I agree with that but I am yet to be convinced lrfs from the Met Office are measurably better now than in the late 1970s and early 80s when they were abandoned. Fads come and go. In the late 70s upper atmospheric pattern matching was being used I believe. At the turn of this century a correlation between May SSTs and the following winter came into vogue. A few years ago the focus switched to the strat and the high-top model (2012). This year I heard references being made to the weak polar vortex and the extent of Siberian snow cover. These ideas have been formalised by people such as Cohen in recent years but they are not new. Ironically I remember the same connections being made in the early 80s by the long range weather forecaster who used to write in the York Evening Press - I think his surnames was Baines but I'm not certain. 

Thanks what really got me too Andy. - I thought a front loaded winter meant a cold first half!? Well we have had two weeks of above average temperatures with not snow and little frost - and there was due to be cold weather returning with fog and frost when in fact next week it's turning milder and toward Christmas it will become unsettled!? There has been NO snow ...not even sleet or anything wintry about this dismal overcast boring month for winter weather enthusiasts and if there is only a month or less to go before the second half of winter which is due to be milder than average then what hope do we have? We had better hope for some cold weather between now and mid January then!?

Also it's colder in the USA especially the east and isn't it a deja-vu of last year that it's milder here - same for colder than average SE Europe means milder NW!? So snow in Egypt? Where next? Crete, Cyrpus?

This also goes to show that there is not connection between fewer sunspots denoting colder than average conditions, or More hurricanes increasing blocking or the rapid build-up of Siberian snow cover!? NOTHING!

WE are just having really bad luck!! Is the westerly QUBO or is the Polar vortex strengthening? Is it because we are at ENSO neutral and not a weak La Nina.? Why are we being punished from having colder spell? why!? Anyone!? If the met office were right - I thought any milder interludes would be short -lived with colder spells and more settled and frosty conditions were more probable than milder and unsettled!? Why the flip? Also what happened to the front loaded winter that was forecasted anyone!?

Don't forget the OPI October Pattern Index, back in 2013 I think. Don't hear much about that now.

Not a very inspiring ECM day 10 mean with the Euroslug well in charge.

There was another made popular by 'jamtamarra' - but I forget what it was...

As to the Euroslug, I tend to wonder if its a symptom not a cause.

So why so much milder and zonality returning given that we had a weaker polar vortex, Increased and rapid Siberian snow cover in October, Fewer sun spots and more Atlantic hurricanes - why still no proper cold or blocking!?

It looks like there is no connection for a rapid build up of Siberian snow cover denoting a colder than average winter or an increase in Blocking. Also same goes for Hurricanes - just because it was a more active season doesn't increase the chance of Blocking! Also because we are approaching solar minimum and have fewer sunspots doesn't denote an increased chance of colder weather nor does a borderline ENSO neutral to weak La Nina - So why so mild so far with no cold weather for the first half of winter!? So much for a front loaded winter then eh!?

I really had good hopes for this December and January given the rapid build up of Siberian snow cover...! Just shockingly frustrating for all of us. Met Office got it wrong too in their monthly updates especially at the start of December - they meant colder spells are less likely NOT more likely than unsettled spells from the Atlantic. - Especially now we are expecting a heavy rain and strong gale force winds with a low pressure system with a centre of 950mb to batter the north of the country on Christmas Day.

Oh well....hopefully someone buys me a Kite for Christmas, Wellington Boots and an Umbrella 

Of course this will never materialise but this is JUST FOR FUN OK?

LOL, just what is the point in churning out actual pressure charts so far ahead?

Even if this did by chance actually verify then the forecast route to get there would likely be very different to what actually happened.

This will cheer you all up

TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO REACH -50 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK

If you live in Mongolia .......

The annoying thing is well probably get our proper cold arrive in Spring 

.....just when we start to get the spring bedding plants in 

LOL at the quoted bit. You don't live here, do you?

Being a coastal village didn't cause any problems until 1998 (onwards) - before that it was the opposite, we had far more snow here than most parts of southern England. That was because we really do benefit from easterlies... the last midwinter one of which was 1997.

I'll say it again. The last time we in Leysdown had any of the following was January 1997. Before then we had one or more in the following years: 1996, 1995, 1993, 1991, 1987, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1981, 1979, 1970... you get the idea.

• Powder snow (as opposed to the slushy, sopping wet easy-to-melt stuff we've had since then)


• A high of -1C or lower


• Icicles


• Sublimation (as opposed to melting) of snow

While I appreciate that inland the increase in temperatures hasn't made much difference to snow chances, here by the coast it's made one hell of a difference.

Darren is 100% correct. Even up on the Downs, its been close to marginal more often than not. DPs have been too high, we get mild sectors entrained and the flow has often been NE rather than E. Even Jan 1997 was a tad underwhelming.

Feb 1991 was the last really decent easterly and Jan 1987 remains the standout snow event of my lifetime with a daytime max of -8C recorded on the 12th (I think) in parts of Kent.

Think it's safe to write-off December for any proper wintry weather.

Turning out to be a [so far] rubbish winter - especially so after the pre-winter hype and promise

I haven't seen low level powdery snow - or anything close to a snowdrift - since I moved from Suffolk in 1995

Just saying

Don't worry.  We'll never, ever, fall for the hype again.....

....  Until next year 

Christmas period now almost certainly a dire unseasonable write-off for the fifth year out of six which will assure this month’s place amongst the all time worst, as well as setting a new record set for mildest pair of consecutive December’s. Late December should be the coldest period the year. It is ridiculous that it is now six years since there has been any snow at this time and beyond incredulous that, apart from 2014, there has barely been a frost either.

Yet another dark, grey sunless day today, to add to the pile, with the added misery of a nasty cold wind. The grimmest day yet. A fortnight since the sole frost of this ghastly write-off month and eight consecutive days with rain. Completely useless, worthless weather and beyond depressing. Just what is there to enjoy about these endlessly damp, grey and miserable conditions?

I said I wouldn’t be surprised if no winter month matches November’s frost duration but I could never have imagined that this month would be so bad as to be a virtual repeat of December 2015. Now I’m wondering if the entire winter will be able to match November’s frost duration. Nothing but windy and/or cloudy frost-free crud in the outlook. It looks so bad that we could even beat last year’s repellent spell of 27 consecutive frost-free nights from 14th Dec to 8th Jan.

Just unbelievable the depths to which our weather as sunk. All the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel are well and truly gone now leaving us reduced to drawing from the stew, dust and grime of the rat infested foundations beneath the cellar

A sunny day today - and I'm liking the look of the high pressure-dominated outlook. After Sunday, no more low pressure. 

Brilliant!  And I totally agree with you Richard.

I'm patiently waiting for the Spring predictions/forecast thread to open.

I bet well see plenty of these 

And you just know that summer will herald persistent HLB