here.  I remember they forecasted around below -10C in Germany and the cold air reach to London with forecast of -2C temps.  It now very hard to get a subzero temps with Europe mostly west side are mild as us and more colder frequencies in E Med and Middle East.  Nicosia, Cyprus rarely get snow and was told it only happen once or nothing a decade now getting almost every year and they had one last year, the year before too and this year on 1st Jan with 1cm of snow cover shown on the picture outside Nicosia.

 

I think you know what I mean Michael - a negative NAO that can bring northerlies, or HLB in general that can give an extended cold spell.

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The Met Office forecast was for blocking, which would give a greater chance of a colder-than-average spell toward the beginning of winter - and blocking is generally what's happened. That the positioning & alignment of the block is not what delivers cold to the UK doesn't make the period not-blocked.

I don't understand how knowledgeable & experienced amateur weather enthusiasts can fail to realise that the sort of LRF'ing the Met Office does (still in an experimental phase, too, it has to be said) can only really pick up broad signals and talk of probabilities in terms of specific weather conditions for a given place. It cannot pinpoint the exact positioning & alignment of, say, blocks. Let's remember that if the block had been positioned just 500 miles further north & west (a tiny distance in a global meteorological sense), then the UK would have had a much different December so far, and perhaps there'd be less whingeing (although perhaps that'd be asking too much...)

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I hate to tell you, I have just checked the Berlin temperatures for every winter in the 90s and what you say is simply not true. A couple of years might just about fit the picture you describe but the vast majority certainly do not.

 Max temperatures Dec 1998-Feb 1999 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/klibild?WMO=10384&ZEITRAUM=12&ZEIT=28021999&ART=MAX&LANG=en&1481973359&ZUGRIFF=NORMAL&MD5=

1991-1992 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/klibild?WMO=10384&ZEITRAUM=12&ZEIT=29021992&ART=MAX&LANG=en&1481973526&ZUGRIFF=NORMAL&MD5= 

 

I could post several other years. The only really prolonged cold in Germany was during the winters 95-96 and to a lesser extent 96-97.

Ian, re. the NAO, I was simply correcting what you claimed. If you actually meant to write something extra or different but didn't, it's hardly up to me to try and guess what that was.

Edit: Very well put Saint but it seems much easier for people to take their frustration out on the Met Office.

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Winter temperatures in Europe have been on an upward trend for the past 3 decades. The 1961-1990 climatic period was abnormally cool in many places.

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I agree with that but I am yet to be convinced lrfs from the Met Office are measurably better now than in the late 1970s and early 80s when they were abandoned. Fads come and go. In the late 70s upper atmospheric pattern matching was being used I believe. At the turn of this century a correlation between May SSTs and the following winter came into vogue. A few years ago the focus switched to the strat and the high-top model (2012). This year I heard references being made to the weak polar vortex and the extent of Siberian snow cover. These ideas have been formalised by people such as Cohen in recent years but they are not new. Ironically I remember the same connections being made in the early 80s by the long range weather forecaster who used to write in the York Evening Press - I think his surnames was Baines but I'm not certain. 

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Dire for cold weather! So dull and overcast yet again - Only different is that its a degree or so colder by day than last week.12c instead of the 13 or 14c.

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Thanks what really got me too Andy. - I thought a front loaded winter meant a cold first half!? Well we have had two weeks of above average temperatures with not snow and little frost - and there was due to be cold weather returning with fog and frost when in fact next week it's turning milder and toward Christmas it will become unsettled!? There has been NO snow ...not even sleet or anything wintry about this dismal overcast boring month for winter weather enthusiasts and if there is only a month or less to go before the second half of winter which is due to be milder than average then what hope do we have? We had better hope for some cold weather between now and mid January then!?

Also it's colder in the USA especially the east and isn't it a deja-vu of last year that it's milder here - same for colder than average SE Europe means milder NW!? So snow in Egypt? Where next? Crete, Cyrpus?

This also goes to show that there is not connection between fewer sunspots denoting colder than average conditions, or More hurricanes increasing blocking or the rapid build-up of Siberian snow cover!? NOTHING!

WE are just having really bad luck!! Is the westerly QUBO or is the Polar vortex strengthening? Is it because we are at ENSO neutral and not a weak La Nina.? Why are we being punished from having colder spell? why!? Anyone!? If the met office were right - I thought any milder interludes would be short -lived with colder spells and more settled and frosty conditions were more probable than milder and unsettled!? Why the flip? Also what happened to the front loaded winter that was forecasted anyone!?

 

 

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GFS still bringing in quite a severe storm for Christmas Day. I wonder if this will be another year where we have had a notable storm over the Christmas period? So far in recent years, we've had:

Christmas Eve 1997
Boxing Day 1998
23 December-Christmas Eve 2013
Christmas Day 2016?

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Don't forget the OPI October Pattern Index, back in 2013 I think. Don't hear much about that now.

Not a very inspiring ECM day 10 mean with the Euroslug well in charge.

There was another made popular by 'jamtamarra' - but I forget what it was...

As to the Euroslug, I tend to wonder if its a symptom not a cause.

So why so much milder and zonality returning given that we had a weaker polar vortex, Increased and rapid Siberian snow cover in October, Fewer sun spots and more Atlantic hurricanes - why still no proper cold or blocking!?

It looks like there is no connection for a rapid build up of Siberian snow cover denoting a colder than average winter or an increase in Blocking. Also same goes for Hurricanes - just because it was a more active season doesn't increase the chance of Blocking! Also because we are approaching solar minimum and have fewer sunspots doesn't denote an increased chance of colder weather nor does a borderline ENSO neutral to weak La Nina - So why so mild so far with no cold weather for the first half of winter!? So much for a front loaded winter then eh!?

I really had good hopes for this December and January given the rapid build up of Siberian snow cover...! Just shockingly frustrating for all of us. Met Office got it wrong too in their monthly updates especially at the start of December - they meant colder spells are less likely NOT more likely than unsettled spells from the Atlantic. - Especially now we are expecting a heavy rain and strong gale force winds with a low pressure system with a centre of 950mb to batter the north of the country on Christmas Day.

 

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It will move out the way in March!

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Oh well....hopefully someone buys me a Kite for Christmas, Wellington Boots and an Umbrella 

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Of course this will never materialise but this is JUST FOR FUN OK?

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LOL, just what is the point in churning out actual pressure charts so far ahead?

Even if this did by chance actually verify then the forecast route to get there would likely be very different to what actually happened.

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oh come on 1997? what a load of tosh, it last snowed properly in December 2011 even in Leysdown-on-Sea which after all is a coastal village on the east side of a very flat Isle of Sheppey facing a large stretch of relatively warm sea, so your chances of getting anything are less than most!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2010%E2%80%9311_in_Great_Britain_and_Ireland 
but I do agree there has not been any significant widespread snow in England since Dec 2011, except for the one day slush events..

Alan - living in a part of the country with even less chance of snow than you!

This will cheer you all up

TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO REACH -50 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK

If you live in Mongolia .......

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