The two are not mutually exclusive. I've said this repeatedly but ana warm fronts do not follow the usual rules. It is possible to get snow if the 850hpa temperatures are 0C on an ana warm front. In this type of situation where you have low level stagnating cold the uppers are completely irrelevant and the following factors completely dominate:

1) Precipitation coherence: Weak incoherent bands give rain, strong coherent bands with a high upper horizontal gradient give snow.

2) Wind strength: Strong winds give rain, static conditions give snow

So forget the uppers, as long as they are below 0C.

Certainly a intriguing and decent looking chart at day 6. Hopefully ecm will go down a similar route and we can tell just how cold it is.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Another evening with very little chance in the overall outlook down here - a marked change to milder conditions by the 24th:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1
(GEFS)

....and similar to this morning's EPS:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Hopefully this evening's ECM will give us something different, but I wouldn't get my hopes up!

Comment made on the BBC News Channel forecast just now about milder weather next week.  They must be relatively confident to "punt" that comment this far out, so I'm with you on the pessimism  WRT a change of model direction. You never know though

Gfs has things mild from this Saturday ..otherwise it's s boring benign week weatherwise.

Time for me to give it a break for a week I think. And see if there are any signs of blocking during next week runs.

Look on the bright side everybody. Firstly, we can stop all the nonsense of trawling through the model output every 6 hours, since we know it is going to be a turgid, rank, ghastly mildfest for the foreseeable. In addition, we won't have to fret about inevitable downgrades, since when the model output has hit rock bottom, as it has this week, it is not possible for it to downgrade, so that is one less thing to worry about. Just get used to another rubbish winter passing us by without any memorable events and be thankful at least, that we have not suffered incessant rain and floods this winter and do something useful instead of hoping for the Holy Grail of a Beasterly or a Greenie actually materialising sometime ever.

Cold in Europe? Swept away in the twinkling off an eye (or at least in a week's time). And with the further link on these charts, turning pretty wet in that week.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

I don't want to sound too negative or disparaging but it is much more straightforward to forecast mild/zonal weather several days out than to do the same for cold weather.

How many times do you see nailed on zonal weather unexpectedly break down to give a cold spell

And that is what is making this thread hard to read lately.

God knows what a newbie trying to learn about model watching is able to make of it all.

To be honest, part of the problem is that without specifics you could argue that both those views are either correct or indeed wrong!

I could hazard a summary but things are so messy it could change in a few hours...

The coming few days will be mild in the north although gradually getting a little closer to normal towards the end of the week. It will be less mild throughout the further southeast you go. By the end of the week things look like becoming more mobile. Initially the ECM has pressure higher to the south than the GFS. At this stage it is hard to say how cool or mild it would be as small changes could make big differences. Beyond then most available output shows a mobile pattern continuing but with detail uncertain.

I realise it is low on specifics but so are the charts in the medium to longer term! No heatwave and no big freeze look imminent.

Its been a while since we've seen 'the spikes of zonality' on the GEFS. A strong signal now for a milder, mobile and wetter period between 23-30th January. 

yes gusty a milder wetter pattern looks a little more likely now, and even BBC weather are calling next week unsettled.

Yes. Jacko. We have pretty much cross model agreement at T+144 for a mild SW'ly flow to return. I'm cautiously optimistic but a little nervous about calling it just yet. I've mentioned it to close members of my family and will probably go public if we still have cross model agreement at T+72 ! .

Perhaps Kevin could start up a 'where did that SW'ly come from' thread 

If only it was as easy to get cold this way....

Well they will probably learn more about human psychology than meteorology that's for sure! 

Well I don't buy it. We all know that cold Siberian easterlies are the form horse in the antique age, and once in, they'll be with us for decades. The FFS charts will lead the way as we all know, and the GFS/UKMO/ECMWF will all fall into line next week - even Navgem will follow, tipping his hat, as we all know. Pretty soon, I should have my "guardian angel" come out from under the rocks and descend upon this thread, to tell you all to apologise to me, for I am so right as we all know. After all, even thought the charts show different, I am just calling it as I see it....

Class .

Anyway back to the models. I see the GFS is leading us up the garden path at T+240. More jam tomorrow. Feeling balmy over the wheat fields of the south.  

erihspohrS is that you? 

Only up to +48hr but so far the 18Z looks to be an improvement on the 12Z.

552 isopleth a bit closer to Greenland on the 18Z

Everything seems shifted further to the west. I wonder how this will affect the LP that comes later, will more energy go south?

Daytime maxima 4 days hence - Cold Europe:

It seems absurd to suggest its guaranteed that zonality will return when this kind of thing is being predicted for Friday. Only slight changes in the pattern would produce something very different.